Tories Weigh Unity Cabinet Led by Mordaunt If Sunak Can’t Hang On After Local Elections
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
(Bloomberg) -- The UK’s local elections next month pose a moment of maximum danger for Rishi Sunak. How the Conservative Party fares is being closely watched by the increasing number of Tory lawmakers considering what Plan B might look like.
Most Read from Bloomberg
With a massive nationwide YouGov poll this week showing several of the Conservative Party’s best-known ministers heading for a fall in a general election expected later this year, Sunak is particularly vulnerable if the May 2 local vote leads to a night of heavy Tory losses in councils and mayoralties. That’s when a group of lawmakers and former advisers who’ve been plotting against the premier plan to strike.
Mindful of the plotters, tentative plans have been floated by Members of Parliament in the moderate Tory One Nation caucus for what they describe as an unlikely emergency scenario where Sunak is ousted. While it’s not an outcome they seek, if it happens, some center-right MPs could support a so-called “unity” cabinet made up of both moderates, right-wingers and future leadership contenders, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg, requesting anonymity discussing behind closed-doors conversations.
That such discussions are even taking place underscores Sunak’s faltering grip over the Conservatives, who have already switched prime minister twice this Parliamentary session. With the Tories now sensing impending defeat to Keir Starmer’s Labour Party in the general election - which must be held within 10 months - some say changing leader again gives them their only chance of rescuing the situation. For others, it’s a leadership psychodrama too far that amounts to electoral suicide.
Supporters of the unity cabinet proposal say it’s the most plausible way of handling any leadership changeover — even if they don’t want one. One idea is that Penny Mordaunt, who’s run for leader twice before, could lead the Tories into the election based on her record as a campaigner, particularly on defense issues. There would be senior roles for other hopefuls like Kemi Badenoch, Grant Shapps and James Cleverly, while MPs on the right such as Robert Jenrick and Priti Patel would be brought back into the fold to run the immigration brief, in an attempt to stop votes going to the Reform UK party founded by Brexit campaigner Nigel Farage.
Allies of Mordaunt have sought to distance her from any suggestion that she wants to replace Sunak as premier, though she has not commented on the record.
The local elections will see more than 2,500 councilors elected as well as the mayor of London and a number of regional mayors. If the Tories lose their two English mayors, Andy Street in the West Midlands and Ben Houchen in Tees Valley, as well as shedding several hundred councilors — they are defending more than 900 seats — it would leave Sunak in crisis, Tory MPs believe.
Mindful of the party’s increasingly toxic brand, prominent Tory candidates have actively distanced themselves from their party and Sunak, according to a Bloomberg News review of Facebook posts listed in Meta’s Ads Library.
If the Tories struggle in the local vote, “the backbench vultures are likely to be circling,” Chris Hopkins of the pollster Savanta said. Holding the two mayoralties would offer Sunak “a symbolic sense of achievement,” while losing both “may prove totemic and disastrous,” he warned.
One ally of the premier conceded they thought there was around a 30% chance he could face an organized attempt to remove him after the local elections, a higher probability than seen by many Westminster observers.
That’s a concern that has crystallized in recent weeks among Sunak’s aides, who have been asked to produce a strategy to protect him. It’s led to a shift in thinking on migration policy at the top of government, with the premier now seriously considering ignoring any court rulings that block his flagship policy to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda, and even campaigning to leave the European Convention on Human Rights if that’s what it takes to get flights away, people familiar with his thinking said.
“Border security and controlling illegal migration is more important than membership of any foreign court,” Sunak told the Sun in an interview on Wednesday. That’s a marked change in tone from the prime minister, who previously resisted efforts by the Tory right to set up a fight on the ECHR, which underpins the Good Friday Agreement that brought relative peace to Northern Ireland, as well as Britain’s intelligence-sharing agreements with allies.
A law seeking to enable the Rwanda flights is set to pass Parliament in around two weeks, with some government officials hoping the first deportation could take place around the date of the local elections. That could offer a new narrative in the face of a bad defeat, potentially insulating Sunak from a challenge from the right, his allies believe.
Other MPs see a pivot toward a more hard-line immigration policy as a sign of desperation. One said Sunak’s aides were offering a sop to the right to try to prevent them from writing letters of no confidence in the premier. It’s also viewed as an attempt to head off a return to front-line politics by Farage, which some Tories fear could see his Reform party overtake them in the polls.
Still, right-wingers plotting to oust Sunak are circulating polling they hope will convince MPs a change of leader is needed. Private polling from one Tory strategist that’s been shared with backbenchers shows the Tories holding as few as 80 seats at the general election, an even worse result than a YouGov survey of 18,761 adults this week that put Labour’s majority at more than 150.
While most in Westminster still expect Sunak to lead the Tories into the election, one loyalist said that continued sniping from his internal critics will just see the party weakened further. That could help turn the poll projections into reality come election day.
--With assistance from Kitty Donaldson.
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
How Bluey Became a $2 Billion Smash Hit—With an Uncertain Future
Everyone Is Rich, No One Is Happy. The Pro Golf Drama Is Back
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
