AT&T Unlikely To See Competition In Its Bid For Time Warner

AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) has proposed an acquisition of Time Warner Inc (NYSE: TWX) for $107.50 per share

Wunderlich’s Matthew Harrigan mentioned that the bid was in-line with expectations of Time Warner’s 2017 public market upside, implying that “unless the deal is disruptive to TWX's creative culture, it is at least a "push" for Ma Bell.”

AT&T’s management believe the deal would be manageable in the context of the company’s capital structure and dividends, which also implies that the market is undervaluing the free cash flow generation and potential long-term growth, which is likely to at least be in line with the overall S&P 500.

Related Link: Credit Suisse Downgrades Time Warner Citing Valuation Following Offer From AT&T

Regulatory Risk

Harrigan believes that “large mergers, especially involving media content and distribution, have heavily politicized approval processes.”

The analyst expressed skepticism regarding D.C.'s posture on the Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable Inc (NYSE: TWC) merger, saying that “Ma Bell has even more formidable national video and mobile distribution – especially with the advent of 5G and interim "4.5G."”

Accretion From The Deal

Harrigan believes AT&T is well positioned for 4K with the favorable topology of DIRECTV (NASDAQ: DTV) and its wireless capabilities, which are likely to drive innovation in short-form programming, integrated with social media.

The analyst believes the merger of Time Warner with AT&T would lead to “modest” synergies of $1 billion, and become “moderately accretive” to the adjusted EPS and free cash flow per share within a year post closing.

Harrigan maintained a Buy rating on Time Warner, with a price target of $106

Do you have ideas for articles/interviews you'd like to see more of on Benzinga? Please email feedback@benzinga.com with your best article ideas. One person will be randomly selected to win a $20 Amazon gift card!

Latest Ratings for TWX

Oct 2016

Evercore ISI Group

Downgrades

Buy

Neutral

Oct 2016

Atlantic Equities

Downgrades

Overweight

Neutral

Oct 2016

Moffett Nathanson

Downgrades

Buy

Neutral

View More Analyst Ratings for TWX
View the Latest Analyst Ratings

See more from Benzinga

© 2016 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Advertisement