Trump leads Biden by some 6 points in new FL survey, but among independents the race is a tie

Former President Donald Trump (L) and President Joe Biden (R) | Getty Images

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Former President Donald Trump holds a 6-point lead over President Joe Biden in a poll of nearly 2,000 likely Florida voters.

That’s according to a new survey conducted this week by St. Pete Polls for WMNF Radio in Tampa, which shows Trump polling at 48% (47.5%) to Biden’s 42% (41.7%) in the Sunshine State. Another 6% says they support someone else, and 5% were undecided.

The survey also shows however, that among political independents in Florida, the race is virtually tied, with Trump at 41.3% and Biden at 40.9%

Nearly six percent said they preferred another candidate, and five percent were undecided.

The results are slightly better for Biden than the most recent survey of the two candidates in Florida. Both clinched their respective party’s presidential nominations earlier this week.  A Florida Atlantic University poll taken last November, for example, had Trump up by 10%, 49%-39%.

Looking deeper into the St. Pete Poll numbers, one surprising statistic is when it comes to young voters. According to the survey, Trump leads Biden with voters between the ages of 18-29 by 18%, 51%-33%. Biden is age 81 and Trump is 77.

Among Hispanic voters, Trump leads Biden by 17 points, 53%-36%.

Trump’s lead in Florida isn’t a surprise, as the Republican Party of Florida continues to build up a lead over the Florida Democratic Party in terms of voter registrations in the state. Republicans had a lead over the Democrats of nearly 780,000 at the end of 2023. And Trump has defeated his Democratic opponent in Florida in the past two presidential elections. As to voter registration numbers, Republicans are at 5,141,848, Democrats at 4,362,147, and No Party affiliation (NPA) at 3,528,807, according to the Florida Division of Elections.

And Florida is now Trump’s home turf. He changed his permanent residence to his Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach in 2019.

It’s unclear how seriously Biden and the Democrats nationally will compete in Florida, which is no longer considered a swing state. The president’s only visit to the state this year was when he held two fundraising events in South Florida in late January.

However, Vice President Kamala Harris has been in Florida several times in 2023 and 2024, including traveling to the state capital in January 2023 to mark the 50th anniversary of the landmark U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Roe v. Wade, which granted access to abortion care. Led by conservative justices, the high court overturned Roe v. Wade on June, 24, 2022.

In January 2024, Harris began traversing the country for her “Fight for Reproductive Freedoms” tour, to highlight the consequences of abortion bans.

In addition, Harris will be in South Florida on March 23, for a visit to Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, in Broward County, where 17 students and staff were killed in a mass shooting on Feb. 14, 2018.

The survey also shows Ron DeSantis’s approval rating in Florida nearly split, with 47% approving his performance in the Sunshine State, and 45% disapproving.

The survey of 1,963 likely Florida general election voters was conducted from March 11-13 through an automated phone call polling system and a manual polling system, with 80% by phone and 20% by text.

The survey contacted 40% of Republican voters, 34.3% of Democratic voters, and 26% of either non-party-affiliated or those registered with third parties — roughly the same breakdown of the current voter registration system in Florida. The survey has a margin of error of +/-2.2% at a 95% confidence level.

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