What's the opening line on vendors' chances to be Petersburg's casino partner?

PETERSBURG – The five vendors hoping to do casino business with Petersburg will have what amounts to their community job interviews next month, and just like with any recruit, they will undoubtedly put on their best faces and cases for why they should be the one to make history in a city already chock full of it.

Bally’s, The Cordish Companies, Penn Entertainment, Rivers Casino and The Warrenton Group will take part in an April 14 town hall meeting at the Petersburg Public Library. There, they will take turns showing off their resumes and drawings about how they could do for Petersburg just what the vendors are doing in Virginia’s four other cities that either host or will host a casino.

Based on The Progress-Index's research of each vendor's background, here are the early odds of each vendor getting the Petersburg casino, in reverse order:

5. The Warrenton Group

Pros: Stability. The D.C.-based real-estate firm has proven its mettle in corporate developments through all its properties in and around metro Washington. You hear very little complaints about the way it is run, so overall positivity could play in its favor.

Cons: Newbie in the gambling industry. A Petersburg casino would be its first venture into the business, meaning it really has no track record to support. I am not sure Petersburg would not want to be the litmus test for an inaugural foray into such uncharted waters, especially since its almost-sibling host cities settled on more established brands such as Hard Rock in Bristol and Caesar’s in Danville.

Odds of getting the business: Not a complete bust. While The Warrenton Group may not win the casino itself, it could still be involved by buying into whoever wins the bid as a partner in developing the retail, corporate and residential properties that would orbit a Petersburg casino.

4. The Cordish Companies

Pros: A familiarity with Petersburg. Cordish unsuccessfully partnered with Petersburg City Council on last year’s legislative showdown with Richmond. We already have an idea what Cordish will bring to the table – a rebooted and retooled version of its $1.4 billion proposal for a casino-centric multi-use development for the likely landing spot of Wagner Road in south Petersburg.

Cons: A familiarity with Petersburg. While familiarity could be a pro, it also breeds contempt, and in this case, that contempt may be too much of an obstacle to overcome on two fronts.

First, the labor front. One of the big factors against Petersburg last year was the local hospitality union’s disdain for Cordish. Local 23 and its allies claimed Cordish had a history of not being hospitable to its unionized workers at its other locations, so therefore, that trend would continue in Virginia. They lobbied hard in favor of Richmond, and that lobbying generated enough support among Democrats in the General Assembly to empathize with them. Cordish has denied that claim, noting that it has labor peace at its venues now and would do the same for a Virginia location

Second, the public perception front. Cordish is a throwback to last year’s debacle when the push was led by political pariah Sen. Joe Morrissey. There were a lot of behind-the-scenes activity during Petersburg's flirtation with hosting the fifth casino, just as there was when the other cities were setting up theirs. However, given the overall level of distrust many Petersburg citizens have with their local government, the fact that a billion-dollar investment for something that would bring millions of dollars in needed revenue was done in the shadows did not resonate well here.

This time around, Petersburg government has taken a mostly hands-off approach to avoid a repeat of the last time. With last year's defeat in the Democratic primary, Morrissey is no longer a factor, so the city relied on brand new leadership in the General Assembly to push it through. Even Del. Kim Taylor, R-Dinwiddie County − who carried the casino in the House of Delegates last year − was kept at arm's length this time around.

Plus, Cordish took an all-or-nothing approach with the development. The company said that if the Assembly followed a state suggestion of having casinos in both Petersburg and Richmond instead of solely Petersburg, it would fold and walk away from the table. Dueling casinos did not happen, but Cordish’s promise did. Instead of finding another centerpiece for a mixed-use development similar to ones it had done in Kansas City or Louisville, the company said, “Thank you for the time” and moved on.

Odds of getting the business: Snake eyes, likely. The General Assembly made no secret that it would watch Petersburg’s progress through the process closely, and that also includes the successful vendor. A Cordish choice could jeopardize the hospitality union’s newfound support for Petersburg, which in turn could mean fallout from the Democrats who control (albeit narrowly) both legislative chambers. In addition, Petersburg residents have long memories, and the possibility of council possibly consummating another deal with Cordish only could generate even more distrust in the project.

3. Penn Entertainment

Pros: An established vendor in the industry. As gambling began expanding from its long-established summit points in Atlantic City and Las Vegas, the Hollywood brand helped lead that exodus into places you would not normally associated with gambling glitz and glamour – notably the “mountain mama” of West Virginia. That makes Penn among the top choices of nurturing a fledgling industry in an area not used to it.

Cons: Past history. Penn Entertainment had a reputation for not working and playing well with others within the casino industry. It lobbied Maryland hard back in the early 2010s to keep casinos out of the Old Line State because they would pull visitors away from Charles Town into the Washington suburbs of National Harbor and Arundel Mills, Maryland. If the company was willing to cross state borders to protect its interest, then what does that possibly say for marking its territory with casinos in the same state?

Odds of getting the business: 50/50. Let's use a gambling analogy for this ... Penn and the other vendors are at the blackjack table. Penn's first two cards total 12 and the dealer is showing an Ace. Hit, and it could draw closer to or even get 21. But if a 10 or a face card is drawn, Penn busts. Penn finds itself at the middle of this odds-making, much like the 12 it shows at the table is at the middle of 21. The company is going to need the right card dealt from Petersburg, and that card has to be a 9. Anything else and Penn could walk away from the table empty-handed. We are just not sure how many 9's will be left in Petersburg's deck once all the cards are dealt to the others at the table.

2. Rivers Casino

Pros: A proven track record in the commonwealth. Rivers opened Virginia's first full-fledged permanent casino in 2023 (Bristol and Danville are in temporary locations and Norfolk is still on the drawing board). Since then, it has continued to be a major draw for visitors to Portsmouth. A recent report noted it had brought in $250 million in gambling revenue to Virginia in the first year alone, with expectations of exceeding that in future years.

Plus, opening a second location 76 miles away in Petersburg could be the start of a major footprint in Virginia should future legislatures decide to open more localities up to casinos. Rivers is also located in the heart of the district represented by Sen. Louise Lucas, one of the more influential political figures in Virginia who went from thorn in Petersburg’s paw during the Joe Morrissey years to a chief co-patron of the bill with Joe Morrissey’s successor, Lashrecse Aird of Petersburg.

Cons: Past labor relations. While things seem to be good between union workers and Rivers operations in Portsmouth and elsewhere, that was not always the case. In 2013, according to published news reports, Rivers appeared hostile toward allowing its workers at its Pittsburgh property to unionize. That prompted a lot of threats about going to the National Labor Relations Board. It’s better now, 10 years later. But with labor being such a prominent platform for Democrats who now control the General Assembly, and t

Odds of getting the business: Better than 50/50 but not quite a sure thing. Virginia’s gambling industry is still a toddler growing up, and we may not be ready for the beginnings of a monopoly at this stage of growth. It just depends upon what the only vendor ranked ahead of Rivers brings to town. It will either be high- or low-tide for Rivers.

1. Bally’s

Pros: Brand recognition and history in the business. Bally’s is a major player in the entertainment industry, from pinball machines to casinos and everything in between. Remember the old "Will Build to Suit Tenant” signs we used to see on vacant properties? Bally’s probably has a number of blueprints it could tailor to suit Petersburg, and each one likely has a track record of success.

Plus, the presence of another major player to join Hard Rock, Caesar’s and Rivers provides a feeling of legitimacy to Virginia’s casino future, saying that if big brands are going to take a chance on us, then what’s to stop others from coming to see what we got? It adds an entertainment flavor to the Virginia-Maryland Interstate 95 corridor anchored to the north by MGM National Harbor and to the south by Bally’s in Petersburg.

Cons: Issues with startups elsewhere. According to an editorial March 11 in the Chicago Tribune, Bally's is in a tight spot with its new casino in the Windy City. The editorial said Bally's told the Nevada Gaming Control Board it was about $800 million shy cash-wise in its $1.3 billion resort proposal, but as cited in the editorial by a gaming-industry news website, the company's chief executive officer told the board that shortfall will be addressed by the end of the summer "hopefully." In the meantime, Bally's Chicago temporarily set up shop in the city's River North area while the tower resort is finished.

Granted, Petersburg and Chicago are as different as night and day. However, Petersburg noted in its Request for Proposal that it wants a destination community to spring from the casino's presence. If Bally's is having issues in a major U.S. city, could that be a barometer for potential problems in a smaller U.S. city?

Odds of getting the business: The favorite. In spite its issues in Chicago, Bally's has more than a solid track record in casino and entertainment-venue developments. If you sampled interest among the target population for gambling − a two hours' drive radius around the casino − by showing them the names of all five vendors, the chances are very good that they will choose a widely known brand. That is certainly no shade on the other vendors by any means; it's just the cold, hard consumer facts that we tend to migrate toward things we recognize. In addition, having three big dogs in the gambling industry running Virginia casinos certainly makes the state more attractive should the gaming horizons expand.

The town hall will start at 2 p.m. April 14 in the main auditorium of the library. Aird will host it.

Bill Atkinson (he/him/his) is an award-winning journalist who covers breaking news, government and politics. Reach him at batkinson@progress-index.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @BAtkinson_PI.

This article originally appeared on The Progress-Index: The odds of landing Petersburg's casino business starts with vendor histories