US to Israel: Don’t do something you’ll regret

The Biden administration’s main message for Israel following Iran’s aerial assault comes down to this: Stop and think.

U.S. officials expect Israel to respond in some fashion to Saturday’s strikes, but in both public and private ways they are taking steps they hope will convince Israel to choose a limited response as opposed to an all-out armed counter-attack.

The latter, they fear, will plunge the region into a major war. President Joe Biden in particular wants to avoid any battle that could drag in U.S. troops, and he’s made that clear to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

“We’re advising them to take a breath before responding,” said a U.S. official familiar with the Middle East, one of 10 people granted anonymity to freely discuss closed-door diplomacy. If Israel does respond, “it needs to be proportional and bring this cycle to an end.”

To lend their arguments some weight, U.S. military forces helped Israel defend itself by knocking down dozens of the 300 missiles and drones Iran and its proxy militias hurled toward Israel. Overall, Israel suffered very few hits.

“The plan was always to help them defend themselves to the max to limit the damage so that they didn’t feel compelled to come back with another overwhelming response and we can de-escalate and be done,” said a second U.S. official.

U.S. officials hope that Israel sees Washington as a friend it can depend on in the face of an unprecedented Iranian strike, despite tensions on other fronts. In recent weeks, Biden and his aides have sharpened their criticism of Israel’s military actions in Gaza, where Israelis are fighting Hamas militants but many Palestinian civilians are dying or at risk of famine.

But this weekend, Biden and his aides publicly stressed America’s “ironclad” support for Israel and denounced Iran’s attack. The Iranian strike was a reprisal for an Israeli attack earlier this month that killed several Iranian military officers in Syria.

Biden did not mention the differences he and Netanyahu have on the war in Gaza in his Saturday night statement on the Iran attacks. He also didn’t mention the frustrations some U.S. officials feel about the fact that, in targeting Iran’s military officers, Israel struck what Iran said was a diplomatic facility — a highly unusual breach of international norms.

Biden administration officials also pointed out that Iran’s attack was largely thwarted through a combination of U.S., Israeli, and Arab aerial defenses, the sheer scope of which appeared unprecedented. Such a coordinated defense proved that Israel was not isolated on the global stage and that Iran could not breach its defenses, they argued.

In fact, a third U.S. official said Israel should consider the shooting down of nearly all of the 300 launched missiles and drones as a win for them and a defeat for Iran. That alone could negate the need for a retaliatory attack.

Whatever Israel does now, it should be limited, and, “given the amount of risk we are taking, we expect them to let us know before they do anything,” the second U.S. official said.

Biden further spoke Sunday with fellow G7 leaders to coordinate a united diplomatic response to Iran. It was a sign that the U.S. would prefer the next moves to involve sanctions or other non-military action, including potentially seeing some European countries designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization.

Israeli leaders have been vague about what they will do next.

Some Israeli media outlets reported an unnamed official as saying there would be an “unprecedented response,” while Netanyahu promised “we will win” in a social media post.

An Israeli official, granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive subject, said that “Israel reserves the right to defend itself following this unprecedented Iranian aggression.” The weekend strike was the first time Iran had attacked Israel directly from its soil since Islamist clerics took power in 1979.

Because the Iranian attack was telegraphed well in advance, U.S. officials spent much of last week privately counseling Israelis to think carefully before retaliating.

American officials passed messages to Tehran during the attack through the Swiss, urging restraint, a senior administration official confirmed Sunday, though the U.S. and Iran also were in contact ahead of the assault. The official added that the Iranians responded to the missives but wouldn’t characterize what the Islamic Republic said.

In a call after Iran launched the attack, Biden told Netanyahu that the U.S. would not join an offensive counter-strike on Iran, though he did not say the U.S. would oppose it, according to two of the people.

Iran and Israel have each carried out one major strike against the other now. But Iran’s attack was larger than many expected, and it came directly from Tehran as well as proxy militias elsewhere in the region. So although Israel was left with little damage, it could feel compelled to somehow return fire.

The senior administration official told reporters Sunday afternoon that Israeli officials let their U.S. counterparts know “they’re not looking for a significant escalation with Iran.” The official, asked by POLITICO if the U.S. did not want Israel to respond, said “this is a decision for them,” refusing to answer the question specifically.

Iranian leaders said Tehran’s retaliation against Israel was over — unless Israel struck back.

“At this point, the Islamic Republic of Iran has no intention of continuing defensive operations, but if necessary it will not hesitate to protect its legitimate interests against any new aggression,” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian stated on social media.

In what could be a thinly veiled signal from the White House, Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.), a close Biden ally, said Sunday on CNN that Israel should “pause for the moment, consult with its close allies and partners, assess the damage and the activity, and then decide what is the most appropriate response.”

But Biden risks being painted as weak in urging caution — and Republicans could wield that criticism against him this election year.

“I think Israel should be looking at this as an opportunity to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program, which is the existential threat that Israel faces,” John Bolton, Donald Trump’s third national security adviser, said on CNN on Sunday. “If Joe Biden, as some press reports have it, is urging the Israelis not to retaliate at all, he is an embarrassment to the United States.”

Netanyahu has long agitated against Tehran. He and many other Israelis see it as partially responsible for the Gaza war because of Iran’s military support for Hamas. But Netanyahu also can be cautious in taking on an adversary such as Iran, often preferring more covert methods.

Still, many Biden administration officials, as well as many Israelis, suspect Netanyahu — often referred to by his nickname Bibi — wants to keep Israel on a war footing in order to extend his stay in power. Many Israelis blame him for the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that sparked the Gaza war. New elections, which Israel’s allies in the U.S. and an Israeli War Cabinet member have called for, would likely see Netanyahu suffer a stinging defeat.

“Nobody except maybe Bibi wants this to get out of control,” said a senior U.S. official.

Erin Banco and Jonathan Lemire contributed to this report.