Swing State Early Voting
What can we glean from the early voting to this point in key swing states? Unfortunately for prognosticators, not much. Still, looking at voting trends thus far in several swing states and comparing those numbers with the 2008 early-voting numbers offers a glimpse into which way this year's voters lean. And while states don't report early-vote tallies for President Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, many states do make voters register for a party when voting. Registration information is a useful indication of the which way the early electorate is voting.
Below, "Total Votes Cast" represents the number of early mail-in and in-person votes reported as of Tuesday. "Party Registration Breakdown" shows the party affiliation of these early voters in states where that information is available. The "Analysis" section compares these two categories to their 2008 early-voting counterparts.
These numbers are updated as of Oct. 30 and will be updated each day with new information. Early voting will continue up until several days prior to the election in some states.
COLORADO
Total Votes Cast: 965,510
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 35.6%, Republican 38.4%, None/Other 26.0%
Analysis: In 2008, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a 1.8 percentage point margin and Obama won the state by 8.9 percentage points. In 2012, the 2.5 percentage point advantage for registered Republicans indicates the state will be more closely contested than '08.
FLORIDA
Total Votes Cast: 2,223,840
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 42.4%, Republican 41.0%, None/Other 16.6%
Analysis: Republicans usually win mail-in early ballots by a wide margin in Florida — 12 points or higher — according to Michael McDonald, who oversees the United States Election Project at George Mason University. Democrats have closed the gap through in-person early voting.
IOWA
Total Votes Cast: 497,725
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 44.2%, Republican 32.1%, None/Other 23.7%
Analysis: Romney has slightly narrowed the strong lead the Democrats built — 18 percentage points — in 2008 early Iowa voting. But Obama went on to win the state by 9.5 percentage points in ’08, meaning Romney will still need very strong Election Day results to take the state.
NEVADA
Total Votes Cast: 432,748
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 45.2%, Republican 37.0%, None/Other 17.8%
Analysis: According to McDonald, Nevada’s 2012 early electorate closely resembles the state’s 2008 electorate. Obama won the state by 12.2 percentage points in 2008, and early indications are he’ll win it again in 2012.
NORTH CAROLINA
Total Votes Cast: 1,700,128
Party Registration Breakdown: Democratic 49.2%, Republican 31.2%, None/Other 19.6%
Analysis: At this point in 2008, Democrats had a crushing lead among early voters — 55.9 percent to 27.2 percent — and Obama only narrowly won the state by 0.3 percentage points. Romney has closed that gap enough that the latest data indicate a small lead for him in the state.
OHIO
Total Votes Cast: 1,006,398
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Most urban, Democratic-leaning counties are on pace to exceed 2008 early-voting levels. But so are Republican-leaning rural counties. This indicates that Ohio will be a tightly contested race, as predicted.
VIRGINIA
Total Votes Cast: 254,074
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Early 2012 voting in Virginia has skewed heavily toward females and the 60-plus demographic. Unlike 2008, the state is allowing in-person early voting in addition to early ballots by mail, meaning early-vote totals will likely exceed ’08’s total of 336,743.
WISCONSIN
Total Votes Cast: 101,253 (in-person only)
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Wisconsin does not have comparable statistics from 2008, so little can be determined about which way the state is leaning in 2012 as compared to the 2008 election.
