Susan Hall 'running out' of time to close gap on Sadiq Khan as new poll puts him 24 points ahead

Time is “running out” for Susan Hall to close the gap on Sadiq Khan as a new poll put him 24 points ahead with just three weeks to go to polling day on May 2.

The Labour candidate is on 50 per cent, with his Tory challenger 26 per cent, according to the Savanta survey for the Centre for London.

Liberal Democrat Rob Blackie is on ten per cent, Green Party candidate Zoe Garbett nine per cent, and Reform UK’s Howard Cox two per cent.

The latest findings suggest Ms Hall has failed so far to shift the polls in her favour, as they have hardly changed since last November.

In Inner London, Mr Khan is ahead by 57 per cent to 19 per cent, and in Outer London by 46 per cent to 31 per cent.

Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta, said: “Our latest research shows limited movement since our last voting intention poll, and with Sadiq Khan’s lead continuing to be a commanding 24 points, time is running out for Susan Hall.”

A survey in March by Savanta gave Mr Khan a 24-point lead, and one by YouGov in November had him 25 points ahead.

Antonia Jennings, chief executive at Centre for London, stressed: “With just three weeks left for Susan Hall to get voters onside, it’s looking likely that Sadiq Khan will be elected for his third term as Mayor of London in a few weeks.

“However, nothing is certain. As these elections will be the first conducted under first past the post voting, and with almost four in ten of those likely to vote for Khan considering voting for the Green Party’s Zoë Garbett, there is still a great deal less clarity going into these elections than the Labour Party would hope.”

The series of polls on the London mayoral race may be overplaying Mr Khan's vote, and underplaying support for Ms Hall as the Tories as a party are less popular than she is in the capital so Londoners may be reluctant to admit they may back her.

In April 2021, Tory mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey trailed Mr Khan by around 20 points and the gap in the final result was half this which is believed to have been partly down to “undecided” voters opting late to back the former and the low turnout.

Now, of those who say they are currently voting for Mr Khan, when asked “to what extent would you say you are likely or unlikely to consider voting for each of the following other candidates instead”, 37 per cent stated they are likely to consider voting for Ms Garbett, 27 per cent for Mr Blackie, and 20 per cent for Ms Hall.

Nearly half of the Labour contender’s backers, who are aged 18 to 34, say they are likely to consider voting for Ms Garbett.

For Ms Hall, 34 per cent of her supporters say they are likely to consider voting for Mr Cox, 24 per cent for Mr Blackie, 22 per cent for Ms Garbett, and just 15 per cent for Mr Khan.

Mr Hopkins added: “There is a potential glimmer of hope for the Conservatives’ candidate. Our research suggests that significant proportions of both Khan and Hall voters would consider voting for other candidates, but that is likely to present a greater threat to Khan as the incumbent, than Hall.”

He continued: “His big polling leads might mean some of his core voters, including young Londoners, could believe it’s ‘safe’ to go for the Greens, despite a new voting system making this a riskier strategy for those that are unenthused by Khan but ultimately prefer him to the Conservative candidate.

“Coupled with Hall’s voters looking mainly at Reform UK, an unproven electoral machine with limited popularity in London, if any one of the main candidates could be squeezed, Khan looks most likely.”

* Savanta interviewed 1,592 Londoners aged 18+ online between 5-8 April 2024. Data were weighted. Full tables will be available at savanta.com/knowledge-centre/published-polls/