How Trump's New Census Nominee Could Rig Future Elections
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Donald Trump has made a habit of appointing individuals to serve in his administration who are either supremely unqualified or seemingly opposed to the very objectives of the agencies they are tapped to lead. The reported leading candidate to assume the No. 2 post at the United States Census Bureau manages to check both boxes. Citing two sources familiar with the agency’s plans, Politico reported on Tuesday that Thomas Brunell, a political and bureaucratic neophyte who has argued against competitive elections, has emerged as the front-runner to serve as deputy director. The potential appointment of Brunell has amplified existing concerns that the Trump administration will seek to alter the 2020 U.S. Census in a manner that could have long-lasting ramifications. “If true, it signals an effort by the administration to politicize the Census,” Terri Ann Lowenthal, told Politico. “It’s very troubling.”
For a position typically held by nonpartisan civil servants, Brunell’s background makes him a particularly eyebrow-raising candidate. According to Politico, Brunell has testified on behalf of Republicans in a half-dozen gerrymandering court cases and penned a book titled Redistricting and Representation: Why Competitive Elections Are Bad for America. As a professor at the University of Texas at Dallas, his research, which centers on redistricting and voting-rights cases, has frequently been used by the G.O.P. to defend gerrymandering. The Trump administration declined to nominate Brunell to the top director post at the bureau earlier this year, which would have required Senate confirmation. But the deputy job wouldn’t require Congress’s weigh-in. “This is worse than making him director,” a former high-ranking official at the Commerce Department, which oversees the Census Bureau, told Politico, “There still is going to be hell to pay on the optics. The Democrats and civil rights community will go nuts.” (Burnell declined to comment to Politico.)
As deputy director, Brunell could potentially tip the scale in a way that could dramatically undercut the objective mission of the agency. “There are tons of little things he could be doing to influence what the final count looks like,” the former high-ranking Commerce Department official said. “The ripple effect on reapportionment would be astounding.” For instance, there are concerns that Trump may issue an executive order requiring the 2020 Census to include a question about citizenship, which could result in fewer responses from minority and immigration populations, ultimately leading to their underrepresentation in the Census. (Two senior administration officials told Politico that this option has not gained much traction in the West Wing.)
Beyond Brunell’s politically tinged résumé, his appointment would mark a stark departure from the well-established trend of tapping individuals with substantive statistical backgrounds for the post. In the deputy director role, Politico reports that Brunell would effectively serve as the bureau’s chief operating and financial officer, managing the agency’s estimated $15.6 billion budget—a task for which he lacks the requisite experience. “It’s quite a difference going from an academic setting to the Census Bureau,” a person who has worked with Brunell told Politico. “I don’t think he’s done the administrative work that would be needed to be at a high level in a large organization like [that].”
The hypothetical appointment of Brunell adds clout to concerns, expressed by voting-rights advocates, that Trump is moving undermine the $16 billion 2020 Census. His starkly anti-immigrant rhetoric, along with his unsubstantiated claim that widespread voter fraud allowed Hillary Clinton to win the popular vote, have lead activists to fear that his administration will over- or under-count certain populations, which could impact both voting districts and the number of electoral votes allotted to states. “We could be headed for a train wreck if the Census Bureau doesn't get the resources it needs,” Lowenthal told Politico in April.
If the Democrats manage to win back control the House—and possibly the Senate, although it looks much less likely—they would regain power over redistricting, which the G.O.P. deployed to great effect during the Obama administration. But if the Trump administration angles to rig the 2020 U.S. Census, such a victory could prove hollow. “It is imperative that the Census Bureau’s leadership be viewed by the public and by lawmakers as completely nonpartisan,” Lowenthal said. “If either the director or the deputy director bring partisan baggage to their position, public confidence in the integrity of the census could plummet. So could congressional confidence. And it is Congress that must accept the apportionment results.“ In short, she said, “All this stuff worries me.”
This story originally appeared on Vanity Fair.
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