Texas heat wave forecast to worsen, likely putting 40 million people under alerts

The brutal heat wave punishing Texas is expected to worsen and expand in the coming days, according to forecasting models, before extending its reach to other states.

"The never-ending and dangerous heat wave in Texas will persist through the weekend into next week," the National Weather Service said on its website Friday. "Severe thunderstorms are likely across much of the High Plains the next day or two before moving into the Midwest over the weekend."'

On Friday, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma were all placed under heat alerts that are expected to last into next week.

Record heat

High temperature records were broken this week in cities like San Angelo, which hit 114 degrees Fahrenheit on Tuesday, and Del Rio, which recorded a high of 113 that day. The heat index, the combination of high humidity and soaring temperatures, measures what the air feels like during such events. The mix of high temperatures and humidity is particularly dangerous because it inhibits the body from being able to cool down.

On Friday, heat index values could reach as high as 120°F.

Such stifling and even life-threatening conditions are expected to persist at least through next week.

“The core of the heat may focus more over southern and western Texas late this week, before expanding again next weekend into the following week,” the National Weather Service said in a statement Wednesday.

As the heat wave expands, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kansas and Missouri are all forecast to see triple-digit temperatures by the middle of next week. In all, more than 40 million people could find themselves under heat alerts before conditions abate, double the number of those already under one.

Connecting heat waves and climate change

While heat waves are nothing new in the history of the world, rising global temperatures due to the burning of fossil fuels are making them worse, numerous studies have shown.

Simply put, as average temperatures have warmed, the number of summer days with extreme heat has followed suit.

Another factor at work is that higher temperatures are causing changes to the jet stream, the bands of wind in the Earth's upper atmosphere that help guide weather patterns.

“Climate change, as our own work shows, is leading to more of these very persistent ‘stuck’ summer jet stream patterns, where, for example, a big high-pressure system with hot sinking air gets stuck in one particular region of the country,” University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann told USA Today. “That’s what happened during the 2021 Pacific Northwest heat dome and something very similar is playing out right now over the south central U.S. and northern Mexico.”

‘Ring of fire’ severe weather

Experts note that the heat dome currently over Texas is causing an uptick in severe weather such as the tornado that devastated the small town of Matador on Wednesday, killing at least four people, and the one that leveled parts of Perryton on June 15, killing three.

“Excessive heat feeds/fuels storms from the south, adding energy,” WFLA-TV meteorologist Jeff Berardelli tweeted Thursday. “The edge of the ring of fire marks the contrast between extreme heat and warm, and that zone tends to have stronger winds aloft which aid supercell intensity & forward speed.”

How to protect yourself from excessive heat

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes on its website that “more than 700 people die from extreme heat every year in the United States,” and studies have shown that the number will increase as climate change continues to worsen.

The agency provide valuable tips on how to protect against extreme heat events. These include staying in air-conditioned buildings as much as possible, not relying on fans as a cooling device, drinking plenty of water, limiting the use of stoves and ovens (which increase indoor temperatures) and wearing loose-fitting, lightweight clothing.