Here are Yahoo, we live in an against-the-spread world. Let’s get you some winners.
Browns +3 vs. Packers: I like to fade teams coming off “phony wins” like Green Bay’s victory over Tampa Bay (the Bucs had a signifiant edge in first downs and yards from scrimmage). Cleveland’s offense finally has a shot with Corey Coleman and Josh Gordon back, and DeShone Kizer’s play is starting to improve (he’s also proving handy as a willing scrambler).
Cardinals +3 vs. Titans: Speaking of phony things, how about those 8-4 Titans? Tennessee has been outscored on the season, and it slots a mere 20th in the DVOA power rankings (behind eight teams who are .500 or worse). Arizona’s defense has started to rally in the second part of the year, and Bruce Arians has kept the offense respectable despite two quarterback changes.
Dolphins +11 vs. Patriots: It’s not easy backing the Fish at any price, but this has traditionally been a tricky venue for the Patriots — even the glory-year Patriots — and New England could find itself looking ahead to next week’s showdown against Pittsburgh.
Chiefs -4 vs. Raiders: There are all sorts of valid flags on Kansas City, especially the defense. But name me anything the Raiders do well. In particular, look at that horrible Oakland pass defense: 108.2 rating allowed, one interception, 22 measly sacks. Kansas City isn’t better than the Chargers, but they’re better than Oakland’s sinking ship. This line implies the two teams are only one point apart, an assumption I reject.
Panthers +2.5 vs. Vikings: I don’t consider Minnesota to be that clearly superior to Carolina, so grabbing points at home feels like a privilege (DVOA lists them as basically even, with Carolina one slot higher). It’s difficult to win three straight road games — Minnesota takes aim this week — and the Vikings might be a little flat after emptying the tank twice and the resulting praise.
Last Week: 4-1
Brad Evans Checks In:
#FadeTheNoise ATS Pick of the Week: Jacksonville -2.5. Seattle’s dismissal of Philly last week in a friendly environment has elevated recency bias. Over 70 percent of spread tickets side with the Seahawks. The public is completely buying into Russell Wilson and Co. stealing a victory poolside in Jacksonville. That, however, is the sucker bet. Assuming Jalen Ramsey suits up, the ‘Hawks will struggle to take flight. Jacksonville’s secondary, unquestionably the most unyielding unit in the league, has allowed just 5.7 yards per attempt and 189.0 passing yards per game. Wilson is a magician, but it’s doubtful he escapes the straight jacket. The Jags, 7-5 ATS on the year, cover and win outright. Fade the majority. Fearless Forecast: Jacksonville 20 Seattle 17.
#TeamHuevos Total of the Week: GB/CLE OVER 40.5. The winless Browns may be the object of futility, but with Josh Gordon, Corey Coleman, David Njoku, Duke Johnson and Isaiah Crowell on roster, they now possess the ingredients of an above average offense. DeShone Kizer would overthrow the Rockefeller Christmas Tree, evidenced in his three misses of Gordon downfield last week, but he owns measurable upside against a Packers defense conceding 7.8 yards per attempt. Couple that with Cleveland’s right turn against the run (4.27 ypc to RBs since Week 10) and a matchup featuring a pair of rather unexciting young quarterbacks packs some scoring punch. And don’t worry about the weather. Some light snow showers are expected along Lake Erie, but steady winds should not exceed 20 mph. Hammer happily. Fearless Forecast: Cleveland 27 Green Bay 20.
Dalton Del Don to close:
Supercontest: Last week was a good one, as I went 5-0 in the SuperContest, won my best bet (Seattle +5.5) and also my Teaser of the Week (NE -2 and Jax -2.5), which was a rarity in a year I’ve struggled ATS. In other words, don’t expect a repeat in Week 14. Nevertheless, my partner and I went dog heavy in the SC, taking the Raiders (+4), Browns (+3), 49ers (+3), Cardinals (+3) and Dolphins (+11).
Bet of the Week: The 49ers won outright as underdogs last week and are once again getting three points on the road (making Jimmy Garoppolo one of the biggest line-moving players in the NFL this season). The 49ers are getting healthier, more accustomed to Kyle Shanahan’s scheme and competent QB play for the first time all season. Jimmy G should have no problem moving the ball against a banged-up Houston defense, and Tom Savage sports a 5:13 TD:turnover ratio over six starts. Take 49ers +3. BET = $110 to win $100