Top 4 Sacramento mayoral candidates have shot at making runoff in closely watched race

The four leading Sacramento mayoral candidates still have an equal shot at making it to the November runoff, an expert said, making Tuesday’s primary the most closely-watched race in the capital region — and California.

“There’s no closer race in the whole state between four candidates,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of bipartisan voting data firm Political Data Inc. “We could be in a crazy situation where this race could get closer before anybody develops a lead.”

Asian Americans typically vote early by mail, which likely contributed to Dr. Richard Pan’s first-place spot in the early return batches, Mitchell said. Meanwhile, Black voters often cast their ballots on Election Day, he said, which means Flojaune Cofer’s standing could improve in the coming days as returns are counted.

Pan garnered 23% of the votes counted so far, according to county election officials, a handful of votes ahead of Kevin McCarty and Steve Hansen, while Cofer had 21% of ballots counted.

Between the 8 p.m. and midnight updates, the difference between the candidates narrowed with only 808 votes separating Pan from Cofer, while Hansen was just eight votes behind Pan.

In other words, it’s anyone’s race and that trend is likely to continue when the county releases the next batch of results Friday afternoon. The county has until the end of the month to count all the ballots and certify the result.

The race would go to a runoff in November if no one candidate receives a majority — the only thing that seems certain a day after the race.

Mitchell said, however, that Sacramentans would likely know by next week the name of at least one of the mayoral candidates vying to succeed Darrell Steinberg, who did not endorse any candidate in the run-up to the primary.

The race is so close that Pan’s campaign may be reaching out to voters whose ballots were not counted because of invalid signatures, to see if they can convince them to travel to the voter registrar office to sign a card. Mitchell said those minor issues sometimes happen with Asian seniors who sign their name, for example, in Chinese characters.

In early returns, Pan won most precincts in North Natomas, where he lives, as well as the Pocket, Greenhaven, Meadowview and Valley Hi/North Laguna neighborhoods. Hansen, the most moderate contender in the six-person race, won most precincts in East Sacramento and Land Park, which contain the city’s most affluent enclaves. Cofer, the most progressive candidate, won most of midtown, downtown and Oak Park. McCarty won many precincts in Del Paso Heights and other parts of northeast Sacramento.

Pan most-recognized name in pack

Notoriety for the former legislator — term-limited after eight years in the state Senate — could also explain why he wound up atop the heap Tuesday night.

Name recognition likely overshadowed any lackluster performances Pan had in several mayoral debates, capital watchers noted.

During a forum filled with hundreds of high-schoolers, Pan flubbed when he said they were at Luther Burbank High School, not Hiram Johnson. During a Sacramento Bee and KVIE debate Jan. 31, Pan was the only candidate who could not name a location where he would want to place a homeless shelter. Asked again the next day, he still did not know.

But even in the city’s first competitive mayoral race since 2016, most voters didn’t watch the debates, said political consultant Andrew Acosta.

“Pan’s a former state senator and he’s a doctor. He’s credible,” Acosta said. “Voters were not hanging on every word someone said at a debate. Turnout was miserable. I don’t know if it even gets to 35%.”

Mailers may have played role

The mailboxes of Sacramento voters were overflowing with negative mailers about the mayoral race in recent weeks, which also likely affected the outcome. McCarty was hit by the most negative mailers, said Acosta, who worked on his campaign.

Several of the mailers targeting McCarty were funded by the California Association of Realtors and by the California Alliance of Family Owned Businesses PAC, which raised over $600,000 to oppose him. A major contributor of the California Alliance of Family Owned Businesses PAC is the California Operators PAC, which is largely funded by McDonald’s franchisees, according to state campaign disclosure filings. As an assemblyman in recent years, McCarty voted for controversial bills aimed at improving working conditions and establishing a higher minimum wage at fast food restaurants.

“Some random group can jump in and punch someone,” Acosta said. “It was an easy way for them to show everybody down the street at the capitol, ‘look what happens if you cross us.’”

Unions got involved, too. SEIU Local 1000 and the Sacramento Central Labor Council funded negative mailers on Hansen. International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Local 340 funded mailers hitting Pan.

Cofer was the only candidate to avoid negative mailers. Despite her fourth-place standing Tuesday night — and a likely loss for her progressive ally Councilwoman Katie Valenzuela — she was line dancing at a watch party that had the largest turnout compared with her three top opponents.

“I think what we saw was the supporters around Flo were the most passionate for their candidate,” Acosta said. “But I don’t know how many were out there.”