Ukraine 'in deep trouble': Some experts say $1B more from US won't matter. Live updates

A new defense minister, an encouraging visit from the U.S. secretary of state and another $1 billion in aid have fueled optimism in Ukraine this week. But will they have an impact on the war?

Ukraine and U.S. officials says yes. Some experts are not convinced.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, in a briefing Wednesday in Kyiv where Secretary of State Antony Blinken unveiled a $1 billion aid package, said anyone who believes Ukraine and the U.S. won't stand together "till the end of the victory, today they ... received a new signal that they are wrong."

Blinken was equally positive, saying that progress with Ukraine's counteroffensive has accelerated in the past few weeks and that the new aid package "will help sustain it and build further momentum."

Steven Myers, an Air Force veteran, State Department advisory panel member and Russia expert, says the Biden administration "party line" is that Ukraine is winning and that Russia must yield to the West or become a "vassal of China." Myers says new Ukraine Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, a Blinken pat on the back and the latest aid package won't dramatically alter Ukraine's struggle against its far-bigger neighbor.

"There is no effective counterstrategy available to the Ukrainians," Myers said. "The Ukrainians are in deep trouble."

Myers told USA TODAY the Ukrainians use "pin pricks" and news about taking back land to demonstrate progress to the West − but are less transparent about the cost in Ukrainian lives.

"They don’t talk about the counterstrikes by the Russians, who don’t care about gaining or holding ground in the kill zone and are experts at laying traps," he said.

Ukrainian forays into Russian territory usually result in drones smashing high-rise windows in Moscow. A Russian rocket attack Wednesday the eastern Ukraine city of Kostiantynivka struck a downtown market, killing 17 civilians hours after Blinken arrived in Kyiv.

Ukraine and the West badly need an exit strategy, Myers said.

"Europe is in more economic trouble than we are. Germany’s in deep recession," Myers said. "The Europeans are not going to shoulder more economic burden. They need an off-ramp."

Sean McFate, a professor at Syracuse University and senior fellow at the nonpartisan Atlantic Council think tank, aligns with Myers. He supports the change in defense ministers, saying corruption claims forced the issue. But that won't change the course of the war, he said.

McFate says the U.S. relied on conventional warfare tactics in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan − and lost. Yet the U.S. has not changed tactics in Ukraine, he says. Russia made the same mistakes early in Ukraine with its ill-fated blitz toward Kyiv, McFate told USA TODAY. Now the Kremlin is relying on more modern tools of war, he said, such as controlling information and mercenary troops.

"Things are going nowhere for Ukraine," McFate said. "Wars are no longer won like World War II by taking the enemy’s land, killing their troops and flying your flag over their capital."

When will Ukraine join NATO? Russian military fortifications may hold the answer.

Developments:

∎ About 90% of Ukrainian prisoners of war have been tortured, raped, threatened with sexual violence or otherwise abused, Ukraine's prosecutor general said in a statement. Andriy Kostin said he discussed intensifying efforts to halt the unlawful practices with Alice Edwards, the U.N. special rapporteur on torture.

∎ An armed Ukrainian drone crashed in the Volgograd region of Russia near the defense ministry's southern district logistics center, local media reported. No damage or injuries were reported.

∎ The Ukrainian Air Force posted video on Telegram of what it said was a German-supplied Gepard anti-aircraft artillery system shooting down Russia's armed, Iranian-built drones.

∎ The U.S. and Britain sanctioned 11 people involved in the Trickbot Russian cybercrime network that has targeted the U.S. government and U.S. companies, including hospitals, the State Department said.

∎ Two truck drivers were injured and a grain elevator and administrative building were destroyed in a Russian drone attack in the southern Ukraine port city of Odesa, the local prosecutor office said on Telegram. Several private homes also were damaged.

Pentagon announces $600M in orders for military contractors

The Pentagon on Thursday announced $600 million in orders for military contractors to support the Ukrainian military. The weapons include long-range artillery ammunition, air defense equipment and mine-clearing gear.

The package differs from the $175 million package that was announced Wednesday. The weapons in that batch, including depleted-uranium ammunition for Abrams tanks, comes from existing Pentagon stocks and can be delivered in days. Thursday’s aid will take contractors months to produce and ship to Ukraine.

The Biden administration has supplied Ukraine with more than $43 billion in military aid since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.

− Tom Vanden Brook

Deadly missiles slam Ukraine market; Blinken pledges $1B in aid on Kyiv visit: Live updates

Blinken visits mine-clearing teams, border guards

Secretary of State Antony Blinken spent much of his second day in Ukraine visiting with men and women working to make the country safe amid war. Blinken visited border guards, noting that the latest U.S. aid package includes $300 million for Ukrainian law enforcement. Blinken also tweeted about visits with "courageous" Ukrainians working to clear roads, parks and playgrounds from mines and unexploded ordinances − a process Blinken said could take years. The aid package includes $90.5 million in additional demining assistance.

"Ukrainians are coming together to get rid of the ordnance, to get rid of the mines, and to rebuild," Blinken said. "To literally recover the land that was taken from them."

How private ammo sales are arming the war in Ukraine

A "shadowy system" of gun brokers and exporters is playing a vital role in the push to get weapons and ammunition in the hands of Ukrainians fighting off Russia's invasion. Most of America’s $44 billion in documented support to Ukraine came from U.S. military stocks, but other weapons come from private sales. More than 14,000 U.S. entities are registered to conduct defense trade activities, monitored by federal agencies. The war has increased demand for private deals. The State Department approved $154 billion in commercial arms deals directly to foreign countries in 2022, a 48% increase from the previous year.

Jim Bartlett, an attorney who specializes in the international arms transactions, said private U.S. businesses are playing a small but vital role in arming Ukraine.

“There’s an effort at the State Department to quickly clear the ones headed for Ukraine," Bartlett said. "You get head-of-the-line privileges.” Read more here.

− Nick Penzenstadler

Behind the scenes: See how private ammo sales from US are fueling the war in Ukraine

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ukraine Russia live updates: US support, aid may not help end the war