How to watch the Trump veepstakes

The News

With the presidential primary over, the energy of journalists and political operatives around Donald Trump is turning inevitably to speculation over who will be vice president, with each month bringing a new top name.

Back in February, Trump himself singled out Sen. Tim Scott for praise. In March, the former president reportedly began seriously eyeing Sen. Marco Rubio. April’s flavor is former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Shelby’s view

When it comes down to it, the “veepstakes” is really something else entirely: A map to the competing factions of the former president’s orbit. Trump himself is allergic to process, confident in his own mind, and if he’s made it up, he hasn’t told anyone.

And so different anonymous Trump whisperers offer different lists, in ranked order. One person close to Trump recently suggested Burgum, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, and Rubio as the current top-tier options; another had Sanders swapped out for Scott. Sen. J.D. Vance is often also named by folks in recent months, and one Trump aide expressed skepticism that Burgum would ultimately win the ticket. As for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem — well, it’s not looking good.

Most also add an obvious caveat: That the vice presidential pick comes down to who Trump wants, and that they have no real confidence in their own guesses.

“99% of the people claiming they know who’s up or who’s down are either full of it or have their own agenda,” another person in Trump’s orbit texted Semafor. “The reality is the only thing Trump is truly focused on right now is his own trial.”

There is, in parallel, an actual process moving toward Trump’s vice presidential selection, at or before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in mid-July. The former president’s top aides have already begun narrowing down a list of serious options and vetting them.

But who Trump himself actually wants is a mystery, and people close to him note that he has a habit of floating different names to different people — both based on who he’s speaking with and what he thinks they’d like to hear, as well as whether he’s recently heard something favorable about a particular candidate.

He’s even egged on the speculation publicly: In January, Trump claimed to Fox News that he’d already picked his running mate, prompting bewildered aides to field a flurry of calls from reporters.

Notable

One question Trump has asked in recent weeks when it comes to a running mate? Whether the person can help him fundraise, The New York Times recently detailed — though it’s unclear how much weight this specific concern will ultimately hold over his decision making.

Recently, abortion has been a topic in mind as Trump ponders his VP choices. In particular, according to NBC News, he’s wondered whether more hardline anti-abortion choices like Scott could turn off potential voters.