Surprising data suggests coronavirus housing boom is finally cooling off
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell in September after four straight monthly increases, but the housing market remains supported by record low mortgage rates and demand for more room as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on.
The decrease in sales reported by the Commerce Department on Monday followed data last week showing single-family homebuilding and permits racing to levels last seen in 2007 in September. Confidence among homebuilders hit a record high in October, while sales of previously owned homes rose to their highest level in more than 14 years in September.
The drop in new homes, however, likely signals a slowdown in housing market momentum heading into the fourth quarter. New home sales are counted at the signing of a contract, making them a leading housing market indicator.
New home sales fell 3.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 959,000 units last month. August's sales pace was revised down to 994,000 units from the previously reported 1.011 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for about 12.8% of housing market sales, rising 2.8% to a rate of 1.025 million units.
U.S. stocks were trading lower. The dollar rose against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices were higher.
The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered a migration to the suburbs and low-density areas as Americans seek more space for home offices and schooling, making the housing market the star of the economy's recovery from the recession, which started in February. Staggering unemployment, which has left 23.2 million people on unemployment benefits, has disproportionately affected low-wage workers, who are typically young and renters.
Last month's decline in new home sales did not change expectations that the housing market likely contributed to a sharp rebound in economic activity in the third quarter. Growth estimates for the July-September quarter are as high as a 35.2% annualized rate, which would recoup roughly two-thirds of the output lost because of the coronavirus.
The economy contracted at a 31.4% pace in the second quarter, the deepest decline since the government started keeping records in 1947. The government is scheduled to publish its snapshot of third-quarter GDP on Thursday.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around an average of 2.80%, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. But housing market activity could slow in the fourth quarter, with applications for loans to purchase of home falling in the past four weeks, likely because of tight supply.
In September, new home sales tumbled 28.9% in the Northeast. They fell 4.7% in the South, which accounts for the bulk of transactions, and dropped 4.1% in the Midwest. But sales increased 3.8% in the West.
The median new house price increased 3.5% to $326,800 in September from a year ago. New home sales last month were concentrated in the $200,000 to $399,000 price range.
There were 284,000 new homes on the market last month, up from 282,000 in August. At September's sales pace it would take 3.6 months to clear the supply of houses on the market, up from 3.4 months in August. Just over two-thirds of the homes sold last month were either under construction or yet to be built.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)