How Trump endorsements propelled 2 NC candidates to wins, sidestepping head-to-head fights

After Tuesday night’s runoff, politicians, candidates and campaign advisers across the state agree on one thing: former President Donald Trump’s endorsement is the gold standard to get elected as a Republican in North Carolina.

So is his influence, coupled with state lawmakers’ ability to hand-draw congressional districts, leaving voters with less of a true say on who is representing them?

On the surface, it seems that way.

Ten of North Carolina’s 14 congressional districts are drawn to favor Republicans, with five of those 10 having incumbents. Only two of the remaining districts drew in large crowds of candidates this year. And once voters chose their top two candidates, Trump got involved.

In the 13th Congressional District, Trump’s endorsement of one candidate led the other to drop out as voters were casting ballots in the runoff.

In the 6th district, Trump had endorsed the top vote-getter in the primary, and once

the second-place candidate was able to ask for a runoff, Trump instead hired him, allowing his candidate to win.

But GOP leaders tend to agree that even though it seems like Trump’s influence has stripped voters of some of their role in choosing their representatives, Trump’s views align with what a Republican voter wants.

Jonathan Felts, a campaign adviser for both of those Trump-endorsed primary winners, said he does not believe Trump’s influence is diluting voters’ choice at the polls.

“The Trump endorsement is without question the best asset any Republican primary candidate can have, but it’s misleading to suggest voters are not the ones determining winners and losers in primaries,” Felts told McClatchy in a written statement. “Voters support Trump-endorsed candidates because those candidates most closely align with primary voters and President Trump on policy. To be clear, the Trump endorsement is the bonafide voters care most about, but that’s because President Trump’s MAGA agenda most closely aligns with where GOP primary voters are on policy.”

Both candidates won Trump endorsements on their own merits, Felts said, although he acknowledged another factor played a role: the intervention of Sen. Ted Budd, who vouched for McDowell to Trump and helped broker a meeting between Trump and Knott.

Trump’s endorsement

On March 5, 13th district Republican voters selected Johnston County attorney Kelly Daughtry as their nominee, ahead of 13 other candidates. But with so many people in the race, she wasn’t able to secure the more than 30% needed to stop the second-place candidate from asking for a runoff election.

Enter Brad Knott.

Knott, a former federal prosecutor, finished more than 7,000 votes and 9 points behind Daughtry, but was allowed to request a runoff.

And he did.

He then hired Felts and Michael Luethy as campaign advisers. Felts and Luethy have become campaign mainstays in North Carolina with connections to both traditional national Republican figures and the Trump world that have helped their candidates succeed.

It happened in 2022, when then-Rep. Ted Budd chose to take on former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Rep. Mark Walker to run for Senate. McCrory had statewide name recognition that many thought would make him a shoo-in for the job. But when Budd was able to pull off a surprise Trump endorsement, followed by funding from Republican super-PAC Club for Growth Action, everything changed.

“Former President Trump’s endorsement has now become the most important factor for House and Senate candidates in primaries throughout the nation,” McCrory told McClatchy Wednesday. “Ted Budd and (Sen.) J.D. Vance were the initial major national beneficiaries of this post-January 6 endorsement trend which clearly has had a continued impact on future elections over old-school factors including candidate experience, conservative track record, qualifications, name ID, debates, consultants and fundraising.

“Nothing else but the Trump endorsement really matters in Republican primaries.”

He added that it has become apparent that the majority of the Republican primary voters base their vote on Trump’s endorsement.

“The endorsement is skipping the formality of actual voting, similar to wasting time voting in general elections in already predetermined gerrymandered districts,” McCrory said. “I wish I would have foreseen this new political norm in my 2022 primary Senate race. It’s disconcerting but political reality.”

Daughtry’s campaign

The Trump factor and its effect was obvious to the Daughtry campaign.

On April 5, exactly one month after the primary and 39 days before her runoff, Trump posted on his own social media site his endorsement of Knott, with an attack against Daughtry to boot.

“Brad Knott is a strong patriot who is running for Congress in North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District against a RINO, Kelly Daughtry, who has given money to Far Left Democrats, pledged to vote for Obama, and is no friend to MAGA,” Trump posted on Truth Social, with his “complete and total endorsement.”

Susan Roberts, a political science professor at Davidson College, said it is unusual for Trump to attack a candidate in his endorsements, though he has been known to call a candidate weak. She added that calling someone a RINO, which means Republican in name only, seemingly has an impact on voters.

Luke Stancil, Daughtry’s senior advisor, told McClatchy that that impact was immediately clear. Daughtry’s internal polling went from 20 points ahead to 30 points behind.

And, he said, Trump’s words made it increasingly difficult for Daughtry on the grassroots level. Any campaign event she attended, she would have to answer for whether she was a real Republican.

“It was kind of her word, against the president’s,” Stancil said.

Stancil, who was an administration official for McCrory, said he saw this play out when McCrory ran for Senate.

“It’s disheartening that a good conservative governor like Pat McCrory can have his image nearly tarnished with Republicans because of the Trump endorsement,” Stancil said. “We should be about ideas, we should be about results, but we’re a party of what one man says now.”

With just a week left in the race, Daughtry walked away from her campaign.

But since there wasn’t an official way to end a runoff after ballots had already been cast, she had to witness the actual damage Trump did to her campaign.

Knott finished 17,590 votes ahead of Daughtry, who only took in 1,991. Knott secured more than 90% of the vote. However, it’s not clear what Daughtry’s total would have been had she not announced she was withdrawing.

“This race was a high-profile juggernaut race and if the president stayed out, Kelly Daughtry wins,” Stancil said. “That does not diminish the value and the type of campaign that Brad Knott ran. They ran the long game. They knew what they needed to do to secure the victory and they followed their game plan and they won.”

Redistricting

State Republican lawmakers redrew North Carolina’s 13th district to favor a Republican to win, so while Knott still has to face off against his Democratic opponent, Frank Pierce, Knott is likely the next member of Congress to represent the district.

Rep. Wiley Nickel, a Democrat from Cary who currently represents the Triangle district, chose not to run for reelection, knowing his chances of winning, based on the new district, were slim to none.

And watching Trump change the outcome of an election frustrated him even more.

“Voters in the 13th District had absolutely no say in this election,” Nickel said. “The winning Republican candidate is someone who’s totally loyal to Donald Trump and is going to Washington to work for Donald Trump, not for the majority of the constituents in this new 13th District.”

The districts, which are currently split evenly between seven Democrats and seven Republicans, are likely to be represented next year by at least 10 Republicans and at least three Democrats, with one spot up for grabs. The 1st Congressional District in the state’s far northeast is the only true swing district.

Besides Nickel, both Reps. Jeff Jackson and Kathy Manning, Democrats from Charlotte and Greensboro, respectively, announced their retirements, knowing it was impossible to win reelection.

House Speaker Tim Moore, a Republican from Cleveland County, is likely to replace Jackson. Addison McDowell, a Republican and former lobbyist living in Davidson County, will replace Manning.

Both have been endorsed by Trump.

He’s also endorsed Reps. Virginia Foxx and Richard Hudson, as well as Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for governor and Rep. Dan Bishop for attorney general.

Roberts said voters often look to the party for a cue on who to vote for, but it used to be that parties would infrequently endorse candidates in primaries. She said in researching primaries, she has found that has happened more frequently, especially under Trump. She added that it’s typically based not on ideology, but on what Trump does.

Roberts said primaries have become more expensive, more competitive and more contentious in recent years, and when you add Trump in as a factor, that’s a challenge for party leadership.

6th District

North Carolina was set to have another runoff, before Trump got involved.

In the 6th district, based in the Triad, McDowell finished first with 26% of the vote. Walker finished behind him with 24%.

Trump has a history of snubbing Walker, most recently endorsing McDowell over Walker and their four other opponents ahead of the March 5 primary. And Walker has been known to publicly attack the former president, despite regularly seeking his endorsement during campaigns.

But within days of Walker asking for a runoff against McDowell, Trump hired Walker to serve on his campaign as director of faith groups and minority communities. Walker accepted the position and Trump prevented a runoff.

“President Trump’s endorsements still matter and help turn out the electorate,” said Jonathan Bridges, Walker’s campaign spokesman. “Primary Republican voters want members of Congress who will work with Trump to secure the border and fix the economy.”

The Ted Budd effect

But Bridges honed in on something else he believes helped both Knott and McDowell, other than Trump.

“Another driving force behind McDowell’s and Knott’s victories was the support from Senator Budd,” Bridges said.

McDowell worked as a district director for Budd when Budd was a House member. His brother, a lobbyist, is friends with Donald Trump Jr.

Knott’s brother, Tucker, is chief of staff for Budd.

Bridges pointed to the political influence they share and the connections they have to Budd.

Stancil agreed, characterizing it more succinctly.

“Ted Budd is Donald Trump’s man in North Carolina,” Stancil said. “And his chief of staff is Brad Knott’s brother, and that’s totally fine, that’s politics. I’m not vindictive towards Ted Budd, or you know, saying anything bad against him. I’m just saying he has the president’s ear.”

Knott and McDowell’s political connections opened up their abilities to get meetings with Trump.

“Budd is playing kingmaker right now with a Trump endorsement because he has the president’s ear,” Stancil said.

Felts did not deny Budd’s involvement in the races, but said it was his candidates who got the endorsements over the finish line.

“Ted Budd was helpful but the candidates have to do the heavy-lifting to win a Trump endorsement and win the election,” said Felts, who also advised Budd’s Senate campaign. “Ted vouched for Addison McDowell to Trump but it was Addison who had to meet with the President and make his case. Ted helped secure a meeting for Brad, but it was Brad and Brad’s record that secured the Trump endorsement.”

Felts said candidates need to be viewed as authentic, both to Trump and the voter.

“President Trump’s authenticity is a big part of his appeal,” Felts said. “Voters believe what he says in public is what he says in private. If voters think a candidate is not authentic, their support is going to be soft at best.”

He said both Walker and Daughtry came off as inauthentic.

Felts said Walker spent the past two years dismissing the Trump endorsement and criticizing the former president but his campaign was “all Trump all the time.”

And Daughtry’s campaign was dinged for a Facebook comment she made about her support of former President Barack Obama, a Democrat, and for giving donations to Democratic candidates in the past.

“Her campaign theme was, ‘I’m one of you,” Felts said. “‘I grew up here! You know me! MAGA! MAGA! MAGA!’ And voters thought, ‘We do know you. And this is not who you are.’”

Stancil said such attacks didn’t take into account the tens of thousands she gave to Republicans across the nation, or the hundreds of thousands her family has given to Republicans.

Felts said Trump endorsed McDowell because he “had an authentic motivation for running voters could relate to,” and he endorsed Knott because he spent most of his career prosecuting illegal aliens, drug dealers, and other hardened criminals. When Brad Knott discusses law and order, a key pillar of the Trump agenda, he sounds authentic.”

Roberts said that though Knott’s immigration stances work in a primary election, they might not work in the general election, where he has to win over both parties.

She said another factor that voters pay attention to in primaries is electability going into the general election.

“People may say it’s ideology or policy positions, but I think it’s also who can best beat the Democrat because if you don’t win, you can’t play,” Roberts said.

Asking for an endorsement

Stancil told McClatchy that Daughtry’s campaign did not reach out to Trump for an endorsement.

They were under the false belief he was staying out of the race due to his pending litigation, Stancil said. Stancil also said he heard from opponents’ campaigns that they had unsuccessfully sought meetings with the former president for that same purpose and that Trump would not be getting involved.

“In hindsight, that our opponent did (ask for an endorsement), there should have been a stronger push, but we were trying to make it about the issues of our district,” Stancil said.

NC Reality Check is an N&O series holding those in power accountable and shining a light on public issues that affect the Triangle or North Carolina. Have a suggestion for a future story? Email realitycheck@newsobserver.com