A Fox News poll finds people want change, but they don't want Romney, Nevada and North Carolina are not going the ways the parties expected, and Romney might be fighting in Iowa. Here's our guide to today's polls and why they matter.
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Findings: In a new Fox News poll a majority of voters — 73 percent — say they want many policies to change in the county, but Obama is still the preferred choice among likely voters. Pollster: Anderson Robbins Research (D) andShaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News Methodology: Landline and cell phone survey of 1,208 registered voters with a subsample of 1,092 likely voters September 24 through 26 with a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points. Why it matters: This is where Romney still can maintain some glimmer of hope. While Obama is leading right now, people generally think things need to change. If Romney can prove that the need for change outweighs voters' dislike of him then maybe he has a chance. Caveat: Obama's lead is within the margin of error.
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Findings: Obama is up by two points in North Carolina and Nevada. Pollster: NBC/WSJ/Marist Methodology: Landline and cell phone interviews of 984 likely Nevada voters and 1,035 likely voters in North Carolina, September 23 to 25, with a margin of error of +/-3.1 percent. Why it matters: These state stand as swing states that still remain very competitive, however neither as Neil King Jr. explains are going exactly the way parties hoped. King writes: "Mr. Obama won North Carolina by a tiny sliver in 2008, and many conservatives believed it would fall back into the Republican column by now." On the other hand when it comes to Nevada, "Democrats had predicted that Nevada would be safe Obama territory by now, but it remains competitive." Caveat: They aren't Florida or Ohio when it comes to importance, but King explains that "campaign strategists from both parties look at the three states as important building blocks to an Electoral College majority." Romney is especially going to have to look to states like these if he loses the big ones. We'll also point out that the Democratic candidate is getting crushed in North Carolina's gubernatorial race.
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Findings: A The Iowa Republican/Voter/Consumer Research puts Romney up by 1 point in Iowa. Pollster: TIR/Voter/Consumer Research Methodology: Live telephone interviews with 500 registered voters September 23 through 25 with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percent. Why it matters: Early voting has already started in the state where Romney had been getting some bad news from the polls, looking at Real Clear Politics: NBC/WSJ/Marist had put him down eight points, Public Policy Polling down seven. The Republican-leaning Rasmussen showed him doing better, up three points. This poll still shows a tight race, but it indicates hope for Romney, since he's going to have to go for states like Iowa if he loses Ohio. Caveat: As Craig Robinson at The Iowa Republican points out there are methodological differences between this and the Democratic-leaning PPP poll, for instance, which more heavily sampled Democrats. Of course, The Iowa Republican is also a partisan publication. Additionally, this poll is of registered voters as opposed to likely voters.