US vs. Russia: Why the Biden strategy in Africa may be failing

U.S. officials are starting to accept that their strategy of pressing Niger and other war-battered African countries to break off ties with Moscow and embrace democratic norms is no longer working.

The recent breakdown in relations with Niger, where American troops are set to withdraw as Russian fighters arrive, has forced a reckoning inside the Biden administration over its approach to maintaining its allies in volatile parts of Africa, according to two officials familiar with the matter. Both officials were granted anonymity to speak about sensitive diplomatic negotiations.

Countries across the continent, including Chad, Central African Republic, Mali and Libya, have turned toward Russia for security assistance. Now, in Niger, Russian paramilitary fighters have arrived, sidelining the U.S. and forcing the withdrawal of 1,100 U.S. military personnel there in the next several months, one of the officials said.

While Washington has raised concerns about Niamey’s relationship with Iran, U.S. officials are particularly worried about operating in a country whose government has increasingly close military ties with Russia.

The military junta in March called for the dissolution of the agreement that governs the American military presence in the country, but a date hasn’t been set for their departure.

If U.S. troops leave, America will lose access to a critical military base it relies on to fight groups like ISIS. The U.S. drone base in Niger is used for intelligence collection that is key for targeting terrorist strongholds in the region.

“When all of these countries kicked out the French and turned inward, we then tried to pivot to become the peacemaker in the hopes that we could keep our presence there,” said Cameron Hudson, a former intelligence officer for Africa at the CIA, referring to countries with coup governments in Africa. “All of that is clearly not working. We are now out. Russia is now in.”

The National Security Council did not respond to a request for comment.

U.S. law prohibits Washington from providing funds to coup governments, including Niger. But U.S. officials have tried to maintain diplomatic relations with those countries — many of which have vast natural resources — in an effort to one day resume military and other financial support.

The Biden administration’s strategy has been to try to engage coup governments and negotiate roadmaps and timetables for democratic elections.

But African leaders, while telling diplomats and other American officials that they want to maintain relations with Washington, have largely rebuffed suggestions that their countries need to more fully embrace democracy.

“With most of these governments, they really don’t want to be told what to do,” a third U.S. official said. “There’s a long history of the West telling African countries how to govern and they’re finally saying ‘enough.’”

Some African leaders have welcomed the Russian intervention, saying Moscow can provide fast security assistance when the U.S. cannot. Others have pushed back against U.S. demands for reforms, claiming the West has no right to lecture on democracy in Africa when it ignores similar issues with allies in other parts of the world.

Those rebuffs, including in Niger, have tested American officials as they attempt to try to find a way to hold on to Washington’s long-standing partnerships in countries that hold significant natural resource wealth.

Behind closed doors, officials increasingly believe that it may be unwise to completely withdraw from countries experiencing challenges in democracy, said a DOD official.

Doing so “does leave a huge gap for other less scrupulous competitors” such as Moscow or Beijing to swoop in.

“The fear is, ‘okay, we’re going to walk away, and Russia is going to come in,’” the official said. “Are we really being a good partner if we are leaving when they are most vulnerable?”

So far, the U.S. has tried to make the most of limited options.

Their most recent strategy has been to expose Russian mercenaries’ destruction on the continent, including their vast human rights abuses in an effort to discourage countries from allying with Moscow.

“Russian engagement in Africa is not helpful,” said a second U.S. official. “It's parasitic.”

So far, though, that effort has not reversed decisions by African leaders, especially those in coup governments, to partner with Russia. Their immediate needs for assistance and security are too great, the official said. And the U.S. can’t provide that kind of help.

“Where the Russians have a real advantage over the United States is they have weapons, and they sell weapons, including helicopters,” the senior U.S. official said. “And they sell small arms. There are a lot of security challenges in Africa and Africans need weapons.”

Russia has seized on the opportunity, using mercenaries and other fighters aligned with the ministry of defense to help provide security. In Mali for example, members of Russia’s elite Wagner paramilitary force have been helping government forces carry out strikes and raids that have killed scores of civilians in recent months, according to rights groups.

Now, for the first time in Niger, the Russian ministry of defense is overseeing a new security mission, dispatching paramilitary fighters to help train Niger’s military. Russia’s moves raised alarms among Biden administration officials who have tried to negotiate a deal with the military junta that would ultimately allow the U.S. troops to remain in the country.

Many of the Russian fighters in Niger, and those bound for neighboring Burkina Faso, formerly fought under Yevgeny Prigozhin when he led the Wagner forces. Wagner was Russia’s most elite paramilitary force, operating in various corners of the world, including Ukraine and Africa.

Since his attempted overthrow of the country’s military leaders last summer and his subsequent death, many of his former employees have joined new and existing private security forces overseen by Moscow’s military and intelligence services.

It is still not clear how soon U.S. forces will leave Niger, or if there might be a way to negotiate for them to remain. One senior U.S. official said there’s a possibility the U.S. still helps train the military in Niger.

Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder confirmed Monday “the beginning of discussions between the U.S. and Niger for the orderly withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country,” and said DOD is sending a small delegation to participate in the discussions. He did not give a timeframe for the delegation to arrive or for U.S. troops to leave the country.