US officials fear miscalculation in Niger with Russian fighters

Biden administration officials are increasingly worried that rogue Russian soldiers in Niger will take actions to antagonize U.S. troops in the country, forcing the U.S. to respond.

They’re concerned that the Russian fighters — who are stationed at the same air base as American troops in the capital of Niamey — will engage in disruptive behavior such as driving aggressively or harassing U.S. troops at checkpoints, according to two officials familiar with Western intelligence.

The intelligence, they stressed, shows that Russian soldiers pose no immediate threat to the U.S. troops. But even small hostile encounters would increase the risk of a confrontation that could result in an exchange of fire.

The officials, and others, were granted anonymity to speak freely about sensitive intelligence.

The Russian and American soldiers have been residing in the same location — Base 101, which is attached to Niamey’s international airport — for weeks. The Russian fighters began arriving in April at the invitation of Niger’s military junta, soon after it called for the dissolution of the agreement that governed the U.S. troop presence in the country. U.S. troops are making preparations to leave Niger, but do not have specific dates by which they need to leave, a Defense Department official said.

Skirmishes between U.S. and Russian troops in Niger would significantly escalate tensions between the two countries at a time when their relationship is increasingly strained over the war in Ukraine. The last time U.S. and Russian troops were stationed in such close proximity in Syria, the two sides engaged in an intense firefight that threatened to pull the two sides into a direct conflict.

There are between 60 and 100 Russians in Niamey, said the first DOD official.

U.S. officials tried to work out a deal with the country’s military junta that would allow them to stay in the country, pushing its leaders to agree to a roadmap that would eventually lead to a return to democratic rule. While U.S. officials are still attempting to negotiate, the junta has so far refused to agree to those terms and pulled in Russian paramilitaries to help train its troops and provide arms.

The presence of Russian paramilitary fighters at the same base as U.S. troops is symbolic of the broader problem the Biden administration faces in Africa. Moscow is increasingly forging partnerships with coup governments, providing arms and security to militaries at a time when U.S. law prohibits such support.

The National Security Council and the CIA declined to comment. Spokespeople for the Russian and Nigerien embassies did not respond to requests for comment.

Many are members of what was formerly known as the Wagner force, formerly led by Russian mercenary Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin. Following his death in August 2023, Moscow folded thousands of those fighters into new and existing paramilitary groups aligned with its military and intelligence services. Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin is using those fighters to help boost Russia’s presence on the continent.

U.S. officials believe the paramilitary group in Niger will also engage in political missions at the direction of Moscow to encourage the Nigerien government to interfere with the U.S. mission in Niamey and try to force the withdrawal of American personnel from the country.

The Russian forces are in Niamey to train and advise the Nigerien armed forces. One of the two U.S. officials said the Russians are expected to help the Nigerien soldiers train on air defenses.

The Pentagon is confident in its force protection measures and assesses the Russian troops are not looking to clash with Americans. But DOD officials are concerned that the Russian forces could also try to gather intelligence on the American capabilities.

“The concern is more along the lines of intel. Obviously they are eyes on the ground and they have the ability to monitor,” said a second DOD official. “We obviously don’t love that they are there, but it’s not our country.”

U.S. officials are also concerned that the Russian forces will be in position to take over American compounds and equipment when and if U.S. troops withdraw, said a second DOD official.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday confirmed reports that Russian forces had moved into Air Base 101, a Nigerien Air Force Base that is co-located with Niamey’s international airport. The Russians are in a separate compound and don’t have access to U.S. forces or equipment, he said.

“I'm always focused on the safety and the protection of our troops, something that we'll continue to watch. But right now, I don't see a significant issue here in terms of our force protection,” Austin said, speaking at a joint press conference with his Australian, Japanese and Philippine counterparts in Honolulu, Hawaii.

U.S. officials are more broadly concerned that the Russian forces will seek to exploit Nigerien people and resources, as they have done in other unstable African nations. As some of those countries have looked to Kremlin-backed proxy groups like Wagner to provide security, the problem actually gets “manifestly worse,” said one U.S. military official, citing “dramatic increases of violence against civilians and worsening violent extremism.”