WCU professor predicts 'pleasant' fall colors
Sep. 3—Fall colors are almost upon us. Beverly Collins, fall color forecaster and biology professor at Western Carolina University, announced her predictions for this season's color display in the mountains.
"It will be nice, not spectacular," Collins said.
Collins makes the annual predictions for WCU using her years of experience as a botanist, as well as data from the National Weather Service. She said there are two main factors that influence when leaves will turn color and how vibrant those colors will be. The first is shorter days and longer nights. The second is weather patterns — long term patterns that occur over summer months, and short term patterns that occur in late September and early October.
"Our weather has been gradually getting warmer. There's been a lot of rain," she said. "This means the leaves will turn a little later than historically normal."
The colors may also be somewhat muted, since the leaf color pigment is revealed when photosynthesis and chlorophyll production wind down on the onset of cold weather.
But Collins says on the bright side, colors could last longer. Areas at higher elevations, such as Waynesville, could see fall colors into late October. Areas at lower elevations may see fall colors into November. She predicts the region's overall color season will run from late September into late November.
Fall colors draw thousands of "leaf peepers" to the region each year, and Haywood County is no exception.
If 2021 follows 2020 trends, Haywood county is in store for another near-record-breaking year for tourism. In May, The Mountaineer reported that tourism numbers skyrocketed in 2020, due in part to remote work opportunities and an increase in vacation rentals.
Collins knows that the color forecast can impact tourism in the region.
"The leaf forecast is always important. Western Carolina likes to provide this service for the community," Collins said.
This is Collins' fifth year doing the leaf predictions. Although she can't predict spontaneous weather events that would affect leaf colors, like an early cold snap that would make leaves turn more quickly or a storm that blows the leaves away before they turn, her predictions do follow general trends. In recent years, colors have changed later and lasted longer, without a distinct, vibrant peak. But Collins says this shouldn't deter anyone from getting out and enjoying nature.
"We do want people to know that even if the colors are not spectacular, there's always places to go to see them. It doesn't matter if it's not spectacular, it will be good."
