Trump's plan to cut aid to Central America could push more migrants to come to US

The Trump administration has said Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras will receive aid in the future only if they take “concrete actions” to reduce immigration. But experts say freezing international aid may increase the number of immigrants heading to the United States.

President Donald Trump’s threats over foreign aid for Central America made headlines in October 2018, as a migrant caravan approached the U.S.-Mexico border and his Republican Party was facing dire predictions in the midterm elections. The threats were repeated when a second caravan arrived in early 2019.

Aid to El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras ⁠– referred to as the “Northern Triangle” ⁠– is aimed at bringing people out of poverty, increasing job opportunities, reducing corruption in police forces, increasing government transparency and strengthening judicial systems. Researchers and politicians say these programs are long-term investments that can deter migration.

But cutting aid may do the opposite by compounding desperate conditions that drive immigrants to the United States’ southern border.

How much foreign aid is sent to Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras?

In recent years, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the departments of Defense, Agriculture, State, and Health and Human Services each funded at least $10 million dollars in programs to these countries. These form part of the $210 million dollars in foreign aid the U.S. is spending in Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras this fiscal year, according to the USAID Foreign Assistance Database. That amount represents less than 5% of how much the U.S. sets aside to fund border patrol and military operations at the southwest border.

How much the government spends in aid is a legacy of previous “obligations,” legal contracts or grants signed by the U.S. with non-profit organizations, foreign governments and U.S. companies. Since obligations are tied to the year in which a contract was signed, they are a stronger indicator of policy during that year than spending, which can be tied to a prior year’s contract.

U.S. aid under contract to agencies in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras grew more than 40% in the three years after 2014, when the Obama administration, with bipartisan support of Congress, determined it was in the United States’ national security interest to improve governance and reduce crime in the region and address the root causes of more than 68,000 unaccompanied minors who entered the United States that fiscal year.

In all, aid legally obligated to the region under the Obama administration was more than $500 million annually toward the end of President Barack Obama's second term. In fiscal year 2017, obligated aid increased to $555 million in the first fiscal year of Trump’s presidency and sharply dropped to $343 million the next fiscal year. So far this year, it sank below $200 million, nearly half of what was contracted in 2014.

Other U.S. agencies, including the Labor, Treasury and Justice Departments, also fund programs to strengthen Central American governments. The State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, for example, states that it has funded programs in Central America to “keep Americans safe by countering crime, illegal drugs and instability abroad.” All of these programs are credited with helping to reduce homicide rates in Honduras and El Salvador by up to 73%, according to USAID and the State Department.

Moving forward, the Trump administration has said it will “reprogram” aid to Central America to other foreign policy priorities if Northern Triangle governments do not show “sufficient political will” to slow down migration.

How will Central American nations and citizens be affected if the U.S. cuts aid?

Researchers found reductions in foreign aid are associated with violent conflict, which is a major “push” factor for Central American migration.

Just two borders separate the United States from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, countries that face mounting security challenges. El Salvador and Honduras have the first- and third-highest homicide rates in the world, based on UN data, and many Guatemalans endure high rates of corruption, inequality and chronic malnutrition.

Eric Olson, a fellow with the Washington, D.C., think tank the Wilson Center, specializes in organized crime and security. Olson said the U.S. could be “shooting itself in the foot” by cutting foreign aid intended to fight corruption that potentially deters immigration.

“There’s a pretty direct line between high levels of corruption and migration because it relates to the hopelessness people feel,” Olson said.

He foresees that the cuts will affect young people and children who live in areas with high crime and high penetration of gangs.

“They’re trying to give the children alternatives, they’re working with families to prevent intrafamily violence, there’s a whole host of alternatives that are preventing immigration,” Olson said.

U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, said at an April hearing of the House Foreign Affairs committee that the decision to cut funding will trigger more, not less, migration and leaves a void for China to step into.

“This assistance merges security and economic support to create stability in the region and address the root causes of illegal migration,” he said.

For many Central Americans, the loss of aid can make the difference between eating and not eating.

In southeast Guatemala, Catholic Relief Services has already let 100 of their staff and local partners go because of the recent cut in foreign aid, according to a spokesman. The region is entering its sixth straight year of drought, which has left tens of thousands of Guatemalans food insecure in a country with the highest rate of child malnutrition in the Americas.

Several years ago, the charity worked with local partners to identify farming families in southeastern Guatemala who were particularly vulnerable. Working with USAID, they were able to provide monthly cash transfers, worth about $35, during the lean season when rainfall was particularly scarce. Budget cuts could mean that 1,100 families that would have worked with Catholic Relief Services this year won’t receive short-term emergency cash assistance for agricultural supplies.

“The first year or two of drought, people eat up their seeds, then they sell off their livestock, then they sell off the tin in their roof,” said Paul Townsend, the charity’s representative for Guatemala and Mexico.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump, Central America foreign aid: Cuts may stoke immigration crisis