Ukraine cannot launch counter-offensive until weather improves, expert says

Ukrainian military on BMP-2 in Chasovyi Yar, Donetsk region
Ukrainian military on BMP-2 in Chasovyi Yar, Donetsk region

Read also: Estonia believes Ukrainian counter-offensive to start no sooner than in a month

“First of all, there are weather conditions,” he said.

“It has been raining in Donbas for two weeks straight, so much so, that it’s impossible to drive a truck there, and even tracked vehicles are stuck and cannot perform any logistical tasks.”

Zhyrokhov noted that, although the Ukrainian military leadership claims that there are not enough weapons and ammunition, “we obviously don’t know the dynamics of supplies of this equipment and ammunition over the last month, for example, and this dynamic, in my opinion, is quite powerful.”

According to The New York Times, Ukraine is preparing to launch a counter-offensive against Russian forces as early as next month.

Read also: Kyiv and Washington united ahead of Ukraine’s anticipated counteroffensive, says PM Shmyhal

Journalists say that although Ukraine shares few details of its operational plan with U.S. officials, the operation is likely to unfold in the country’s south, including along Ukraine’s coastline on the Sea of Azov, near the Russia-annexed Crimea.

Read also: Shape of Ukraine’s counteroffensive to be decided just before it begins, official says

Meanwhile, according Politico, the White House is quietly preparing for the possibility that if Ukraine’s spring counteroffensive falls short of expectations, critics at home and allies abroad will argue that the United States has come up short, too.

U.S. officials have also briefed Ukraine on the dangers of overextending its ambitions and spreading its troops too thin – the same warning U.S. President Joe Biden gave then-Afghan President Ashraf Ghani as the Taliban moved to sweep across the country during the U.S. withdrawal in 2021.

Read also: Zelenskyy explains why Ukraine will not give up defense of Bakhmut

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed on April 24 that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were preparing for a counter-offensive.

Earlier, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said that Ukrainian defenders were already conducting “counter-offensive actions” in the east of the country.

Read also: Russia’s General Staff spread disinformation about winter offensive on Kyiv – Pentagon leaks

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov previously stated that Ukraine’s counter-offensive would likely begin in April-May, across several fronts.

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