Two Views: Stop extending NATO farther east

War in Ukraine could be almost inevitable. According to americanmilitarynews.com, on Dec. 22 Russia had about 265,000 troops stationed within 250 miles of its border with Ukraine. To avoid the possibility of a war, Russia is asking that the U.S., and therefore NATO, promise not to extend NATO any farther east than the western boundary of Ukraine. Let’s explore why the U.S. is not likely to agree to promise that, and what it could mean in terms of the lives of the people of Ukraine.

President George H.W. Bush in 1990 promised Mikhail Gorbachev, then head of state of the Soviet Union, that the U.S. would never push for NATO to encompass any of the East European countries.

Bush’s Secretary of State James Baker’s famously stated “not one inch eastward” in his assurances about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on Feb. 9, 1990. This was just one part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted on Dec. 12, 2017, by the National Security Archive at George Washington University (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu).

Some people downplay this agreement because it was only verbal and not written on paper. Although there was no paper treaty, the validity of the agreement is demonstrated in that it appears in multiple memoranda of conversation between the Soviets and the highest-level Western interlocutors offering assurances throughout 1990 and into 1991 about protecting Soviet security interests.

The agreement involved the Soviet Union’s agreeing to the reunification of Germany (Russia’s worst enemy) and allowing the reunified Germany to join NATO provided the U.S. would agree not to extend NATO any farther east than it was at that time, which was up to the eastern border of East Germany.

However, soon after he took office, Bill Clinton began listening to the advice of the Pentagon generals and the lobbyists for the armaments industries. So during his administration and subsequently during the George W. Bush administration, at least 10 Eastern European countries, formerly under Soviet influence were courted by the U.S. and were admitted into NATO in contravention of the agreement. These included Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Czech Republic, and Slovakia.

So the U.S. and the western European members of NATO broke their promise, badly. Russia, as embodied by their leader Putin, is determined now to stop any further encroachment of NATO into its sphere of influence by insisting that Ukraine never be admitted into NATO. It seems to be a reasonable request. Particularly considering that Russia no longer represents a communist bulwark feverishly trying to impose its will on the western world, which was why NATO was set up in the first place.

One of the main reasons the U.S. has been interested in enlarging the membership of NATO eastward was the opportunity for our armaments industries to sell more F-16s and other military hardware to the new members. Not only that, but the American taxpayers are paying for a portion of these weapon sales, because they are just so expensive many of these countries, for example, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia, can’t afford full price. Lockheed Martin doesn’t care whether they get paid through Polish auspices or directly by the taxpayer.

It’s just plain dangerous and idiotic if the United States doesn’t accept the Russian request. The only rationality for not doing so is that there would be a lot of money to be made. By a few people.

Since we’ve already been assured that a war in Ukraine will not be fought using U.S. or U.K. troops or any other western-nation forces, we would be asking Ukrainian young men and women to die or be maimed for the sake of our hang-up about having to expand NATO to Russia’s borders.

Andrew Mills lives in Lower Gwynedd.

This article originally appeared on Bucks County Courier Times: Two Views: Stop extending NATO farther east