Trump shows slight lead over Biden in new exclusive poll even as views of economy brighten

Donald Trump edged Joe Biden 40%-38% in an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, a near-tie in a fluid electorate as the candidates head out of the starting gate.

The first USA TODAY survey since the two contenders effectively clinched their presidential nominations found a significant group of voters who were unhappy with their options and open to being persuaded, ingredients for a turbulent campaign ahead.

In what could be good news for Biden, an increasing number of Americans reported seeing green shoots in the economy, making the rosiest assessment of where it stands since the early days of his presidency.

"I think public awareness is starting to catch up with the reality that the economy is actually doing really, really well," said Craig Richey, 62, a composer and university music teacher from Los Angeles who was called in the poll. A Democrat, he said the "noise machine on the other side" had drowned out Biden's "phenomenal" accomplishments in rebuilding an economy that had been wracked by the pandemic.

But Nick Garcia, 40, a mechanic from Cadiz, Kentucky, who plans to vote for former president Trump, blamed Biden for the downturn he sees. "I think it's just struggling to hang on," he said of the economy in a follow-up phone interview. "When Trump was in office, I was doing really good."

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The poll of 1,000 registered voters, taken by landline and cellphone on March 8-11, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Don't bet the farm yet: 25% might switch

Nearly eight months out, the election is not set yet. One in 4 of those surveyed said they might change their minds before November.

That unsettled sentiment was bipartisan, including 14% of Biden voters and 15% of Trump voters.

Most of those now backing a third-party candidate said they were open to changing their minds, among them 75% of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. supporters and 94% of Jill Stein supporters. That signals the potential erosion that independent candidates often see as Election Day nears.

It also provides a big opportunity for each major-party candidate to make his case to voters who are now reluctant or unwilling to support him and to convince those voters that it would be dangerous or unwise to back the other guy.

One key swing group has been dubbed the "double haters," the 15% who dislike both Biden and Trump.

In the survey, 25% of them supported Trump, 18% Biden, and 44% various third-party candidates. Kennedy drew more of these voters, 21%, than Biden did.

Jana Pender, 67, a retired casino housekeeper from Detroit, is a registered Democrat but now considers herself an independent because she said neither party was doing enough to represent working people on the economy or address the humanitarian plight of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

She won't vote for Trump and was "99%" sure she won't support Biden. "I might do a write-in, somebody like Jesse Jackson or Dennis Kucinich," she said. "I know they are not running, but I'm so angry. I mean, really angry."

Will an improving economy boost Biden?

Voters ranked inflation and the economy as the most important issue determining their vote, at 29%, with immigration (24%) and threats to democracy (23%) close behind. The only other issue that broke into double digits was abortion at 10%.

Views of the economy have rebounded to the most optimistic level since Biden moved into the White House.

In the 10 national USA TODAY/Suffolk polls taken since then, the percentage who said there was an economic recovery underway stood at 32% in the first one and steadily fell to a low of 9% in July 2022. Since then, it has steadily risen to 33% in the latest poll.

That could boost Biden, whose approval-disapproval rating was still decidedly tepid, at 41%-55%. Still, that did reflect an improvement since the previous USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, taken in late December, of 39%-58%.

He was now backed by 81% of his fellow Democrats, with the rest scattered among third-party candidates; 5% were undecided. Among Biden's supporters, 54% said they were voting mostly for him; 41% were voting mostly against Trump.

"The biggest thing for me is that he's not Trump," said Matt Williams, 30, a middle school and high school teacher from Sidney, New York, accusing the former president of trying to "gut" democracy. But Williams said he wasn't "super-stoked" about his plan to vote for Biden. "I wish we had other popular Democratic candidates who are younger," he said, mentioning Rep. Katie Porter of California and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.

Trump faced some erosion within his party as well: 85% of Republicans were supporting him, with 6% backing Kennedy and 2% undecided. That said, his voters were significantly more committed to their candidate: 74% said they were voting mostly for him, 22% mostly against Biden.

Trump's approval rating for the job he did as president was higher than it was when he was in office. Now 49% express approval and 47% disapproval.

The economy is "going in a negative direction, and it has to be Biden" at fault, said Gary Glover, 58, a crude oil hauler from Hobbs, New Mexico, who is enthusiastically backing Trump. "You see it in your grocery bill and you see it in gas prices; you can see it in anything you buy....

"I mean, I'm a barbecue guy and I used to go buy a brisket − a good size, a 14-pound brisket−for fifty bucks. Now I'm paying $150 to $200 for that same brisket."

The limited impact of speeches and trials

Just a week after the Super Tuesday primaries settled any doubt about who the nominees were going to be, both Democrats and Republicans seemed prepared for a 2020 rematch.

Among Democrats, 22% said they would feel "excited" by Biden's nomination at the convention and another 60% "satisfied." Just 13% had a negative reaction of being "dissatisfied" or "fearful."

Among Republicans, 43% said they would feel "excited" by Trump's nomination and another 43% "satisfied." Twelve percent had a negative reaction.

Looking back, Biden's State of the Union address last week had a mixed impact on the 56% of Americans who saw all or part of it: 33% said it made their view of Biden better, 28% worse.

Looking ahead, 44% said they planned to follow Trump's trial in New York, scheduled to begin March 25, on criminal charges of paying hush money to a porn star before the 2016 election. But the effect a conviction could have on their vote seemed small.

Among Trump voters, 84% said they would still vote for him if he was convicted in this trial or others. Among those who would change their vote, 8% would support a third-party candidate and less than 1% − in other words, just two of the 336 Trump voters − said they would switch to Biden.

"The indictments are make-believe," scoffed Richard Krasnodemski, 80, a retired auto worker from Allen Park, Michigan, who said a conviction wouldn't change his vote for Trump. "I understand they want to break him, make him hire a million attorneys...

"That's the Democrats; that's their big thing now; that's the only thing they have to do," he said. "They cannot make any promises on what they're going to do if they get elected. All they can do is say, 'Look at all the things he did. He got indicted four times.'"

Sarah Sabornie, a retired nurse from Cary, North Carolina, declared her support for "Joseph Robinette Biden," using his full name and underscoring the high stakes in the election.

Trump "will subvert justice" if he wins, she warned. "It's our democracy. You know, I'm 71. I have lived in a democracy for 71 years. I am crystal clear that it will be absolutely ripped to shreds."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump beats Biden in new poll even as views on economy brighten