Three things to watch for as Nashville SC hosts Toronto FC, including score prediction

Toronto FC historically has been a thorn in Nashville SC's side.

Despite finishing 26th, 27th and 29th in the Supporters' Shield race the past three seasons, Toronto has taken points from Nashville in five straight matchups. NSC upset Toronto in the 2020 playoffs and won the teams' first meeting in 2021, but has gone 0-2-3 in the series since.

Nashville (2-4-5, 11 points) will try to start a new chapter against Toronto on Wednesday (7:30 p.m. CT, Apple TV) at Geodis Park. It will face a side that's much improved from 2023's last-place finish — TFC (6-5-1, 19 points) is fourth in the Eastern Conference, nine spots ahead of Nashville.

Here's what to watch for, as well as our score prediction:

Toronto has turned things around

Toronto was easily the league's worst team last season, losing 15 of its final 16 games. But in its first full season under John Herdman, who previously coached the Canada men's national team, TFC has already surpassed its 2023 win total.

"John's done a very good job with them," Nashville coach Gary Smith said. "There's a lot of changes there."

Prince Owusu leads Toronto with five goals, though Italian stars Federico Bernardeschi and Lorenzo Insigne are the biggest names. Bernardeschi (three goals, three assists) has gotten back to form after registering just seven goal contributions in 2023, though he'll miss Wednesday's match after picking up a red card Saturday against New York City FC.

Insigne (two goals, one assist) played 14 minutes against NYCFC in his return from a hamstring injury that kept him out seven weeks.

Toronto also features former Lipscomb star Tyrese Spicer, who has two goals and an assist in eight games. The striker was the No. 1 pick in December's MLS SuperDraft.

Nashville has been strongest at home

While Nashville fell to 1-4-1 on the road with Saturday's loss at Charlotte FC, its results have been far better at Geodis. Across all competitions, NSC is 3-1-5 at home and has 18 goals in nine games, including a 4-1 win over CF Montreal on May 4.

Nashville's defense was equally solid in both games, but Smith thought forwards Hany Mukhtar and Sam Surridge, who had a hat trick against Montreal, got "a little bit isolated" against Charlotte. In addition, Smith believed Charlotte's turf field dulled the attack somewhat.

"It's a much better feeling waking up in your own bed, playing at Geodis in front of your own fans," winger Jacob Shaffelburg said. "That's probably the biggest thing."

Jacob Shaffelburg adapting to new role

Shaffelburg, who began his career with Toronto, was NSC's hottest attacker to start the season, with six goal contributions in 10 games. But injuries and defensive struggles led Smith to overhaul the back line, switching from a back four to a formation with three center backs and Shaffelburg as a left-sided wing back.

The role requires plenty of defending, something Shaffelburg has admittedly never liked much. But the Canadian international is growing an enjoyment for it by focusing on winning one-on-one battles. Smith thought his performance against Montreal exemplified that, as the speedy Shaffelburg "saw it as a real challenge" to limit Ruan, Montreal's similarly fast right back.

"I kind of use the first five, 10 minutes to figure out what's going on, who I'm going against, and then go off that and use my instincts," Shaffelburg said.

Nashville SC vs. Toronto FC score prediction

Nashville 2, Toronto 0: Nashville's attack remains solid at home, and Toronto doesn't threaten much with one of its designated players limited and another suspended.

MORE: How hat trick might get Nashville SC's Sam Surridge 'back on the straight and narrow'

Jacob Shames can be reached by email at jshames@gannett.com and on Twitter @Jacob_Shames.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Nashville SC vs. Toronto FC: Score prediction, what to watch for