Survival pool advice: Packers' pick not without danger
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Resources: Yahoo survival pool pick distribution • SurvivorGrid.com
Week 6’s biggest killer: Pittsburgh Steelers losing to Miami Dolphins (37.06 percent)
Week 6’s biggest winner: Buffalo Bills over San Francisco 49ers (26.36 percent)
Total Week 6 eliminations: 41.1 percent of remaining entries
Perfect entries remaining on Yahoo: 55,899
Over a third of us zeroed in on last Sunday’s Steelers-Dolphins matchup as an easy way to skate through the weekend. Over a third of us were summarily eliminated.
And that’s why survival leagues can be so frustrating. It seemed like we had an easy weekend ahead of us. The Steelers were elite, the Dolphins were decidedly not and we’d let the rest of the schedule spring a few upsets to whittle down the nation’s survival league pools.
I felt so confident in the Steelers winning on the road that I even talked my wife out of picking the Bills over the Niners, advising her that Buffalo still had a trio of winnable home games on the schedule. Plus, chances to pick the Steelers before Christmas looked slim, so why not get them out of the way with what was almost assuredly going to be a blowout?
We know what happened next. Ben Roethlisberger’s meniscus wilted and Jay Ajayi turned into the second coming of Mercury Morris (without all those drug charges, anyway). J
Just like that it was wait ’til next year for a big portion of players, including myself and my wife.
In case you’re wondering, it’s been a long four days in the Kaduk household.
Thing is, I don’t think we’ve seen the end of these big eliminations either. With the league so mushy in the middle, I think most teams are capable of losing to the Browns or the Dolphins or the Jets on any given week. Surviving a survival league in 2016 is going to require a good plan, a strong constitution and probably a healthy amount of luck …
Onto Week 7 …
Safe picks: Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals over Cleveland Browns
These two games are dominating the picks distribution page and for good reason. The Bears and Browns are both terrible and both the Packers and Bengals are in need of an easy win at home.
So which should you pick? I’m not completely sold on either one and I’m still of the belief that the Browns are soon going to bite the hordes that have been following them around the survivor grid.
But you should probably go with the Bengals if you’re set on picking one of the big ones and didn’t pick the Bengals over the Dolphins in Week 4. Your best option for Cincinnati down the road are home games against two NFC East opponents: Washington in Week 8 and Philadelphia in Week 13. Not a slam dunk with either opponent, by any means, so go with the Bengals over a Browns team that has lost 37-3 and 30-0 its last two visits down south.
As for the Packers, why mess with the short week they’ve been handed after that loss to Dallas and the fallout from the Eddie Lacy injury? Brian Hoyer has at least been moving the ball for the Bears and if Chicago somehow figures out how to move the ball over a goal line instead of settling for a field goal, there could be an upset in the works. Green Bay has home games against Indianapolis and Houston coming up and, honestly, I’d even feel more comfortable picking the Packers at Chicago in Week 15 than rolling the dice on a short week with Knile Davis getting carries three days after arriving in town.
Sneaky play: New England Patriots over Pittsburgh Steelers
This pick isn’t available to everyone any more, but if you didn’t pick the Patriots either of the last two weeks, you can reap a nice reward in Week 7. The Patriots are traveling to Pittsburgh, yes, but they’re facing Landry Jones instead of Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers defense that caved against the Dolphins is still battling the injury report. In an unpredictable week, there are worse places to hide out and avoid damage that might happen elsewhere.
If you don’t have the Patriots, the Broncos welcoming Brock Osweiler back to Mile High isn’t a bad idea. Denver doesn’t hold a lot of future value and Trevor Siemian should be able to do enough to make sure Houston doesn’t leave with a win.
Stay away: Kansas City Chiefs over New Orleans Saints
The Saints are a pretty maddening team when it comes to survival pools. They’re not very good and they’re going to lose their fair share of games in 2016. But with Drew Brees and that offense, you never know when they’re going to survive a shootout because of sheer firepower. I learned this the hard way when I picked them against San Diego a few weeks ago in one of the survival pools I’m in and they were able to quickly take advantage of the Chargers’ fourth quarter meltdown. I’m fine with skipping this game and saving the Chiefs for when Tampa Bay comes to town later this season.
Who are you picking this week?
