Tusk’s Coalition Gains Bittersweet Win in Polish Local Elections

Piotr Skolimowski and Wojciech Moskwa
·3 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk failed to land a knock-out blow against the former ruling nationalists in local elections.

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In the first big test for his four-month government on Sunday, his three-way alliance jointly gathered 52.5% of vote for regional assemblies, according to an exit poll conducted by Ipsos. Still, the Law & Justice party remained the single most-popular group with 33.7% support.

The result will help cement Tusk’s hold on power in the EU’s biggest eastern economy. But it sends a signal that the party he unexpectedly ousted from power in last year’s parliamentary elections remains a formidable challenge for his coalition.

The ballot comes half a year after Tusk’s alliance won the election amid record-high turnout, ending eight years of nationalist rule that became marred by conflicts with Brussels and accusations of graft and the erosion of democratic standards.

Tusk, whose Civic Coalition was backed by 31.9% of voters, told supporters late on Sunday that while the pro-EU coalition repeated its success from October “this doesn’t change the fact that today we see that the road won’t be easy. Nothing will be easy.”

Szymon Holownia, the leader of the coalition’s Third Way party, called the result “a warning sign” for the ruling alliance “to argue less among themselves and get to work.” The parties have fallen out over support for abortion in past weeks. The Third Way got 13.5% of vote on Sunday.

The outcome adds to evidence that populist forces remain strong across the EU’s east. An ally of Russia-friendly Prime Minister Robert Fico won presidential elections in Slovakia on Sunday. A rising star in Hungary’s opposition rallied tens of thousands of his supporters on Saturday, pledging to pivot toward the European mainstream, but he faces a long-shot bid to challenge Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s rule.

EU Funds

Since taking office, Tusk won EU approval to release as much as €137 billion ($149 billion) in aid, which had been suspended over rule-of-law concerns. His cabinet also began reversing the previous administration’s court changes that increased political sway over judges, which has helped strengthen the zloty and reduce yields on government bonds.

Turnout is set to be much lower in these polls, according to Ipsos, reaching 51.5%, compared with 74% in October.

Law & Justice chairman and once Poland’s most-powerful politician Jaroslaw Kaczynski welcomed what he called his party’s eighth-straight electoral victory. “As Mark Twain once said: ‘The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated’,” he told supporters, alluding to recurring media speculation that he may be facing a leadership challenge.

The Civic Coalition confirmed its dominance in bigger cities. In Warsaw, current mayor Rafal Trzaskowski looked set to win another term outright with 59.8% of the vote. The Tusk ally is widely expected to run for president in an election due next year after narrowly losing to Andrzej Duda in 2020.

Official results will be announced in the coming day with run-offs in races for mayor where no candidate won at least half the votes are scheduled for April 21.

--With assistance from Natalia Ojewska.

(Updates with more details and context from the first paragraph.)

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