Tropical Storm Ian expected to become a hurricane by Monday; much of FL Gulf Coast under threat

Tropical Storm Ian is expected to strengthen rapidly as it moves west-northwest over the western Caribbean Sea Sunday and Monday. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect Ian to become a hurricane Sunday night or early Monday, and a major hurricane by early Tuesday. A major hurricane is a storm of category 3 or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

A possible storm surge of 4 to 7 feet is possible between Bonita Beach and Englewood, with a 3-5-foot surge possible south of Bonita Beach to East Cape Sable.

Sunday evening, the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 81.4 West. Ian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass near or west of the Cayman Islands on Monday, and near or over western Cuba Monday night and early Tuesday. Ian will then emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

On the forecast track, the center of Ian is forecast to pass well southwest of Jamaica today, and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday.

Much of Florida's Gulf Coast remains in Ian's "cone of uncertainty," with a hurricane possibly making landfall between Fort Myers and the Panhandle next week. Residents in Florida are urged to keep an eye on this storm and have hurricane plans in place.

Gov. DeSantis declared a preemptive state of emergency on Friday for 24 Florida counties. The governor expanded the order Saturday to include all counties.

Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of Ian, the NHC said.

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Cone of uncertainty: See the latest graphic from the NHC

Satellite images: See latest satellite image from NOAA, for a clearer picture of the storm's size

Where is Ian now?

Here is the latest data on Tropical Storm Ian pulled from the National Hurricane Center's 11 p.m. Sunday advisory:

Location: 140 miles south of Grand Cayman, and about 390 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba

Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph

Movement: northwest at 13 mph

Pressure: 989 MB (millibars)

When next advisory will be released: 5 A.M.

Watches and warnings

A hurricane warning is in effect for:

• Grand Cayman

• Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

• Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas

• Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge southward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

• Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

• Englewood southward to Chokoloskee

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Spaghetti models: Track Ian here

Helpful hurricane resources and links

Get your home ready: Here's how to prepare your home for a hurricane, from well in advance to just before a storm's arrival

Need to prepare for a hurricane? Here's what you should have in a disaster supply kit

Hurricane preparedness list: If a storm is coming, here is what you need to do now

Video: Helpful tips for a hurricane survival kit

Hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones: What’s an invest and why do they keep saying tropical cyclone?

Officials encourage residents to assemble a hurricane kit early, storing enough supplies to last at least three days. Doing so ensures there are adequate supplies available on store shelves and prevents a rush — and shortages — that regularly occur when a storm is imminent.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: The latest on Tropical Storm Ian: Florida Gulf Coast under hurricane threat