U.S. Senate poll: New candidate takes slight edge in Republican primary, but a third of voters undecided

COLUMBUS, Ohio (WCMH) – Less than a week out from Election Day, a third of people planning to vote in the Republican primaries haven’t decided which U.S. Senate candidate they’re casting their ballot for.

An Emerson College poll — sponsored by Nexstar on behalf of NBC4, WJW in Cleveland, WKBN in Youngstown and WDTN in Dayton — found that state Sen. Matt Dolan has taken a slight lead among the three Republican candidates in the last days before the election. But ahead of the primary election on March 19, a plurality of voters haven’t committed to any Republican candidate.

Dolan has slight edge over other GOP candidates

The poll of 1,300 registered voters, conducted online and by phone March 7-10, found that in a hypothetical matchup, incumbent Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown has maintained a slight edge over Dolan, Secretary of State Frank LaRose and former car dealership owner Bernie Moreno. With a confidence interval of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points, however, the poll suggests any November contest will likely be a close one.

What to know about the Olentangy Schools levy

Of those who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary, 26% said they would vote for Dolan, compared with 23% for Moreno and 16% for LaRose. About a third of those polled said they were undecided.

“I’m not surprised there are so many undecideds, because in many ways, all three candidates are kind of running the same campaign,” said David Pepper, former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party and a Democratic strategist.

Dolan, who on Monday won the endorsement of Gov. Mike DeWine, has steadily gained support since Emerson College’s first poll in November. LaRose, meanwhile, has lost five percentage points since voters were last polled in January.

“It’s nice to see there’s a validation of the message, but we understand the only poll that really matters is results coming out next Tuesday night,” Dolan said in an interview.

A spokesperson for LaRose’s campaign, meanwhile, said in a statement that the campaign was “confident Frank will be Ohio’s next U.S. Senator.”

Moreno’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

In a hypothetical matchup against Brown in November, all Republican candidates lose – though most within the confidence interval. Brown tops Dolan 37% to 34%, Moreno 39% to 34% and LaRose 39% to 33%.

“I don’t think this poll is really telling us much more than each one of these candidates has to work until the very end, until polls close,” said Mehek Cooke, a Republican strategist.

November election: Priorities, Biden’s age and Trump’s criminal charges

Those polled, regardless of which candidate or party they prefer, believe that the economy is one of the greatest issues facing Ohio heading into the election, with a third of voters ranking it as their top issue. Immigration and healthcare lag behind the economy, with 13% and 11% of voters ranking them as their top issue, respectively.

Do endorsements matter in Ohio’s primary?

LaRose, Moreno and Dolan have each called for strict immigration policies and a closed border, and their supporters accordingly rank immigration as a major issue. Notably, 40% of Moreno supporters said immigration is the issue they’re most concerned with, compared with 29% of LaRose supporters and 22% of Dolan supporters.

Among those planning to vote in the Republican primary, an overwhelming majority said they plan to vote for former President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Moreno in the U.S. Senate race; less than 13% said they would vote for former governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race last week. In a matchup between 81-year-old President Joe Biden and 77-year-old Trump, about half of voters said they’d cast their ballot for Trump, while 40% would vote for Biden and 9% remain undecided.

While nearly 60% of voters said Biden’s age “raised serious doubts” about voting for him, just under half said Trump’s criminal charges – which range from falsifying business records to conspiracy to defraud the United States – were similarly worrisome. Regarding the presidential election, more than four-fifths of those polled said they will not change their minds before November.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to NBC4 WCMH-TV.