Trump’s Iowa Victory Won’t Influence New Hampshire Voters, Pollster Says

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(Bloomberg) -- Republican frontrunner Donald Trump’s record victory in the Iowa caucuses is unlikely to affect voters in New Hampshire, who head to the polls next week in the second contest for the party’s presidential nomination, according to a pollster in the state.

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“The electorates are very different,” Andrew Smith, who directs the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of Power” on Tuesday. “The turnout in the Iowa caucuses is very low, 5-10%, so you tend to get the most ideological voters. In New Hampshire, we have turnout of 40-50%, so you get more regular sort of voters.”

Smith’s poll from University of New Hampshire for CNN released earlier this month found that Nikki Haley, who came in third in Iowa, was closing the gap with Trump. She had 32% support, compared with the former president’s 39%. DeSantis, who came in a distance second in Iowa, only had 5% in the survey.

The poll also included three candidates who have already dropped out: former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (12%), entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (8%) and former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson (1%).

The relatively close gap between Haley and Trump and movement from voters whose first choice is no longer in the race, suggests that Haley and Trump could be in a two-way competition in New Hampshire on Jan. 23.

Still, Smith added, Haley has a slim chance of winning the nomination because her appeal in New Hampshire to moderate voters interested in tax and deregulation policy won’t carry over to other key states in the Republican primaries.

“Haley has to win here or she doesn’t really have an avenue going forward,” he said.

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