The three big ways Donald Trump could stick it to California if elected president | Opinion

There is a special place in Donald Trump’s heart for California. The former president frequently speaks of the state in the past tense of an obituary.

“This is not a great state any more.”

“The place is failing.”

Gavin Newsom, the governor, has “destroyed California.”

Opinion

Newsom has been an effective political surrogate for the current president, Democrat Joe Biden, in his bid to defeat Trump for a second consecutive election. If Biden wins, California has a friend in the White House.

Then there is the other possible outcome.

President Trump and Governor Newsom have tangled before. The disagreements were many. The sequel to this relationship is a drama whose details are hard to predict.

But conflict is a given. If Trump were to make Newsom a favorite political punching bag, with California suffering as collateral damage, here are three bad outcomes that could occur in the Golden State.

High Speed Rail

The first leg of a high speed rail line in California is almost within reach. Biden recently advanced construction with a much-needed $3.1 billion in federal funds, with costs to date totaling nearly $30 billion. With another $4.9 billion in federal help, the California High Speed Rail Authority has said it would have the money to complete a 171-mile segment to operate trains between Bakersfield and Merced.

Newsom is all on board. The federal funding “comes at a critical turning point, providing the project new momentum.”

But if California is too receive the federal money necessary to actually run the trains, it will come from the next administration.

One of Biden’s signature achievements, his bipartisan infrastructure package, is a five-year deal. “Only two years of the five years are complete,” said Micah Florez, a high speed rail authority spokesman.

There is no mystery where Trump stands on this project. He has called it a “green disaster.” He has previously cut off funding for the project and even requested the state to return some federal funds to Washington.

The consequence: If Trump turns off the funding spigot yet again, Newsom and the next governor would have to find state money to finish the project against competing state needs, or ask voters via a bond. Good luck with either.

The Colorado River

Seven states and two countries (don’t forget Mexico) rely on this river as an indispensable source of supply for 40 million people. Rising temperatures and drought will reduce its supply. It will fall to the next administration to divvy up less water when the current management plan expires in 2026.

California’s position on matters Colorado, particularly to the other states, can reek of privilege. More than a century of various political acts and agreements, collectively known as The Law of The River, has given California the most water and, in theory, the top priority. Were a presidential administration to ever impose such seniority, the political swing states of Arizona and greater Las Vegas would lose river supplies before California would lose a drop.

At the moment, all parties are avoiding a conflict thanks, again, to Biden administration money. The same infrastructure package had more than $2.5 billion set aside for the Colorado. Team Biden is now burning through the money by paying California water users such as the Imperial Irrigation District to temporarily use less water.

This has only delayed a day of reckoning to reduce the use of this river by perhaps a quarter.

John Fleck, a prolific Colorado River author, views it this way:

“During the first Trump administration, the Interior Department’s appointees did a terrific job of insulating Colorado River management from the crazy. We’ve got no guarantee that would happen next time around. That creates a big risk to California on two fronts.

First, the Secretary of Interior has a huge amount of untested legal authority over who gets water from Lake Mead, and how much, in times of shortage. That would be a handy lever for a Trump administration out to punish California.

Second, if part of the solution to the Colorado River’s problems is to pay senior rights holders like the Imperial Irrigation District to use less water, that would require the cooperation of whoever sits in the White House. A Trump White House eager to punish California would be a huge problem on that path.”

The consequences: Trump could trigger a civil war inside California among its Colorado River users, urban Southern California and desert agriculture. That would be a nightmare for Newsom. California could try to defend its privilege/seniority via litigation against the rest of the Southwest. Good luck counting on any Supreme Court siding with California and blessing a not-so-hypothetical depopulation of Las Vegas.

Undocumented Immigrants

Trump’s stated plan is crystal clear when it comes to undocumented immigrants in California and throughout the country. He is on record, repeatedly, planning for “the largest domestic deportation operation in American history.”

California has an estimated 1.85 million undocumented residents. That’s nearly the population of the Sacramento region.

There is rhetoric about mass deportation and then there is the reality.

“We don’t have enough prison space. We don’t have enough judges. We have something called due process,” said Christopher Thornberg, founder of the Beacon Economics research and consulting firm based in Los Angeles. “If he started throwing out basic constitutional protections, we got a lot more to worry about than the labor supply in the state of California.”

Recently, California has lost more residents to other states than have moved here. The population increases that California has experienced have been because of immigration, but they have not been large enough to offset an unprecedented drop in population in recent years.

Immigration “was basically zero by the end of the (first) Trump administration,” Thornberg said. He predicts a repeat.

The consequences: Expect labor shortages for “any part of the economy that uses the highest share of low-skilled workers,” Thornberg said. And with shortage comes a “higher cost of service.”

As Newsom continues to go on the road to pitch for Biden for President, he has some serious self-interest to do so. It’s better to have a friend than foe as the nation’s chief executive. The difference couldn’t be any starker.