After weeks of quiet tropics, hurricane forecasters are watching a disturbance off Africa

National Hurricane Center
·2 min read

The National Hurricane Center is watching a newly formed tropical wave that emerged in the eastern Atlantic early Saturday morning. Meteorologists are forecasting the disturbance to move off the west coast of Africa this weekend.

Forecasters placed a 20% chance of gradual development over the next five days as the system moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the middle part of next week, the hurricane center said in its 8 a.m. Saturday advisory on Twitter.

Tropical cyclone activity is not expected any time in the next 48 hours anywhere near the United States or Caribbean as of Saturday morning.

In terms of local weather, a regular summer pattern of afternoon thunderstorms is expected in South Florida and the Keys on Saturday and Sunday, with a 60% chance before settling a bit to 40% Monday.

Colorado State University meteorologist Philip Klotzbach noted that this is the hurricane center’s first tracked disturbance since July 13.

But that is not altogether unusual in July and doesn’t indicate a slow season should be expected in the generally more active August and September months. Hurricane season ends Nov. 30.

On Friday, Michael Lowry, WPLG’s hurricane specialist, wrote on his Eye on the Tropics blog that it was likely that hurricane center forecasters would start tracking a line of disturbances lined up over Africa that would begin rolling into the tropical Atlantic after the weekend.

Concerning the new disturbance, Lowry posted on Saturday an update. “Given the trajectory and steering pattern ahead, early odds favor a track north of the Caribbean,” he wrote.

NOAA’s revised predictions issued earlier this week indicated there could still be 11 to 17 more named storms in the next four months, before the 2022 season ends.

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