Swing state polling suggests Donald Trump's 2020 re-election chances are much better than presumed
The 2020 US presidential election is on a knife edge according to new polling of battleground states that shows Donald Trump performing much better than expected.
Mr Trump, the US president, may be way behind possible Democrat candidates in polls of the whole of America but a different picture emerges when focussing on the swing states.
Surveys for The New York Times looked at the six states that Mr Trump won most narrowly in the 2016 election - Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
On average across those states Mr Trump trails Joe Biden, the former US vice president seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, by just a single percentage point, according to CNN analysis.
The signs are even more encouraging for the president against other possible contenders, with Mr Trump beating Bernie Sanders by one point and Elizabeth Warren by three points.
The numbers, which are much better for Mr Trump than in nation-wide surveys, suggests that in the places that will define who wins the 2020 campaign he is in good shape.
They will also add credence to the line being pushed by the Biden camp that their candidate is best placed to take on Mr Trump given his moderate politics and Pennsylvanian roots.
Mr Sanders and Ms Warren, the senators for Vermont and Massachusetts respectively, have both outlined a left-wing policy platform unlike anything presented by recent Democratic presidential nominees.
Their visions - including government-funded healthcare for all and action to tackle Wall Street excess - have energised some Democrats but left others warning it could put off moderate voters.
Mr Trump already appears to be laying the groundwork for a re-election campaign that will compare his record to the “radical socialists” who he claims now lead the Democratic Party. The vote is on November 3, 2020.
The poll numbers suggest that the impeachment inquiry, which has been running for more than a month now and is backed by most Americans, has not fatally dented Mr Trump’s hopes of re-election.
Yesterday the Democrat-controlled committee leading the inquiry released transcripts of behind-closed-doors testimony from two key witnesses in the Ukraine scandal, which revolves around Mr Trump’s attempts to get the country to investigate Mr Biden.
Accounts from Marie Yovanovitch, the former US ambassador to Ukraine, and Michael McKinley, a top State Department official, provided more detail into the saga that triggered the process of removing him from office.
Ms Yovanovitch, who was ousted from her role, said she believed she was the victim of a conservative smear campaign which was in part pushed by Mr Trump’s personal attorney Rudy Giuliani.
Mr McKinley said that he lobbied inside the State Department for a public statement of support for Ms Yovanovitch to be issued but one was not issued.
Mr Trump has defended his actions, arguing that he was justified in pushing for an investigation into Mr Biden because there was “corruption” to be uncovered. Mr Biden has always denied any wrongdoing.
On Monday, a US federal appeals court ruled that Mr Trump’s tax returns can be turned over to New York prosecutors by his personal accountant.
Mr Trump has long opposed the release of his tax returns. His lawyers are expected to appeal, meaning a final decision would be made by the Supreme Court.
