There are votes left to count in Fresno County. Does a city’s future hang in the balance?

It’s been more than a week since the March 5 primary election, and Fresno County still has thousands of votes yet to count as late vote-by-mail ballots trickled in by Tuesday’s deadline.

Since March 8, almost 38,000 mail-in ballots were counted, with no changes to outcomes. Still, a key public safety ballot measure in Orange Cove – a city of about 9,600 residents tucked against the eastern foothills of the county – remains only a few votes above the two-thirds threshold needed to pass.

Since 2014, Orange Cove has charged a special property tax to support police and fire services. That voter-approved tax is set to expire in November. Measure O on the primary election ballot proposes extending the tax without expiration until repealed by voters. The tax generates almost $264,000 a year through annual property tax assessments of $95 on each single-family residential property in the city, $65 per multifamily unit, $95 per agricultural parcel, $495 per commercial parcel, and $750 per industrial parcel.

Orange Cove has about 3,250 registered voters. As of Tuesday evening, Measure O was passing, but only by a margin of five votes out of almost 500 votes counted so far. A previous attempt in November 2023 to extend the Orange Cove tax fell about eight votes short of the two-thirds majority needed to pass.

Fresno County Clerk/Registrar of Voters James Kus estimated that there are about 5,000 ballots still uncounted countywide, as well as about 500 provisional or conditional ballots cast on Election Day by voters who either did not appear on the county’s registration rolls or who registered that day.

How soon those can be counted will depend on how quickly the county’s election staff can match the signatures on the outside of voters’ ballot envelopes with what’s on record on their voter registration cards. Kus said the next updated totals are expected on Friday afternoon.

In addition, there are an estimated 2,700 ballots that were returned with problems related to the voter’s signature – either unsigned or with signatures that don’t match the voter registration. The county has sent letters asking the voter to correct the signature error by early April for their vote to be counted.

Here’s a summary of results in Fresno County:

City of Fresno

• Fresno Mayor: Incumbent Mayor Jerry Dyer remains firmly in the lead, winning more than 80% of the votes cast. High school teacher James Barr has just under 14%, while stay-at-home mother Samantha Dussell has about 5.6%. The race also attracted a write-in candidate, Richard Renteria, but write-in votes represented less than 0.3% of the votes cast.

• Fresno City Council District 2: Incumbent Councilmember Mike Karbassi has easily won re-election for a new four-year term representing northwest Fresno, earning about 72.5% of the vote over challenger Matthew Gillian, a nonprofit director who received 27.4%. There was also a write-in candidate, Januane “J.L” Smith, but write-ins accounted for only 23 votes out of more than 14,000 counted.

• Fresno City Council District 4: The District 4 seat on the Fresno City Council was on the ballot for residents of east-central Fresno, but incumbent Councilmember Tyler Maxwell was unopposed for re-election.

• Fresno City Council District 6: Despite almost 4,200 additional ballots counted in the race to represent northeast Fresno and replace termed-out incumbent Garry Bredefeld, there was no change among the top two vote-getters who will be heading for a November runoff: Attorney Roger Bonakdar with 37.4% and fund-raising consultant Nick Richardson with 26.6%. Rounding out the field are businesswoman Molly Fagundes-Johnston at 22.7% and bank executive Raj Sodhi-Layne at 13.2%.

Fresno County

Fresno County Board of Supervisors District 2: The hotly contested five-person race to represent north Fresno on the county board is destined for a November runoff between Bredefeld, seeking to step up from the Fresno City Council, and incumbent Supervisor Steve Brandau. Bredefeld has 38.1% of the votes counted so far, ahead of Brandau with 28.2% Rounding out the field are county Assessor-Recorder Paul Dictos at 16.2%, business owner Bryce Herrera at 10.1%, and social worker Dion Bourdase at 7.5%.

Fresno County Board of Supervisors District 3: Incumbent Supervisor Sal Quintero will face his one-time City Council staff member, current Fresno City Councilmember Luis Chavez, in a November runoff between the top two vote-getters to represent south Fresno on the board. Quintero leads with 37.3% against Chavez’ 26.2%. Also running were Fresno City Councilmember Miguel Arias, who has 19.8% of the votes, and teacher E.J. Hinojosa with 16.7%.

Fresno County Board of Supervisors District 5: Incumbent Supervisor Nathan Magsig handily won re-election to represent eastern Fresno County on the board, picking up 71/.1% of the votes counted so far to defeat challenger Jennifer Cruz, a nonprofit director who received 28.9%.

Fresno County Measure A: The measure to keep Fresno County’s elections for sheriff and district attorney in non-presidential election years is passing with 55.1% of the votes counted so far, compared to 44.9% of voters who said no.

Fresno County Measure B: A proposal to reserve authority for the county Board of Supervisors to rename places within the county was being soundly rejected by voters, with 63.9% voting no against 36.1% voting yes. The measure was put on the ballot by the Board of Supervisors as an effort to assert local control over state and federal mandates to rename the foothill town of Squaw Valley to Yokuts Valley.

Fresno County Measure E: An attempt by backers of California State University, Fresno, to enact a countywide 0.25% sales tax to support facilities improvements at the university, was also losing. As of Tuesday afternoon, 57.4% of voters were saying no to the measure, against 42.6% who voted yes. A similar measure for a 0.2% sales tax was defeated by voters in 2022.

How low was voter turnout?

Fresno County has about 507,000 registered voters, according to election officials. Through Tuesday afternoon, 143,897 ballots had been processed and counted, representing a voter turnout of 28.4%.

If all of the the approximately 5,500 late-arriving vote-by-mail ballots and provisional ballots are counted, that would increase the turnout to about 29.5%.

The turnout for this primary election in Fresno County is better than it was in the June 2022 state primary or the March 2020 presidential primary, but below what Kus described as the historic average of about 40% for presidential primaries over the past couple of decades.

Voter turnout is typically far less in primary elections than for general elections, whether for presidential elections or the off-year elections for governor in California.. One factor that can influence turnout in presidential primary elections is whether or not the major parties’ nominees for president have largely been decided by the time California holds its primary. This year, former President Donald Trump easily had the Republican nomination in hand by March 5, while President Joe Biden had all but secured the Democratic nomination.