Technical Focus: Overview of Recent Market Changes

Jamie Saettele, CMT

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Markets have experienced important behavior changes in the last few days. Here is a quick update.

The EUR/USD gap through trendline resistance is a great way for a ‘sizeable move’ to begin. A trendline confluence is near 1.1000 and could influence for a pause. After that, the long term median line is near 1.1100. If that breaks, then start getting creative on where this could go.

Likewise, the DXY drop below trendline support indicates a potentially major trend change. If DXY bounces, then pay attention to the underside of the line (99.50s) for resistance.

The Q2 USD/JPY forecast has called the low so far. That forecast remarked that “108.30/81 intersects with the developing channel from the January high in mid-April. The channel is important because if the decline from January is corrective then price shouldn’t trade below the lower channel boundary for any extended length of time.” Low thus far is 108.12 on April 17th. The 2 legs of the drop from January are nearly identical in length and form by the way. Pay attention to 110.10 (former lows) for support.

USD/CAD has completed and inverse head and shoulders pattern. The pattern is valid while above 1.3409 (Monday’s low). The measured objective from the pattern is 1.4100. There is a Fibonacci level to pay attention to at 1.3839 too.

Proposed support in gold (1263) is being tested now. Failure to hold here would shift focus to the next horizontal level near 1240.

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