Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Claims Patriot Intercepted Kinzhal Air-Launched Ballistic Missile
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The Ukrainian Air Force has confirmed that a MIM-104 Patriot missile system intercepted a Kh-47 Kinzhal air-launched 'hypersonic' ballistic missile over Kyiv in what could be a high-profile victory for the U.S. missile system just weeks after entering Ukrainian service.
Ukraine initially denied the interception despite a swath of open-source intelligence suggesting a Patriot got the kill. Photos from the downed missile’s crash site appear to show damage from an interceptor.
https://twitter.com/KpsZSU/status/1654803125667090437 https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1654742797725868036 https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1654432674633613312
Being air-launched from Russian MiG-31K interceptors, the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is an adaptation of the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile. While its higher potential speed and irregular flight profile could make it more challenging for a Patriot to intercept it, it is likely still within its capability.
A MiG-31 packing a Kinzhal missile.
Now, according to Ukraine, that has been proven to be the case. We also don't know what interceptor specifically was used, if indeed this intercept happened as stated, but there have been indications that Ukraine is using older generation missiles that remain highly capable, but are not as potent as the most recent PAC-3 offerings.
WATCH!!
The FIRST Operational PATRIOT Missile System, deployed in Ukraine.
Source- Ukrainian Air Force#Patriot #US #Ukraine #Russia pic.twitter.com/KfwaDKsMTD— EurAsian Times (@THEEURASIATIMES) April 26, 2023
Before the Patriots entered combat in recent weeks, Kyiv’s air defenses had very little ability to counter the Kinzhal and its ground-launched Iskander-M cousin or S-300 SAMs used against ground targets. This is precisely why Ukraine sought Patriots to fill this gap in its defense network. The fact that Ukraine's Soviet-era SAMs may be running very low makes the Patriot's arrival even more important for countering many types of threats beyond ballistic missiles, including those posed by cruise missiles, drones, and fixed-wing aircraft.
Before we dive into the latest news from Ukraine, The War Zone readers can get caught up on our previous rolling coverage here.
The Latest
Saturday’s intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defense noted the cancellation of six Russian regions’ May 9 Victory Day parades and celebrations over security concerns related to the war in Ukraine.
The update assessed this week’s drone attack on the Kremlin in Moscow as having “almost certainly raised the threat perception of the Russian leadership over the Victory Day events.” Potential protests and unrest over the war also likely influenced decisions to cancel.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine - 6 May 2023.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/7fNDKdzCOF
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/lsD4aRxEH2— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) May 6, 2023
Recent partisan actions in Russia suggest concerns about internal security likely have merit. Russian nationalist writer Zakhar Prilepin, a prominent pro-war voice who fought with separatist forces in the Donbas before the full-scale invasion, was seriously wounded and his driver killed after an explosion in Nizhny Novogrod Oblast east of Moscow. Video from the scene shows a vehicle flipped with serious damage and a sizable crater.
Some Zakhar Prilepin's car blew up in Russia, the clown lost his leg. Didn't read Russian accounts, but I'm almost sure they'll call him a writer and whine about Ukrainians. He fought against Ukrainians, but I doubt he was valuable for such an operation (video: his car) https://t.co/iIhVKJ8oQu pic.twitter.com/lshoDBO2LB
— English Luhansk (@loogunda) May 6, 2023
In the town of Yeysk across the Sea of Azov from occupied Mariupol, a video shows the driver of a car blow himself up as what appear to be Russian security forces attempt to storm his vehicle on the street. Yeysk hosts a nearby Russian Naval Aviation air base that has supported the war effort in Ukraine.
A local resident blew himself up in a car while Russian security forces were trying to detain him in the city of Yeysk, Krasnodar. pic.twitter.com/hHUeCJs2uT
— Clash Report (@clashreport) May 6, 2023
In its most recent control of terrain assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) noted Russian gains in and around the besieged city of Bakhmut.
Russian forces made additional gains within #Bakhmut as of May 5.
Geolocated footage published on May 5 shows that Russian forces have advanced in northwestern Bakhmut towards #Khromove (directly west of Bakhmut). https://t.co/aTJxORRoYd https://t.co/xakXiwZmJP pic.twitter.com/f8DSRpCyNK— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 6, 2023
At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Defense appears to have deprioritized the Bakhmut frontline, instead shifting to the defensive as the Ukrainian counteroffensive looms.
NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to have deprioritized the #Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, putting #WagnerGroup & its financier #Prigozhin in a potentially difficult position https://t.co/aTJxORRoYd pic.twitter.com/RExId2EiUs
— ISW (@TheStudyofWar) May 5, 2023
This appears to correspond with the latest episode between Wagner Group PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense. Prigozhin claimed this week Wagner would pull out of Bakhmut on May 10 if its forces don't receive larger batches of ammunition, with the latest reports suggesting Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov’s troops will take Wagner’s place in the city.
https://twitter.com/MikaelValterss1/status/1654766749743448064 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1654806026087182339?s=20 https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1654903986808315904
Bakhmut is still smoldering after Russian forces blanketed the ruined town in glowing incendiary munitions. You can read our full report on this event here.
Fighting in Bakhmut proper remains intense, and footage from late April shows Ukrainian tanks shelling the Industrial College at point-blank range in fighting with Wagner mercenaries.
https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1654826817130250246 https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1654830272884383747 https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1654835244791627776
A large explosion rocked the city Saturday, reportedly when Ukrainian forces detonated a mined apartment block in an effort to stifle Russian advances.
Video published by a Wagner channel showing a building in Bakhmut reportedly destroyed by Ukrainian forces. https://t.co/8wjIxJbjmC pic.twitter.com/7LDNivh4v1
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) May 6, 2023
As the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive looms, occupied Crimea is increasingly on edge as strikes against Russian infrastructure grow more frequent.
Explosions rocked the city of Dzhankoi close to the former border between the occupied peninsula and southern Ukraine. Home to a major railyard and air base, both previously targeted in Ukrainian strikes, Saturday’s explosions may have led to a sudden exodus from the peninsula back to Russia.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1654829392177123336 https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1654758455524065281 https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1654755283107717121
Saturday’s Dzhankoi attack may be a continuation of Ukrainian efforts to prepare the battlespace for its counteroffensive, most recently evidenced by a series of strikes on Russian fuel depots.
The Ukrainian counteroffensive could possibly threaten the Russian-held road and rail junctions in Melitopol, cutting its link to Rostov Oblast via Berdyansk and Mariupol. Such a push would inevitably drive the masses toward the Crimean Bridge across the Kerch Strait. All of Russia’s overland supply to the peninsula would be limited to how much two rail lines, four highway lanes, and ferries can handle. That limited lifeline also has to be protected from another attack. Ferry traffic and other vessels can also help out, as they have after the bridge was stuck months ago, but logistics would be drastically constrained, regardless.
All the while signs further point to Ukrainian battle groups assembling, as video shows a column of M2 Bradleys and an M113 combat ambulance variant on a Ukrainian highway.
Satellite imagery shows more of the extensive fortifications Russian forces have built along avenues of advance from the frontline into occupied areas of Ukraine, with visible “Dragon’s Teeth” tank obstacles, trench lines, and dug-in firing positions near Svatove and Soledar.
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1654640871974002688 https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1654859814328217600
Those trench lines could soon see the kind of vicious, close-in combat like that seen in the video below. Drone footage captures a Ukrainian soldier, callsign “Chinaz,” killing six Russians in a trench single-handedly.
Боєць з позивним "Чиназ" самотужки знищив одразу 6 окупантів. Бахмутський напрямок.
Отримав контузію, але продовжував бій.
Думав кілька хвилин пройшло, а хлопці потім сказали – майже пів години, - Чиназ
"Чиназ" – окупанти – 6:0! https://t.co/GLExONwd4u pic.twitter.com/4lLbguCT5W— Анатолій Штефан (Штірліц) (@Shtirlitz53) May 6, 2023
Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) kamikaze drones remain a constant threat to Russian forces, as videos show hits on both a Russian tank and a 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm self-propelled heavy mortar.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1654882206072881154 https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1654885341797466113
The danger from the unexploded ordinance and mines left behind at former frontline areas persists across a swath of Ukrainian territory, and a Swiss company will supply Ukraine with 20 remote-controlled demining machines to assist in demining efforts. However, ongoing efforts remain high-risk, as a Russian artillery strike reportedly targeted an unarmed demining unit on the right bank of the Dnieper in liberated Kherson Oblast, killing six Ukraine Emergency Service officers.
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1654855511332773888 https://twitter.com/AlexPanchenko2/status/1654892221588463617
Footage shows a Ukrainian FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank gunner with the 59th Motorized Brigade getting a long-range kill on a Russian tank in Donetsk Oblast.
Donetsk Oblast, a Ukrainian Javelin ATGM team from the 59th Motorized Brigade targets a Russian tank, destroying it. pic.twitter.com/3nYwFkac0u
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 6, 2023
Lastly, in the ongoing saga of wildlife finding its way into Ukrainian trenches, some troops found what looks like a blind mole rat. The buck-toothed subterranean creature was less than thrilled to find soldiers having intruded on its underground home. At this rate, the Ukrainians are a few species away from an entirely four-legged combat squad.
Mole rat in the trenches pic.twitter.com/qEUHXIKYVK
— GWAR69 🇩🇰🇺🇦 (@GwarWorin) May 3, 2023
That's it for now. We'll update this story when we have more news to report about Ukraine.
Contact the author: stetson.payne@thewarzone.com