Three Ways the Election Could Draw Out
Two presidential campaigns are underway: One to win on Election Day, the other to win after it.
President Obama and Mitt Romney are each preparing for recounts, confusion over voter-eligibility rules, and even the chance of a tie in the Electoral College. A close election, as this one will almost certainly be, means all three scenarios are on the table.
In 2000, it took until Dec. 12 for lawyers and courts to settle on a White House winner. This year, there are three ways the presidential battle could last past Tuesday.
Florida’s infamous 2000 presidential recount is the first thing that comes to mind. While election experts in Florida say things have changed, observers looking for a drawn-out election should focus on Ohio. The Buckeye State orders a recount if the margin between the top two candidates is within one-fourth of a percentage point of the total votes cast. But such a recount would begin only after the election results are certified in each individual county — and the deadline for that is 21 days from now.
Provisional ballots are another potential stumbling point. Though Republicans pushed to tighten voting requirements in many states, few of their proposals passed or survived legal challenges. That’s left the voting landscape largely unchanged.
But several battlegrounds are notable exceptions. In Ohio, every eligible voter was sent an application for an absentee ballot. If a voter applies for an absentee ballot, disregards it, and shows up to vote on Election Day, they must cast a provisional ballot—and those can’t be counted until 11 days from now.
There’s also the case of a tie in the Electoral College, which is extremely unlikely (analyst Nate Silver of The New York Times estimates the chance is less than 1 percent). But it is possible. In such a case, the next Congress, not voters, would pick the country’s president and vice president when it convenes in January. Read more
—Alex Roarty
NATIONAL JOURNAL’S PRESIDENTIAL RACE REPORT
An Ohio Vote Recount Could Be a Mess
[National Journal, 11/5/12] If a close race demands a recount in Ohio, conditions are ripe for a repeat of the delays, confusion, and chaos that racked the Sunshine State in 2000. Part of the problem is that swing states such as Ohio haven’t adopted the reforms that Florida enacted after its infamous recount.
A Last Push in Columbus
[Columbus Dispatch, 11/6/12] Ohio has been the center of the political universe for the last several weeks as analysts have called it a “must-win.” The Buckeye State’s 18 electoral votes could be make or break for either campaign.
First Votes Tallied in Two N.H. Villages
[NBC News, 11/6/12] The first votes of the 2012 general election have already been tallied in two small villages in northern New Hampshire, who cast their ballots shortly after midnight. Obama and Romney tied with 5 votes a piece in Dixville Notch. In Hart’s Location, Obama secured 23 votes, while Romney got 9 votes and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earned one.
Obama Spends Election Day in Chicago While Romney Campaigns
[National Journal, 11/6/12] While Romney is doing last-minute campaigning in Pennsylvania and Ohio, Obama has opted to remain in Chicago, conducting several satellite interviews in battleground states.
Mormon Press Office: Church’s Image Survived the Campaign
[Washington Post, 11/6/12] Ever since Romney began running for president six years ago, the Mormon Church’s press office has acted as the church’s frontline against media coverage that reflected badly upon, or wildly distorted, the church’s image. Now, finally, the office is breathing a sigh of relief.
Why 2012 Turned Small
[Politico, 11/6/12] At the core of the complaints about this election cycle is a paradox: The 2012 campaign seemed grotesquely bloated and all-pervasive, at the same time it seemed the opposite – miniature and ephemeral. Politico’s John Harris and Jonathan Martin explain.
Officials Rush to Find Ways for the Storm-Tossed to Vote
[New York Times, 11/5/12] New Jersey and New York allowed voters uprooted by Hurricane Sandy to cast provisional ballots anywhere in their states. But many voters already confronted confusion and signs of chaos as they sought to vote on Monday, or to figure out where to vote on Tuesday.
Sandy Survivors Face Voting – and Another Storm
[CNN, 11/5/12] One week after super-storm Sandy beat up the Northeast, tearing apart homes up and down the coast, voters are facing chaos at the polls. But they now have another problem on the horizon: A nor-easter is coming.
Presidential Campaigns Greet Iowans One Last Time
[Cedar Rapids Gazette, 11/5/12] It all began for the president back in 2008 when then-Sen. Obama won the Iowa caucuses over then-Sen. Hillary Clinton. On Monday night, an emotional Obama asked Iowans to deliver a win in the Hawkeye State for four more years in the White House.
Michelle Obama Rallies Floridians
[NBC News, 11/5/12] First Lady Michelle Obama rallied a crowd in Orlando, Fla., on Monday night, pleading with voters to get to the polls early: “Don't let anybody push you out of line,” the first lady told the crowd. “Don't let any delays deter you.”
Post-Sandy Gallup Poll Shows Tight Presidential Race
[Gallup, 11/5/12] A Monday Gallup poll showed Romney and Obama locked in a dead heat among likely voters nationwide. The results are consistent with other recent surveys, but they are a marked departure for Gallup, which had shown Romney holding a comfortable edge before Hurricane Sandy forced a suspension of the poll.
Presidency May Rest of Minority Turnout, Uptick Over 2008
[National Journal, 11/5/12] More than ever, Obama’s hopes depend on galvanizing a fast-growing group of eligible minority voters. NJ’s Next America team will track the percentages of white and nonwhite voters by state throughout Election Day.
Ryan Rallies Nevada One Last Time as Campaign Shifts to True Battleground
[Las Vegas Review Sun, 11/5/12] GOP vice presidential running mate Paul Ryan spent his last campaign day in battleground Nevada, telling Nevadans that they still have the power to deliver the presidency to Romney.
Pa. Outcome Could Affect Down-Ballot Races – and the Tenor of Contests for Years
[Philadelphia Inquirer, 11/6/12] A late surge in GOP activity in Pennsylvania has Romney hoping to become the first Republican nominee to carry the state in nearly a quarter century. The outcome here may influence high-profile ballot races and determine the tenor of campaigns in the Keystone State for years to come.
In Tampa, Fla., Some Worried Voters Show up Early
[Los Angeles Times, 11/5/12] After early voting in Florida closed Saturday, five counties began handing out absentee ballots as an alternative. The move is expected to help Obama (the Republican legislature has cut the number of early voting days from 14 to eight).
