Super Tuesday is the first test of what next year’s House GOP will look like

A woman who allegedly tried to hit her ex-husband with a car. A 30-year-old who marketed a conspiracy-theory movie. A pastor whose previous campaign was mired in election fraud.

These are some of the candidates national Republicans are trying not to nominate this week.

The Super Tuesday primaries will serve as the most comprehensive test yet of whether the party can mount a strong campaign to keep control of the House in November — and whether they will be able to avoid the utter chaos that stymied Congress over the last year.

Five states are holding nominating contests for more than 100 House districts, narrowing down fields in key races in states that include North Carolina, Texas and California. Even just a handful of these seats can help determine which party controls Congress in 2025.

But many of Tuesday’s primaries are in open deep-red districts that will shape the contours of the House GOP conference. And if the majority comes down to a razor-thin margin — again — the impact of those new members will ripple far beyond their individual districts.

All the contenders are conservative, and many profess deep allegiance to former President Donald Trump. But there are huge differences in style and personality among them. That has some establishment Republicans worried and has spurred intraparty efforts to intervene in the contests.

Two super PACs bankrolled by Republican megadonors have reported spending over $6 million and counting across five districts to block candidates that strategists fear would not be serious about legislating or would cause more turbulence in a deeply factionalized House GOP.

“It's not just who wins it in a partisan sense, but what kind of member are you getting?” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) of the importance of primary season. “We've gotten some great members, and we've got some other members that honestly I think didn't come here to get much done.”

North Carolina

Several familiar names are on the ballot in North Carolina. And the GOP establishment isn’t welcoming them back warmly.

One big name: Mark Harris, the pastor whose apparent victory in a 2018 swing seat was tossed out when investigators found evidence of widespread mail ballot fraud.

Two outside groups have mobilized to block Harris’ comeback bid in the 8th Congressional District. Conservatives for American Excellence — the group bankrolled by hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin and investment banker Warren Stephens — has poured in $170,000 to oppose Harris. America Leads Action, a super PAC backed by wealthy donors Jay Faison and Rob Walton, has dumped in $1.8 million.

“Frankly, it should come as no surprise the Swamp would do whatever it could to keep me out of Congress since I have committed to be a strong voice like Dan Bishop has been,” Harris said in a statement, referring to the district’s incumbent, who is leaving to run for state attorney general.

A slew of other candidates are in the running, including state Rep. John Bradford, who has an endorsement from Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) and ex-Union County Commissioner Chair Allan Baucom.

The Griffin-backed group has also spent close to $1 million in the open 6th Congressional District to block Bo Hines, a former college football player who lost a swing seat in 2022. Hines has support from the anti-tax group Club for Growth and faces former Rep. Mark Walker and lobbyist Addison McDowell, who snagged a Trump endorsement.

Both seats are open thanks to an aggressive Republican gerrymander that forced their Democratic incumbents into retirement. Given the new deep-red lean of the districts, the winners of the primaries will almost certainly come to Congress — though the races may extend into runoffs if no candidate earns 30 percent of the vote and the second-place candidate requests one.

“I think the Republican Party in Congress is in transition,” Bishop said. “I certainly think it needs to be solidified with change agents.”

Texas

A similar dynamic is playing out in two open seats in northeast Texas.

In the 26th Congressional District, left open by retiring Rep. Michael Burgess, Brandon Gill has pulled ahead of the crowded field, and it’s worrying some establishment players.

Gill is the 30-year-old son-in-law of Dinesh D’Souza, a conservative commentator pardoned by Trump for a felony campaign finance conviction. Gill, who helped D’Souza market his “2000 Mules” documentary promoting a conspiracy theory about the 2020 presidential election, has endorsements from Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

The Club for Growth has spent half a million dollars on Gill's behalf, but that’s dwarfed by spending from Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action, which have each put up roughly $1 million against him.

Gill’s campaign manager Andrew Leppert said in a statement that voters “aren’t fooled by the Swamp’s desperate lies and attempt to stop a true pro-Trump conservative.”

Also in the race: ex-Southlake Mayor John Huffman and Scott Armey, the son of former House Majority Leader Dick Armey.

“I'm not really interested in someone who wants to come up and represent a certain faction here in D.C.,” said Burgess, the 11-term retiring incumbent who is staying neutral. “I want them to be focused on the district. We've got a lot of serious problems.”

Rep. Kay Granger, in Texas’ 12th District, is also retiring, setting up another expensive primary.

Conservatives for American Excellence has put in around $600,000 in support of state Rep. Craig Goldman and to block his top opponent, John O’Shea.

"They have actually spent more on marketing our candidacy than we have,” O’Shea said in a statement. “Frankly though I am a bit disappointed in their efforts and would have thought they would have upped their game in attacking America First."

Goldman has an endorsement from the pragmatic Republican Main Street Partnership, while O’Shea has the backing of Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Texas Republicans expect Gill and O’Shea would be rabble-rousers in D.C.

“There's a real threat to the status quo that there hasn't been in a long time,” said Tarrant County Republican Party Chair Bo French. “I think it's a good day when Congress doesn't get anything done because usually, when they do things, they're screwing half the country.”

Another race in the state that could shape the GOP conference: Rep. Tony Gonzales’ primary in West Texas. After defying the party line on gun control, gay marriage and border security, he was censured by the state Republican Party. Julie Clark, the former Medina County Republican Party chair, who led the censure push, is now running against him, as is social media influencer Brandon Herrera.

Where else Republicans are playing against their own

North Carolina Republicans’ gerrymander left Democratic Rep. Don Davis’ 1st Congressional District as the only seat still in play. The Republican who makes it through the primary could determine the party’s prospects in November.

That race is a showdown between Laurie Buckhout, an Army veteran, and Sandy Smith, the 2022 nominee who has faced multiple allegations of domestic abuse — including threatening an ex-husband with a frying pan — all of which she has denied.

National Republicans are trying to block Smith from the nomination. The Congressional Leadership Fund, House Republicans’ main super PAC, has poured in over $300,000 to boost Buckhout out of fear that Smith’s baggage would prove toxic in a general election.

Both Buckhout and Smith have touted their conservative credentials. But Smith has been more unabashed about her far-right views, running prominently on the false claim that Trump won the 2020 election. That’s left some in the state worried about her ability to court swing voters if she were to be the nominee.

“If the election denying by Trump doesn't stop him from winning in North Carolina, then I'm not sure that election denying by Sandy Smith will stop her,” said Mark Edwards, chair of the Nash County Republican Party. “But the reverse is true. If Donald Trump wears thin on the public, … then I think the same thing will happen to Smith.”

Republicans are also fretting over California’s 22nd Congressional District. Moderate Rep. David Valadao is the party’s best bet to keep the Democratic-leaning district in GOP hands.

But the state’s jungle primary system, in which the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party, has left Democrats and Republicans worried about getting locked out of the seat. CLF has spent over $1 million to boost Valadao as he faces a challenge on the right from Chris Mathys.

Conservatives for American Excellence is also spending heavily in Alabama's 1st District, a safe GOP district where a rare member-on-member primary is underway. The group has dropped six figures against Republican Rep. Barry Moore, a House Freedom Caucus member who was drawn out of his district and is taking on Rep. Jerry Carl.