The Topline: How well does Minnesota represent the United States?
The State Emblems Redesign Commission voted Tuesday, Dec. 12, 2023 to adopt this design for the new state flag. Photo courtesy of Minnesota Historical Society.
Welcome to The Topline, a weekly roundup of the big numbers driving the Minnesota news cycle, as well as the smaller ones that you might have missed. This week: Minnesota representativeness; wage vs. rent hikes; firearm deaths; and a welcome relief from drought.
How well Minnesota represents the U.S.
The Washington Post’s Andrew Van Dam recently took a stab at using data to identify the U.S. state that best represents the country as a whole. It’s an important question in the election forecast realm, as it turns out, because you need to have a sense of how well polls or elections in one state might predict outcomes in another.
Van Dam started with a whole host of census variables to see how close or far each state was to the national average. On race, for instance, the composition of Illinois most closely resembles the entire U.S. (Minnesota is almost squarely in the middle of the pack, meaning neither especially similar nor different).
Minnesota looks a lot like the whole U.S. when it comes to religious composition and a variety of social metrics, like veteran population, median age and population density. We’re especially dissimilar on income (higher than average) and education (better educated than average).
Mash all the variables together and it turns out that Illinois, Florida and Pennsylvania are the most representative states, while Alaska, Hawaii and New Mexico are the most unique. Minnesota ranks 21st on the list, not a standout but not particularly different either. It’s the Midwestern way.
Rent hikes outpace wage increases in most cities, but not Minneapolis
Data from Zillow shows that rents have increased 50% faster than earnings over the past four years. Rents rose 30%, while wages were up just 20% over the same period.
Metro-level data from the report shows that communities in Florida, which has drawn large numbers of out-of-state migrants, are particularly hard hit. In Tampa, for instance, rents have gone up 50% while wages are only up by 15%.
Bright spots include cities like Milwaukee and Minneapolis, where earnings are actually rising faster than rent. As always, we must note the effect of Minneapolis’ 2040 plan, which successfully boosted housing supply and affordability in the city. But nationwide those stories are the exception, not the rule.
Minnesota firearm deaths well below national average
The Violence Policy Center, a group that advocates for tighter regulations on guns, last week released its annual state-level ranking of firearm deaths. Tallying up homicides, suicides and accidental shootings, the researchers found that the highest rates of death were in southern states with lots of guns and loose regulations, while the lowest rates were in northeastern states with relatively few guns and tight laws.
Minnesota has the eighth-lowest rate of gun death in the nation, coming in at 9.6 deaths for every 100,000 residents. By contrast, the rate is three times higher in states like Mississippi and Louisiana.
Gun policy has been a subject of debate in the Legislature this year and as of right now it looks like lawmakers are erring on the side of incremental, rather than sweeping change.
Majority of state no longer in drought, finally
A series of back-to-back storm systems has helped lift much of Minnesota out of drought, leading to the best hydrologic outlook in at least four years, according to MPR News. Those rains came as a particular relief on the heels of an exceptionally warm and dry winter, which left little snowpack on the state.
The latest statewide drought monitor data, issued Thursday, shows slivers of “moderate” drought in the northwest and southeast, surrounded by some areas of abnormal dryness. But as of right, now more than 60% of the state has all the water it needs. Meteorologists hope the moisture will help keep wildfires at bay, which should mean a less destructive summer fire season.
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