Is It Time for Romney to Rethink His Strategy?
President Obama has regained momentum in the presidential race, at least according to the results of the just-released Quinnipiac battleground-state polls and a separate Democracy Corps poll conducted last week. All four polls show Obama at the 50 percent mark or above, with growing leads over Mitt Romney.
What should concern the Romney campaign is that these numbers are coming out despite the fact that voters are indicating their economic situation has gotten worse. Voter opinions of an incumbent usually track closely with the trajectory of the economy. But that’s not happening this time, perhaps because voters have lowered their expectations about the economy.
And if that’s the case, Romney's campaign may need to rethink the “prevent defense” strategy it has employed throughout the race, most recently the decision to limit Romney’s press conferences on an important overseas trip. The trip should have been a smashing success; instead, because of challenges dealing with a frustrated press corps, it was at best a missed opportunity.
August will be a seminal month for the Romney campaign. Romney will be picking a running mate and showcasing his candidacy in front of millions of television viewers at the national convention in Tampa, Fla., at month’s end. If he pulls into the lead in late August, his campaign team can breathe a sigh of relief. But if Obama is still chugging along, there could well be an enveloping sense of panic. Read more
--Josh Kraushaar, Hotline executive editor
@HotlineJosh
NATIONAL JOURNAL’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE REPORT
Romney Economic Message Edged Out Over Palestinian Furor
[National Journal, 8/1/12] While Romney was on his gaffe-plagued tour abroad, the Romney team made an intensive push around the theme of “We Did Build This,” in reference to Obama’s now famous remark that “if you have a business, you didn’t build that.” National Journal’s Jill Lawrence explores how the push fared in 12 battleground states.
Twitter Will Gauge Voter Sentiment in New Venture
[National Journal, 8/1/12] As the political survey research industry confronts unprecedented challenges, many are looking to non-survey approaches to fill the gaps. And Twitter may have the answer – the company joined forces with a data analysis firm and two campaign pollsters to develop a new way to measure how its users feel about the candidates.
Emboldened Tea Party: Romney Better Move to the Right
[ABC News, 8/1/12] Riding a wave of recent successes in the House and now also the Senate – with the stunning Texas victory of Tea Party-backed Ted Cruz over an establishment candidate – Tea Party groups are eyeing the possible control of both chambers, a prospect they say would force a President Romney to the right.
In Quest For Women Voters, Obama Should Push Obamacare
[U.S. News and World Report, 8/1/12] Obama’s numbers are plummeting among single women, bad news for the president because they have been among his most loyal supporters. But Obama’s healthcare law could be a potent issue for Democrats this year in that demographic.
Tax Reform: No Silver Bullet
[National Journal, 8/1/12] What Obama hasn’t mentioned in his attack on Romney’s tax-reform plan is that any kind of comprehensive “tax reform” would not offer the government an easy path out of the country’s debt and deficit problems. National Journal’s Jack Farrell weighs in.
The Best Pick For Romney’s VP? The One Nobody’s Talking About NEW!
[Christian Science Monitor, 8/1/12] Romney should consider House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia, who could help him with the Jewish vote, gain him support in a crucial swing state, and give him an exciting surprise selection bounce.
GOP: W.H., Messina ‘Failed’ on Transparency
[Politico, 7/31/12] Republicans are hitting the Obama campaign hard on claims that the White House conducted business on private e-mail accounts and met with lobbyists at the Caribou Coffee across the street. In 2011, White House press secretary Jay Carney said all of their work is conducted on work e-mail, reports BuzzFeed.
Analysis: Scientists Go Beyond the Polls to Forecast U.S. Election
[Reuters, 8/1/12] Academics across the country have found equations to predict who will win the presidency under different circumstances. This science has sometimes proven more accurate than a poll taken the day before the election.
Reporters Covering Romney’s Overseas Trip Missed the Real Story NEW!
[Fox News, 8/1/12] If media outlets had sent their foreign affairs reporters on Romney’s trip instead of sending political reporters, they might have given us serious reporting on the international issues the presumptive GOP nominee raised during his trip overseas.
Romney: Culture Does Matter
[National Review, 7/31/12] When Romney suggested earlier this week that cultural differences could explain Israel’s economic success compared to Palestinians, it created a furor and Romney later walked back on the statement. But in a new opinion piece, Romney writes that, yes, “culture does matter” after all.
Republicans on Romney's Trip: Any Damage Won't Be Fatal
[National Journal, 8/1/12] Romney’s misadventures abroad are no doubt less important to many voters than the state of their pocketbooks or even how many medals American swimmer Michael Phelps ends up collecting at the Olympic Games--at least that's what GOP strategists are saying.
Will Romney’s Trip Abroad Affect His Chances in November?
[Washington Post, 7/31/12] In the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, just 35 percent said that Romney would make the better commander in chief--and it’s hard to imagine that Romney did himself any favors on his trip abroad. But there is an argument to be made that nothing other than the economy at home matters to undecided voters.
It's Not Just the Economy, Stupid
[National Journal, 7/31/12] Even if voters care far more about jobs and the deficit, other policy debates can still be influential if they shape how people perceive the candidate's character.
Obama 2012 Fundraising Close to 2008 Record-Setting Pace
[Huffington Post, 8/1/12] Although it's unlikely that Obama will meet his 2008 record of raising $750 million, he's working hard to make sure he at least comes close to the levels he reached four years ago -- and he's getting close.
In a Twist, Romney Lauds Israeli Health Care System
[Boston Globe, 8/1/12] Israel has universal health care, the kind of care that Republicans have pushed against previously--and yet Romney praised the country's success in covering its population at a low cost on Monday.
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