A cheat sheet to the Super Tuesday results

Super Tuesday certainly lives up to its name.

This year it has 31 state primaries and caucuses. Republicans will pick 865 delegates for their convention, and Democrats will allocate 1,420.

And on top of that, 115 House districts have primaries.

It’s a lot.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are about to take huge leaps forward on the road to a rematch, though former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has a chance to make some hay in a few states on Tuesday.

Voters in the country’s two largest states will also pick their candidates for Senate, and a battleground state will pick nominees for the most important governor’s race this year. More than a quarter of House primaries are happening on the same day. And even further down the ballot, one Republican officeholder is on a revenge tour to oust state lawmakers who tried to boot him from office last year.

It's so much that even the most seasoned election observer needs a cheat sheet. So here’s an hour-by-hour guide to watching Super Tuesday like a pro.

(All times Eastern)

6 p.m.: Iowa sets the table

Polls close in: Iowa

Key races: None

The tally: 40 Democratic pledged delegates

Having lost its longtime perch at the front of Democrats’ presidential nominating calendar, Iowa has retrenched, running a mail-in vote.

The state Democratic Party says to expect results around 6 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday, though cards that are postmarked by Tuesday will eventually be added to the tally.

Biden is joined on the ballot by Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, self-help author Marianne Williamson and an “uncommitted” line.

7 p.m.: Two key Haley tests

Polls close in: Vermont, Virginia

Key races: Vermont Republican president, Virginia Republican president

The tally: 65 Republican delegates, 115 Democratic pledged delegates

We’re going to get an idea pretty quickly about whether Haley’s longshot bid to derail Trump’s nomination has any juice left.

That’s because the first two states to close on the Republican side — Vermont and Virginia — could be among her best chances to mount a close finish. Neither state has partisan voter registration, so the GOP primary ballot is available to any registered voter, and states with those rules are ones where Haley has done better than expected.

Each also has a distinct moderate strain in its Republican electorate. Vermont Gov. Phil Scott is a Trump critic whom Republicans have nominated for four consecutive two-year terms. Haley's success has also tracked with that of Marco Rubio's eight years ago; the Florida senator nearly won the Virginia primary in 2016, finishing just 3 points behind Trump and carrying five of the state’s six largest counties and independent cities.

If Haley can’t keep things close in the two states, however, it suggests Trump is a runaway train and that his nomination is inevitable.

7:30 p.m.: Down-ballot fights in a key battleground state

Polls close in: North Carolina

Key races: North Carolina governor, North Carolina-01 Republican, North Carolina-06 Republican, North Carolina-08 Republican, North Carolina-10 Republican, North Carolina-13 Republican, North Carolina-14 Republican

The tally: 74 Republican delegates, 116 Democratic pledged delegates

Neither presidential primary should be close in North Carolina — though Haley might accumulate some delegates, which will be divided proportionally — but there’s a lot down the ballot to watch.

Voters are expected to cement the year’s marquee governor’s race — the biggest in the country — by pitting Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein against Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. Both have big leads in their respective primaries, despite a self-funded GOP primary effort by attorney Bill Graham to attack Robinson for his history of controversial statements. Those ads could double as spots Stein and Democrats run against Robinson in the general election.

Republicans are poised to make big gains after they redrew the state’s congressional map last year, ruthlessly gerrymandering out three Democrats. Combined with the retirements of GOP Reps. Patrick McHenry and Dan Bishop, who’s running to replace Stein as AG, there are five primaries for GOP open seats — and the winners will help shape the changing face of the House Republican conference at a volatile time.

Meanwhile, the GOP will also pick a candidate to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Don Davis in the state’s lone competitive congressional district. National Republicans hope it isn’t 2022 candidate Sandy Smith, who’s been accused of domestic violence against two ex-husbands, and are instead backing retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout.

8 p.m.: The results really begin pouring in

Polls close in: Alabama, Maine, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas (most)

Key races: Alabama-01 Republican, Alabama-02 Democratic, Maine Republican president, Massachusetts Republican president, Texas-07 Democratic, Texas-12 Republican, Texas-18 Democratic, Texas 26-Republican, Texas-28 Republican, Texas-32 Democratic, Texas-34 Republican

The tally: 211 Republican delegates, 267 pledged Democratic delegates

Of the five states closing at 8 p.m., Maine and Massachusetts seem most promising for Haley, though polls last month showed her far behind Trump in both states.

Down the ballot, Alabama features two big House primaries. The member-vs.-member race between GOP Reps. Jerry Carl and Barry Moore, who were drawn into the same Gulf Coast district after a federal court imposed a new map to give Black voters more political power, pits the party’s establishment and insurgent wings, respectively, against each other. And Democrats are choosing a candidate in the new “opportunity district” for Black voters that will likely vote blue in November.

Polls close in almost all of Texas at 8 p.m., including in virtually all of the state’s contested House races. The top contest is in Houston, where Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, fresh off a loss in that city’s mayoral race in December, is facing the toughest reelection campaign of her lengthy career. Amanda Edwards, a former city councilor and a one-time Jackson Lee intern, is running a competitive race.

Republicans will also pick nominees to replace retiring Reps. Kay Granger and Michael Burgess — two more races that will determine the changing face of the party. And Democrats have their own open race in Dallas to replace Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who is challenging Sen. Ted Cruz.

8:30 p.m.: Halftime show

Polls close in: Arkansas, American Samoa

Key races: Arkansas-03

The tally: 40 Republican delegates, 37 pledged Democratic delegates

GOP Rep. Steve Womack faces a credible primary challenge in Northwest Arkansas, the lone interesting race of the 8:30 window.

9 p.m.: Texas gets called for Biden and Trump

Polls close in: Colorado, Minnesota, Texas (remaining)

Key races: Colorado Republican president, Minnesota Democratic president, Minnesota Republican president, Texas Republican president, Texas Democratic Senate, Texas-23 Republican

The tally: 237 Republican delegates, 391 pledged Democratic delegates

The last polls close in Texas at 9 p.m., and the state should be called immediately for both Biden and Trump. Trump will win the lion’s share of the state’s 161 GOP delegates, a significant jolt in the race to accumulate the 1,215 needed to clinch the nomination.

In the Senate race, Allred is hoping to win a majority of the vote and avoid a May 28 runoff — which would be a three-month delay in his pivot to the general election against Cruz.

In Texas’ expansive 23rd Congressional District, GOP Rep. Tony Gonzales faces a challenging primary, driven by his past moderate stances on gun safety and immigration. Gonzales faces multiple challengers, and the runoff threshold could kick the primary into overtime there as well.

Also keep an eye on Texas’ state legislative primaries. State Attorney General Ken Paxton, who was impeached by the state House for corruption last year but acquitted by the state Senate, is trying to use the primaries to purge the GOP of his critics, even though he’s facing a criminal trial for securities fraud next month.

Meanwhile, Minnesota was the lone state Rubio carried in 2016, and it could be promising for Haley. Voters there don’t register by party.

On the Democratic side, the state also has an “uncommitted” line — and after last week’s Michigan primary, activists are interested in replicating the effort in another Midwest state that also has a significant Muslim American population.

Colorado, with a large share of college-educated voters, is another possibility for Haley to make some noise.

10 p.m.: The final state Haley could be competitive in

Polls close in: Utah

Key races: Utah Republican president

The tally: 40 Republican delegates, 30 pledged Democratic delegates

Utahns have never been enamored with Trump: He finished a distant third in the state’s 2016 caucuses, got just 46 percent of the vote in a successful general election campaign and followed that up with 58 percent in the 2020 general election — still worse than George W. Bush, John McCain or Mitt Romney.

The universe of Republican caucus-goers isn’t likely to be particularly friendly to Haley — especially given Trump’s dominance of caucuses so far, including Monday night in North Dakota — but Utah still bears watching.

11 p.m.: The biggest prize

Polls close in: California

Key races: California Senate, California-03, California-09, California-12, California-13, California-16, California-20, California-22, California-27, California-29, California-30, California-31, California-41, California-45, California-47, California-49

The tally: 169 Republican delegates, 424 pledged Democratic delegates

California is the biggest delegate prize for both parties. In the Republican race, a rule pushed by Trump’s camp means a candidate who wins a majority of the votes gets every one of the state’s 169 delegates.

Despite California’s liberal reputation, the rules in the state heavily favor Trump. The primary is only open to registered Republicans, a group with which Trump has dominated in other states. He should clean up there.

The real drama is in the top-two primary for the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat. Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff is the frontrunner, and he’s run a shrewd campaign aimed at consolidating Democratic support — while also boosting a Republican, former Dodgers and Padres first-baseman Steve Garvey, into the top two. That would lock out Democratic Rep. Katie Porter of the general election. (The seat is currently held by interim Sen. Laphonza Butler, who isn’t running for a full term.)

Republicans haven’t won a Senate race in California since 1988, and Schiff would be a prohibitive favorite against Garvey. A Schiff-Porter general election would be more volatile — independents and Republicans would be asked to choose between two Democrats with national reputations for being thorns in the side of the GOP.

At the congressional level, the 22nd District, in the Central Valley, features another top-two crunch. There are four candidates — two Democrats and two Republicans — and some Democrats are worried that the two GOP candidates could nab the general-election spots and box them out of a Republican-held seat Biden won by 13 points in the 2020 presidential election.

There are a number of other House races to watch, and the contest to replace Porter in her competitive Orange County seat is top among them. Two Democrats — state Sen. Dave Min and attorney Joanna Weiss — are vying for a chance to take on Republican Scott Baugh. Weiss has support from EMILY’s List and the political arm of AIPAC, which has spent $3.7 million in advertising, mostly to attack Min for a DUI arrest last year.

Midnight: The last state

Polls close in: Alaska

Key races: None

The tally: 29 Republican delegates

The night ends with Republican caucuses in Alaska, where — at least in Anchorage — the temperature is expected to be some 30 degrees warmer than it was for in the Iowa caucuses in January.

Trump finished second in the 2016 Alaska caucuses but isn’t expected to have much trouble this time around.