Weather Wednesday: Why experts expect a more active hurricane season

Kendall Wilson
·2 min read

LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) — During our Earth Month Series, we talked about the impact that La Nina can have on severe weather trends across the United States. But that is just one result from La Nina. There are multiple things that this phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation or ENSO can affect. The other big thing it will impact this year is tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean.

During La Nina, we often see increased activity in the Atlantic Ocean, primarily due to the effect it has on wind shear. Wind shear is the changing of winds with height, and we can think of it as the enemy of Tropical Cyclones.

The circulation and clouds associated with any Hurricane can extend up to 60 or 70 thousand feet high. These storms need to stay vertically stacked for them to strengthen. When we have strong wind shear, the winds are blowing in different directions in the atmosphere, causing these storms to tilt, decrease in strength, and eventually cease to exist.

However, their ideal situation is when we have winds blowing in the same direction, or a weak wind shear, which is exactly what La Nina provides. Meaning that the environment is now more favorable for these storms to live longer and increase in strength as they move across the ocean.

We also have another big favor working against our favor this year. Yet again, we have sea-surface temperatures that are well above average in the Atlantic, which will help to fuel Hurricane development.

Because we have a La Nina phase and incredibly warm sea surface temperatures, experts are forecasting above-average activity this year in the Atlantic. The current forecast is for 23 Named Storms, 11 Hurricanes, and 5 Major Hurricanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will release their prediction for the season tomorrow.

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