Tropical Storm Ian forms over the central Caribbean Sea. Florida is still on its projected path

Tropical Depression Nine is now Tropical Storm Ian, which formed over the central Caribbean Sea Friday night, according to the latest National Hurricane Center's advisory.

According to NHC's 11 p.m. advisory, after 24 hours, the slow-moving storm is expected to begin recurving around the western side of this high, turning northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, and then northward while crossing Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico and toward Florida.

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Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 11 p.m. Sept. 23:

Tropical Storm Ian

  • Location: 385 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica

  • Maximum wind speed:  40 mph

  • Direction: West-northwest at  12 mph

  • Next advisory: 5 a.m. ET

At 11 p.m. EDT, the center of Ian was forecast to move across the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday, pass southwest of Jamaica on Sunday, and pass near or over the Cayman Islands Sunday night and early Monday. Ian is forecast to approach western Cuba on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the tropical storm is expected to become a hurricane Sunday night.

A hurricane watch is in effect for: 

  • Cayman Islands

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

  • Jamaica

Hurricane Fiona

  • Location: 140 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia

  • Maximum wind speed: 105 mph

  • Direction: North at 46 mph

  • Next advisory: 5 a.m. ET

At 11 p.m. EST, the post-tropical cyclone is moving north near 46 mph. A slower north-northeast or northward motion is expected through Sunday.

The center of Fiona will move across eastern Nova Scotia overnight and into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Saturday morning, and then move across Labrador and over the Labrador Sea on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fiona is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through Saturday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles.

A hurricane warning is in effect for: 

  • Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Brule

  • Prince Edward Island

  • Isle-de-la-Madeleine

  • Newfoundland from Parson's Pond to Francois

A tropical storm warning is in effect for:

  • St. Andrews New Brunswick to west of Hubbards Nova Scotia

  • West of Brule Nova Scotia to Cap Madeleine Quebec

  • Anticosti Island

  • Sheldrake Quebec to north of Parson's Pond Newfoundland

  • Boat Harbor to Hare Bay Newfoundland

  • Francois to St Lawrence Newfoundland

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

  • North of Boat Harbor Newfoundland to West Bay Labrador

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Spaghetti models for Hurricane Fiona

See the latest models on where Hurricane Fiona could go.

Tropical Storm Gaston

  • Location: 50 miles north of Faial Island in the central Azores

  • Maximum wind speed: 60 mph

  • Direction: Southeast at 8 mph

  • Next advisory:  9 a.m. EST

At 11 p.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Gaston will move near or over portions of the Azores through early Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Hermine

  • Location: 315 miles northeast of the Cabo Verde islands

  • Maximum wind speed:  40 mph

  • Direction: North-northwest at 10 mph

  • Next advisory:  8 a.m. EST

At 11 p.m. EST, the center of Tropical Storm Hermine is moving toward the north near 10 mph and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by late Sunday, followed by a turn to the northwest by Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Hermine could become a remnant low on Monday.

What else is out there and where are they?

Disturbance 1: Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

How likely are they to strengthen?

Disturbance 1: Despite unfavorable upper-level winds, some slow development of this system is possible over the next several days while it drifts northwestward or northward over the central tropical Atlantic.

  • Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.

  • Formation chance through 5 days: low, 30 percent.

Who is likely to be impacted?

Ian is expected to produce heavy rainfall and instances of flash flooding and possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.

Tropical wave: It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical wave.

Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season.

Colorado State University's 2-week forecast for Sept. 15-28

Colorado State University's hurricane forecast Sept. 15-28 gives the highest odds for above-normal activity — 50% — with lower odds for normal — 40% — and below-normal  — 10%.

When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

Watch: Hurricane season begins June 1. Here are terms to know

Watch: Watches and warnings. Why you should know the difference

When is the peak of hurricane season?

Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA
Hurricane season's ultimate peak is Sept. 10 but the season goes through Nov. 30. Credit: NOAA

Although the season has gotten off to a quiet start, the peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

Weather watches and warnings issued for your area

If you can't see any local weather warnings here, you'll need to open this story in a web browser.

Tropical forecast next five days

See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below.

Excessive rainfall forecast

What's out there?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical forecast for the next five days in the Atlantic as of 5 a.m. Friday, Sept 23, 2022.
Tropical forecast for the next five days in the Atlantic as of 5 a.m. Friday, Sept 23, 2022.

What's next?

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This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: Tropical Storm Ian forms, Florida on its path