Top targets in battle for NC legislature in 2024

RALEIGH, N.C. (WNCN) – While all 170 seats in the North Carolina General Assembly are on the ballot this year, a relatively small number will ultimately determine the balance of power in Raleigh.

As Republicans seek to hold on their veto-proof supermajority, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee has identified 14 districts in the state House and Senate that the group views as being key this year. That includes nine districts in the House and five in the Senate. Many of them are in and around: the Triangle, Charlotte, Wilmington and Asheville.

Editor’s note: to view the full list of districts and candidates running in those districts, scroll to the bottom.

“We’re still looking at the same areas, even though they’ve changed a little bit,” said House Democratic Leader Robert Reives. “I don’t know that it’s going to be as much a difference in national money and a difference in Biden money, as it is I think people in North Carolina have a whole different feel.”

Republicans in the legislature redrew the districts for the House and Senate last year. The GOP currently has the precise number of seats in the House and Senate needed to override vetoes, meaning Democrats need a net gain of one seat.

“They’ve obviously protected the Republican majority, but in doing so they’ve had to create some challenges for their own members. They’ve taken their margins down,” said David McLennan, an expert on state politics at Meredith College. “You can’t protect them all. So, they’ve created opportunities for Democrats to have an opening. Now, whether Democrats can walk through that opening, I’m not sure.”

The DLCC invested $15,000 initially in North Carolina, as part of its plan to target states that have a Republican supermajority in their legislatures along with a Democratic governor.

“Since Republicans have taken over control, we’ve reduced taxes year over year. We have reduced costs back to the citizens of North Carolina,” said Rep. Matthew Winslow (R-Franklin/Granville). “We’re not going to lose the supermajority. We’re going to have a supermajority in the House and the Senate.”

The GOP gained its supermajority last year when Rep. Tricia Cotham, of Mecklenburg County, switched parties. Republicans have redrawn her district to slightly favor Republicans.

Reives, who said he still talks to Cotham and considers her a friend, said her seat is a key one to try to flip.

“Even in 2018, two-point districts were the type of districts we were able to flip. So, I think that what her switch did as far as enabling a supermajority that immediately started making the attacks that it did is the problem she’s got,” said Reives.

During the March primary, Rep. Cotham’s mother Pat Cotham, a Democrat who has been on the Mecklenburg County Board of Commissioners since 2012, lost her re-election bid, finishing fourth in the race for an at-large seat.

“We’re dedicated to supporting Tricia in (her) race. I realize there are some hard feelings in that district. But, she didn’t leave the party. The party left her,” said Winslow. “And, I think the people in that district recognize that and are gonna support her.”

Rep. Winslow says his party will focus on issues like inflation and taxes. House Speaker Tim Moore (R-Cleveland), who is running for Congress, also has made immigration a central issue.

Rep. Reives said Democrats will talk about healthcare, including expanding Medicaid coverage and restrictions on abortion, as well as Republicans’ efforts to increase funding for school vouchers.

National attention has focused on some of the statewide candidates Republicans have nominated, including Mark Robinson for governor and Michele Morrow for superintendent of public instruction.

Social media posts Morrow made a few years ago called for the executions of prominent Democrats. The state Republican Party has not commented on whether it stands by her.

“It’s finally showing what we meant about the sky is falling,” said Reives. “The problem that they’ve got is you can’t divorce yourself from two factors in any caucus: who your ultimate leadership is and who your ultimate base is.”

Rep. Winslow said, “Each district has its own district-level issues that we must deal with. So, what we encourage candidates to do is focus on what’s best for your district.”

Races DLCC is targeting

• Senate Dist. 7 (New Hanover): Republican Michael Lee (incumbent), Democrat David Hill, Libertarian John Evans

• Senate Dist. 11 (Franklin/Nash/Vance): Republican Lisa Stone Barnes (incumbent), Democrat James Mercer

• Senate Dist. 13 (Wake): Democrat Lisa Grafstein, Republican Scott Lassiter, Libertarian Susan Hogarth (Grafstein is a current state senator who moved into this district to be able to run)

• Senate Dist. 18 (Wake/Granville): Democrat Terence Everitt, Republican Ashlee Bryan Adams, Libertarian Brad Hessel

• Senate Dist. 42 (Mecklenburg): Democrat Woodson Bradley, Republican Stacie McGinn

• House Dist. 24 (Nash/Wilson): Democrat Dante Pittman, Republican Ken Fontenot (incumbent)

• House Dist. 25 (Nash): Democrat Lorenza Wilkins, Republican Allen Chesser (incumbent), Libertarian Nick Taylor

• House Dist. 32 (Granville/Vance): Democrat Bryan Cohn, Republican Frank Sossaman (incumbent), Libertarian Ryan Brown

• House Dist. 35 (Wake): Democrat Evonne Hopkins, Republican Mike Schietzelt, Libertarian Michael Oakes

• House Dist. 37 (Wake): Democrat Safiyah Jackson, Republican Erin Pare (incumbent), Libertarian Christopher Robinson

• House Dist. 73 (Cabarrus): Democrat: Diamond Staton-Williams (incumbent), Republican Jonathan Almond

• House Dist. 98 (Mecklenburg): Democrat: Beth Gardner Helfrich, Republican Melinda Bales

• House Dist. 105 (Mecklenburg): Democrat: Nicole Sidman, Republican Tricia Cotham (incumbent)

• House Dist. 115 (Buncombe): Democrat Lindsey Prather (incumbent), Republican Ruth Smith

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