If Trump wants to win the election, he must reject MAGA sycophants
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The wannabe Trump vice-presidents have made a sad spectacle of themselves, genuflecting in support for their morally deficient leader in what has to be one of the least edifying trials in history. Potential VP candidates JD Vance, Vivek Ramaswamy and Doug Burgum all made a show of obedience at Trump’s Manhattan trial over the past few weeks.
As they grovel at the feet of the leader of the GOP, they are aware that the presidency could soon be in their reach. Simply put, despite the bad looks from Gotham, Trump and his Republican party right now hold the edge.
Biden’s bungling of the Gaza protests, and his general incompetence, has some “anti-populists” reconsidering Trump. But the real killer issues are the border and Biden’s economic record. Largely ignored in the party press, there’s been a surge in workers seeking unemployment benefits and much slower GDP growth. Indeed, one in four Americans overall fear losing their job in the next year.
Having already lost much of the white working class, the party’s historic base, the Democrats are also alienating two historically Left-leaning groups: ethnic minorities, and young people. Recent polling suggests that young people are shifting away from Biden, who won their votes easily in 2020, and towards Trump. Media accounts may link this to the Palestine crisis but polling shows that young people rank virtually every issue as being more important to them.
But perhaps the most critical shift this year involves ethnic minorities. Trump has made considerable strides in appealing both to African Americans, and particularly blue collar black males. Latino identification with the Democrats now sits at the lowest level ever.
These three groups – Latinos, African Americans, and young people – should determine the winner of vice-presidential sweepstakes. Trump seems unlikely to win over the highly educated professional classes but can appeal to suburban “soccer Moms”, many of whom voted for Biden in 2020, who have been turned off by his embrace of far-Left policies.
But 2024 is not 2020, or even 2016. Trump needed Mike Pence to bolster his credibility with the evangelical Christians and small-town moralists who have traditionally been a big part of the GOP base. This time around the challenge is quite different. Biden’s addled shift to the Left, his increasingly unsure gait and general appearance of fragility means that the base, however horrified by Trump’s amorality, will be less likely to break ranks.
Running with the likes of Doug Burgum might have the advantage of bringing competence and tech savviness. but Burgum would offer more to Trump as a cabinet officer. Running with another MAGA favourite, JD Vance, would offer a more intellectual take on Trumpism but would do little to exploit Biden’s basic weaknesses. Clearly the dog-murderer Kristi Noem, whose appeal to women might have been useful, has managed to disqualify herself.
The real focus should instead be on groups shifting away from the historic Democratic base. This includes younger voters who might be attracted to the selection of former Democratic Congressperson Tulsi Gabbard, an attractive 43-year-old military veteran and Samoan surfer from Hawaii. She could appeal to younger voters by making an appeal as a younger Republican convert.
Similarly, Tim Scott might make an ideal candidate, appealing both to African Americans and to suburban moderates who might find his down-to-earth earnestness a good brand for the evolving party. The deeply religious Scott appeals to some of the old Pence constituency, but also offers a welcome message of racial harmony.
But perhaps the best choice might be someone like Senator Marco Rubio, who epitomises the shift among Latinos to the Right. Rubio – who Trump teased as “little Marco” during the 2016 campaign – is a serious policy thinker and a strong advocate for more populist approaches, in line with the interests of the Trumpian wing of the party.
Latinos have good economic reasons to oppose Biden. His green war targets Hispanics deeply involved in the nation’s “carbon economy” that depends on reliable and reasonably priced. Latino workers account for approximately 20 per cent of the transportation industry’s workforce, over 22 per cent of all manufacturing workers, and a third of all construction workers.
Capturing a large share of this constituency could prove the key to GOP hopes this year and even more in the future. The Latino population grew by 23 per cent from 2010 to 2020, and now account for 18.7 per cent of the US population. Despite generally lower participation rates, more than 17.5 million Latino voters are expected to cast ballots this November nationwide, representing a 6.5 per cent increase from Election 2020. More than one of every 10 voters will be Latino (11.1 per cent) this year, a 20.5 per cent increase from 2016.
Latinos have become increasingly critical of Biden’s border policies. Recent polling shows that 40 per cent consider the border to be in crisis, and dislike the government’s lax enforcement policies. A full third favours more deportations, a position once rare among those of Hispanic heritage.
If Trump selected a vice-president like Gabbard, Scott or Rubio, he could act as kingmaker for the next shaper of the Republican party after he exits the scene. The electoral future of the GOP will be as a working class dominated, increasingly diverse small business party. Trump would do well to consider choices that embrace that trend, a win for the Republicans, but perhaps also for the country as well.
