Weather Blog: Winter Storm Warning Tonight with Heavy Snow Expected
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark., (KNWA/KFTA)— A strong storm system will bring us chances for heavy snow tonight and Monday morning. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for portions of the forecast area. A wet heavy snow is expected to develop tonight with some areas potentially picking up over 4″ of snow. The timing of the snow will cause impacts for the Monday morning commute.
Below is a look at a 5:30 PM surface analysis showing a strong surface low south of us. Severe weather was ongoing in Mississippi with snow across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. This low will lift to the Northeast as we go throughout the evening and night. As it lifts, we are expecting wrap-around snow on the backside of the low tonight into Monday morning.
Below is a future track showing rain making a transition to snow tonight. Rain chances will pick up this evening into the overnight. Some sleet may mix in just after midnight before a changeover to a heavy wet snow. The best chance for snow looks to be in the 5:00 a.m. through 9:00 a.m. time-frame. This will make the Monday morning commute hazardous for some. This is especially true for Northwest Arkansas. Don’t be surprised if you hear a few rumbles of thunder. Thundersnow is possible with this event. Chance for snow will linger into late morning. Precipitation will come to an end early Monday afternoon. Power outages are also a threat worth noting. The snow will not be a light fluffy snow like what we saw earlier this year. It will be a wet heavy snow. This could weigh down tree limbs and power lines.
Forecasting snowfall accumulations is tricky with this system, because there really is no cold air in place. We are relying on dynamic cooling to drop temperatures below freezing. So there will be a lot of melting and compaction with this event. The models shown below are not taking into account those factors.
I think the above snowfall amounts are overdone. Below is the Your Weather Authority snow totals.
The snow on the ground will not last long as temperatures will rise above freezing Monday. This snow is perfect for making snowballs and snowmen. So, I would have your fun early. The commute home from work will be a lot better, but there could be some slushy areas especially in the higher terrain areas of Northwest Arkansas. Any leftover moisture will refreeze Monday night with temperatures falling into the 20s as the skies clear. Any impacts will quickly erode Tuesday afternoon with temperatures for some reaching the 60s.
Keep it here with Your Weather Authority team for the latest information.
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