Vance draws Trump VP speculation

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) has drawn speculation in recent months that he could be chosen as former President Trump’s running mate as the first-term senator solidifies his status as one of Trump’s top supporters.

Vance has reportedly been included on Trump’s short list for possible vice president picks, though he avoided saying whether he would take the job if it was offered to him.

But Vance’s background and consistent support for Trump since taking his Senate seat could position him as an ideal choice for the former president as he looks for a loyal running mate.

“He’s no stranger to hard work. He has had rock-solid loyalty and a winning record,” said Ohio-based Republican strategist Mehek Cooke. “And by that I mean, he doesn’t just regurgitate Republican talking points. He truly believes in putting America first.”

Vance grew up in a middle-class community in Ohio that once had many manufacturing jobs that gradually disappeared, according to his biography on his Senate website. He became a venture capitalist working at a firm co-founded by Peter Thiel and gained prominence with the popularity of his bestselling book “Hillbilly Elegy.”

Vance initially declared himself as “never Trump” during the 2016 presidential election but later changed his position and became one of his most ardent backers.

“I think there are so many reasons I was wrong about Trump, but I’m happy that I was wrong about Trump,” Vance told New York Magazine in an interview during his 2022 Senate run.

Vance was trailing in the polls for the GOP nomination for Senate through most of the race until Trump endorsed him just weeks before the primary. He won the nomination by more than 9 points over his closest opponent and went on to defeat then-Rep. Tim Ryan (D) by 6 points for the seat.

Since taking office, he has been a regular defender of the former president. He called arguments that Trump would abuse his power if reelected “preposterous” and argued Trump is more electable than Nikki Haley because he has withstood years of criticism.

He has also slammed the legal battles Trump has faced, including more recently the New York ruling that Trump should pay $83.3 million for sexual assault and defamation against writer E. Jean Carroll.

Axios reported in January that Vance was one of the choices on Trump’s shortlist for running mate.

“I don’t think this is just about President Trump’s election today,” Cooke said of Trump’s decisionmaking process. “I truly think this is about the legacy of President Trump and what he hopes to achieve in America … and I truly believe that President Trump is going to pick a VP that loves his country as much as he does, and JD Vance would be a phenomenal pick.”

Cooke said she does not believe that Vance’s past criticism of Trump would hurt his chances or ability to serve because he has been a “steady supporter” more recently, and he has said he will do all he can to ensure Trump wins.

During Trump’s administration, then-Vice President Mike Pence was a close supporter, but Trump and Pence had a falling out over the events of Jan. 6, 2021, and the former president will clearly look elsewhere for his running mate this time.

Strategists said Vance would also be an appealing choice because he is ideologically in sync with Trump on several key issues.

Republican strategist Jordan Ohler, also based in Ohio, said choosing Vance would indicate Trump is thinking about his long-term legacy beyond a potential second term, noting that they agree on opposing the “woke state” and “deep state,” maintaining support for Israel and expressing skepticism of providing additional aid to Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Ohler said Vance, who is 39 years old, could speak more effectively to younger voters who are struggling with a lack of access to housing and upward mobility. Polls have shown Trump making gains with younger voters on President Biden, a shift that if true would mark a major change in young voter behavior.

“JD Vance articulates well how Trump can return these kids to an America they saw just four years ago,” Ohler said. “The economy looked a lot brighter. And JD Vance knows it. He can articulate that and sell younger voters on the fact that America is not too far gone to save, that the opportunities are still out there.”

Some strategists, on the other hand, expressed doubt that Vance would be the best choice because he comes from a state that will likely not be a battleground in the presidential race and does not add gender or racial diversity.

Ohio-based Republican strategist Mark Weaver said Vance has a “great future” in the Republican Party but is unlikely to be chosen because Ohio is already going to vote for Trump. He said this would also be the case for South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem (R) and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R), but Noem could help provide appeal to women voters, and Scott could appeal to Black male voters.

He said ideological agreement may not matter as much as appearances for the ticket in Trump’s decisionmaking process.

“I think it falls back to image-based optical considerations, which is why [Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.)] or Tim Scott are more likely picks than someone like JD Vance, who is a serious policy person who could bring a lot to the table, but that’s not what’s for dinner on the table,” Weaver said.

GOP strategist David Capen said Vance “checks a lot of the same boxes” demographically as Trump, making him potentially not the most likely choice. He said Trump is likely looking for someone who is “incredibly loyal,” noting Vance’s past opposition to him, and possibly a woman like Noem, who has “demonstrated loyalty from the beginning.”

“JD Vance doesn’t exactly broaden the base,” Capen said. “And I’m not saying his loyalty is questionable by any means. But I think loyalty as a characteristic is something that’s going to weigh heavily in President Trump’s decision for his running mate.”

But he added that Trump is likely looking for someone not just loyal to him but “to his agenda,” and Vance has the experience like Trump of being a “fighter,” having worked in business effectively. He said Vance has gained popularity as a junior senator and could rally young conservatives.

“Trump is going to be looking for somebody who is going to be able to carry the mantle of his agenda, and probably the person that he views as his successor, four years down the line,” Capen said.

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