Week 7 Las Vegas market report
How ‘bout those Jacksonville Jaguars? Humiliated by both a 0-5 record and the fact that they entered Week 6 as the biggest underdogs in NFL history, Gus Bradley’s team found a way to put forth their best effort of the season on the road against the high-powered Denver Broncos in a 35-19 loss.
It may sound crazy to some, but I like the Jaguars this weekend as 7.5-point home dogs to the San Diego Chargers. It’s a short week for the Bolts following their 19-9 Monday night win over Indianapolis that involves cross country travel and an early start time. Plus, San Diego has so far demonstrated this season that they are incapable of playing two good games in a row.
Just a hunch.
Week 7 bye: New Orleans, Oakland
AFTER SIX WEEKS
Home teams: 50-39-3 (.561)
Favorites: 47-42-3 (.528)
Home dogs: 18-15 (.545)
Home favorites: 32-24-3 (.571)
Overs: 49-43 (.532)
CLICK HERE to check out all of the current Week 7 lines.
Note: All lines courtesy of the LVH sports book in Las Vegas.
Dallas Cowboys (3-3, 0-2 road) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3, 0-2 home)
When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: PK
Current: Philadelphia -3 (even)
US PRESSWIREIt looks like Nick Foles will make his second straight start this Sunday against Dallas.
Analysis: Something’s got to give in this one because Philadelphia is winless at home in 2013 while Dallas has yet to notch a victory on the road. The Cowboys have covered the number in five of their last six contests, but are just 5-15 ATS over their last 20 games following a straight-up win. Meanwhile, the Eagles—winners of two straight—are a disappointing 6-21-1 ATS over their last 28 homes games. This is a curious move when you consider the fact that Philadelphia’s .500 record is comprised of three wins against teams who are currently a combined 1-15 on the season.
Trends: The road team is 4-1 ATS over the last five meetings in this series.
Seattle Seahawks (5-1, 2-1 road) at Arizona Cardinals (3-3, 2-0 home)
When: Thursday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Seattle -4.5
Current: Seattle -6.5
Analysis: Since 2012, home teams playing on Thursday night are just 12-11 straight-up and 9-14 against the spread. Go one step further and add the role of “home dog” to the equation and you get a record of 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS. Not a very appealing trend for those with an eye on the Cardinals this week, but let’s also consider the fact that the Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Arizona, while the Cardinals are 4-0 ATS over their last four games following a straight-up loss. If this line somehow gets to Seattle -7, we’ll be all over the Cardinals.
Trends: The home team is 4-0 ATS over the last five meetings in this series.
Houston Texans (2-4, 1-2 road) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-0, 3-0 home)
When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Kansas City -4.5
Current: Kansas City -6.5
Analysis: Make way, Tampa Bay, because there’s a new dumpster fire in the NFL that resides in Houston, where the Texans are lucky to be 2-4 instead of 0-6 (credit San Diego and Tennessee for blowing late leads in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively). Houston has been outscored 72-16 over the last two weeks, is 0-7 ATS over their last seven games overall and takes on a Kansas City team this Sunday that has covered the number in four straight contests. No surprises here to see the line moving towards Andy Reid’s undefeated Chiefs team.
Trends: Houston is 0-6 ATS over their last six road games while Kansas City is 7-2 ATS over their last nine games played in the month of October.
Chicago Bears (4-2, 1-1 road) at Washington Redskins (1-4, 0-2 home)
When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: PK
Current: Washington -1
Analysis: Despite a 4-2 record, the Bears are just 1-5-1 ATS over their last seven games overall, with three straight against the spread losses. On the other side of the field resides a Washington team that has turned a profit exactly once in 2013 (Week 4 at Oakland). Take note that Chicago is just 1-9-1 ATS over their last 11 games after giving up more than 350 total yards in the previous game while Washington is only 3-12-2 ATS over their last 17 games after surrendering less than 250 yards in the previous contest. This game has “pass” written all over it.
Trends: Chicago is 0-5 ATS over their last five games against NFC opposition while Washington is 5-1 ATS over their last six games against teams with a winning record.
Denver Broncos (6-0, 2-0 road) at Indianapolis Colts (4-2, 2-1 home)
When: Sunday, 8:30pm ET
Open: Denver -5.5
Current: Denver -6.5
Manning returns to Indianapolis Sunday night to face his successor in Andrew Luck.
Analysis: The Broncos may be shooting the lights out from an offensive point of view, but the team’s weekly point spreads have become so inflated that despite a 6-0 record, Denver has covered the number just once over the last four weeks. That’s worth keeping in mind entering Week 7, as the Broncos are once again big road favorites against an Indianapolis squad that bounces back very well after a loss. The Colts are 9-1 ATS over their last ten games following a defeat in the previous contest and are also 20-9-2 ATS over their last 31 games against teams with a winning record. Sunday night football, coming off a loss, the return of Peyton Manning. Expect a big effort from Chuck Pagano’s squad this weekend.
Trends: Denver is 7-3-1 ATS over their last 11 games overall while Indianapolis is 7-2 ATS over their last nine home contests.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-2, 1-2 road) at Detroit Lions (4-2, 2-0 home)
When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Detroit -2.5
Current: Detroit -3 (even)
Analysis: The second leg of back-to-back road contests takes the Bengals to Detroit for a non-conference showdown with a Lions team that is 5-2 ATS over their last seven games overall. Take a look at what Cincinnati has done on the road this season: The Bengals blew 21-10 third quarter lead at Chicago in Week 1 and lost 24-21, came out flat against the Browns in Week 4 and lost 17-6 and blew a 24-10 fourth quarter lead against the Bills this past Sunday, only to sneak past Buffalo 27-24 in overtime. This is not a good road team and given the fact that it’s Cincinnati’s second away contest in eight days and it’s coming against an unfamiliar opponent, we not only agree with the line move, but have already gotten down on the Lions.
Trends: Cincinnati is 3-7-1 ATS over their last 11 games against teams with a winning record while Detroit is 5-1 ATS over their last six games played in the month of October.
THE REST
New England Patriots (5-1, 2-1 road) at New York Jets (3-3, 2-1 home)
When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: New England -3.5
Current: New England -4
Baltimore Ravens (3-3, 1-2 road) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-4, 0-2 home)
When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Pittsburgh -1.5
Current: Pittsburgh -2
Cleveland Browns (3-3, 1-1 road) at Green Bay Packers (3-2, 2-0 home)
When: Sunday, 4:25pm ET
Open: Green Bay -10.5
Current: Green Bay -10
Buffalo Bills (2-4, 0-2 road) at Miami Dolphins (3-2, 1-1 home)
When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Miami -9
Current: Miami -9
San Diego Chargers (3-3, 1-2 road) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6, 0-2 home)
When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: San Diego -7.5
Current: San Diego -7.5
San Francisco 49ers 4-2, 1-1 road) at Tennessee Titans (3-3, 2-1 home)
When: Sunday, 4:05pm ET
Open: San Francisco -4.5
Current: San Francisco -4.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5, 0-2 road) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4, 1-2 home)
When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Atlanta -7
Current: Atlanta -7
St. Louis Rams (3-3, 1-2 road) at Carolina Panthers (2-3, 1-1 home)
When: Sunday, 1:00pm ET
Open: Carolina -6
Current: Carolina -6
Minnesota Vikings (1-4, 0-2 road) at New York Giants (0-6, 0-2 home)
When: Monday, 8:30pm ET
Open: New York -3
Current: New York -3 (-120)
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This story originally appeared on Nationalfootballpost.com
