Week 14 Fantasy Over/Unders: Ginn, among others, to get you a playoff win

With the fantasy playoffs on the horizon, this week’s OVER/UNDER piece takes on a slightly different personality. Including is a DFS snapshot for the upcoming week and BOLD predictions for what players boom/bust during the most important time of the fantasy football year.

Nerves are on high this week as fantasy fanatics enter the second season. What largely cherished commodity, started in 50 percent or more of Yahoo leagues, will lay an egg in Week 14?

Dalton – JORDY NELSON. The Packers are at home, and the loss of Earl Thomas helps, but this is still a tough matchup for Nelson. The Seahawks have allowed the third-fewest touchdowns to wide receivers (nine) this season, and Nelson’s value is especially reliant upon hitting paydirt. I wouldn’t sit him, but this is a difficult draw to open the fantasy playoffs.

Brandon – MATT RYAN. The Rams have been a tough fantasy matchup for most QBs that have faced them this season, with only three QBs landing inside the top 15 against them. Notable signal callers that failed to land higher than a No. 15 spot against them include Tom Brady (last week), Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson, so they haven’t just faced a bunch of patsies. And the Rams are especially tough at home, where they have yielded just the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the QB position. With go-to wideout Julio Jones dealing with a turf toe injury, I have serious reservations about the prospects of Ryan being a QB1-level commodity this week.

Andy –Not only does MARCUS MARIOTA have a brutal assignment this week (Denver), but he won’t actually face a friendly matchup for the remainder of the fantasy season. He travels to Kansas City in Week 15, then to Jacksonville. For me, he’s basically a drop at this point. Great player, but you won’t use him in the money weeks.

Scott – LEGARETTE BLOUNT has rumbled to a Top 10 season in the backfield, serving as New England’s goal-line and game-closing back. Generally you’d love him at home with the Patriots favored, as they are this week. But Baltimore’s defense scares me in all facets — per Football Outsiders, the Ravens are No. 1 against the run and No. 5 against the pass. Baltimore’s also one of the few teams unintimidated by a Foxboro date; John Harbaugh’s crew has two wins in its last five trips here (compare that to the rest of the NFL), and none of the New England wins have been lopsided. Throw in the Patriots in a post-Gronk world, and I don’t think this sets up as a Blount game. Maybe it’s just not a Patriots game; Tom Brady has a mere 12 touchdown passes in his last 10 Baltimore games.

Brad – T.Y. HILTON. He’s a targets hog, ranking No. 8 in the category at his position, but the Texans have had his number in recent meetings, including his last matchup Week 6 (3-49-0). Houston could be down corner Jonathan Joseph, a massive blow, but I suspect Hilton will lock horns with A.J. Bouye, who ranks No. 1 in passer rating allowed (33.2), often. If the case, it could be a very profitable day for Moncrief and not Hilton. Mark me down for a final tally in range of 4-66-0.

Conversely, what largely overlooked asset, under 50 percent started in Yahoo leagues, will earn ‘hero’ status this weekend?

Brandon – LADARIUS GREEN. Green is my No. 2 ranked tight end this week. He tallied a 6/110/TD line vs the Giants last week, and I think, now that he’s healthy, the towering, athletic target is a perfect secondary option (to Antonio Brown) for Big Ben – I expect to budding romance to continue to blossom against a Buffalo defense that has allowed three tight ends to top the century mark in receiving yards this season. I give Green a good shot at becoming the fourth.

Andy –KENNY BRITT hasn’t seen less than six targets in any game since Week 4, and he’s about to face an Atlanta defense that ranks dead last against the pass. In any given week, he’s the player most likely to score the Rams’ lone offensive touchdown. Britt has put together a heroic season, all things considered. He should be good for 65-plus yards and a score in Week 14.Brad – TED GINN JR. Admittedly, I nearly dropped my laptop keystroking Ginn’s name, but the Crisco-handed wide receiver deserves much credit. Over the past three weeks only Antonio Brown has outscored him on a per game basis. During that stretch, the Panther has amassed a 12-241-3 line netting a ridiculous 20.1 yards per catch. Given Carolina’s problems on D and the fact his opponent, San Diego, has surrendered the 10th-most 20-plus yard pass plays this year, it’s entirely believable Ginn surpasses 65 yards with yet another touchdown.

Scott – I like Brad’s call, sipping on Ginn and Juice. Another wideout who might surprise for those digging deep is PIERRE GARCON. The forgotten Washington wideout has quietly posted a 23-318-1 line since the bye a month back, putting him neck-and-neck with Jamison Crowder for fantasy relevance. Forget the starting numbers; Garcon is owned in just 35 percent of Yahoo leagues. Philadelphia’s slumping defense is something to attack; consider what the Packers and Eagles did to it the last two weeks. If Jordan Reed misses another game, all the more reason to let No. 88 back into your fantasy world.

Dalton – MALCOLM MITCHELL. He has three touchdowns over the past three games and saw 10 targets last week. They are at home as touchdown favorites against a Ravens defense that defends the run extremely well yet has yielded the 11th most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Tied to an elite offense (and one needing to replace a bunch of targets with Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola out), it’s surprising Mitchell is owned in less than 50 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Donning the DFS cap, what commodity is terribly UNDERVALUED in Week 14?

Andy –Find a way to squeeze TYLER LOCKETT into a fantasy lineup this week, if at all possible. He’s facing a Green Bay defense that’s allowed a whopping 8.2 yards per pass attempt, and the third most fantasy points to opposing receivers. There’s no way the Packers can hope to contain Lockett. Collect all possible shares of Seattle’s passing game.

Scott – Although it hasn’t been the most efficient show, BRANDON LAFELL has a 12-165-1 log over three games since A.J. Green went down. His 5-95-1 showing past week could easily be repeated, given how Cleveland has no interest in stopping opponents, by land or by air.

Dalton – LADARIUS GREEN. He sure looks like a clear TE1 now back healthy and in Pittsburgh’s offense. It’s an especially tricky position to fill this week, and at just $13, sign me up.

Conversely, what DFS option is the most OVERVALUED in Week 14?

Scott – Normally THEO RIDDICK is the type of player I want to talk myself into, but pass-catching backs have not found space against the Bears this year. Look at the spreadsheet — Chicago has allowed a scant 43 catches for 309 yards to opposing backs, without a touchdown. In the first meeting, Riddick collected 15 touches, but they went for just 58 yards (11-31 rushing, 4-27 receiving).

Brandon – BRANDIN COOKS. A $27 price tag seems exorbitant for a receiver that is 67th in fantasy popints at the position over the past three weeks and has finished with 7.7 fantasy points or less in four of his past five games. And the matchup history offers little encouragement, as Cooks is averaging just 52.7 yards and has failed to score a TD in three career meetings with the suddenly hot Buccaneers.

Andy –I try to veer away from skill players with turf toe injuries as a general rule, so I want no part of JULIO JONES and his $37 price tag. Julio is normally the sort of high-ceiling player who can carry you to a money finish, but he’s off the board for me until he’s back to full health.

Marcus Mariota, faced with a daunting matchup against the Denver Broncos, is a divisive figure for Week 14 fantasy. Total fantasy points against the ‘No Fly Zone’ 16.9.

Brad – OVER. The hottest quarterback in fantasy since Week 5 (25.1 fppg), Mariota should dodge a Broncos trampling. Cam Newton and Drew Brees are the only passers to eclipse the proposed number, but with an extra week to prepare, I suspect Mariota delivers surprising results, a total similar to what Newton totaled Week 1 (194-1-1-54-1). His scoring duality, familiar surroundings and Brandon Marshall’s absence raise his profile. He and Delanie Walker are sure to record a beautiful tune in the Music City.

Scott – I hate to fade someone who’s been a stud for two months, but give me the UNDER. The Titans are still reluctant to give Mariota the full car-wash treatment on offense, and the ordinary Titans receivers don’t figure to get separation against the best secondary in the NFL.

Dalton – UNDER. I like Mariota, but the total in this game is set at just 43.5 points, and the Broncos have allowed by far the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season (with a league low 5.8 YPA and a 10:12 TD:INT ratio). It’s just such a tough matchup.

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