These Updating Maps Show Where Storm Henri Could Hit Hardest

Note: The maps below are no longer being updated.

As it approached the coast of new England on Sunday, Henri had weakened below hurricane strength but still threatened dangerous flooding from storm surge and heavy rain across a wide swath of the Northeast US.

The center of the storm made landfall at around 12.15 pm near Westerly, Rhode Island. At that time, its maximum sustained winds were around 60 mph.

Had it not weakened, Henri would have been the first hurricane to hit the region since Hurricane Bob in August 1991. Bob was the first Atlantic hurricane of the 1991 season. It made landfall in Rhode Island as a Category 2 hurricane, killing 18 people and causing around $3 billion in damage, when adjusted for inflation..

Forecast track and wind probabilities

Times shown are US Eastern Time. Peter Aldhous / BuzzFeed News / Via NOAA/NWS

This updating map shows the forecast track and winds from Henri. Use the control to switch between views showing the chances of hurricane-force winds (more than 74 mph) and tropical-storm-force winds (more than 39 mph).

Hazardous conditions will extend over a large area, with New York City being placed under a tropical storm warning on Saturday. Between 10 and 11 pm, Central Park experienced its wettest hour on record from Henri’s incoming rain bands. The governors of Rhode Island, New York, and Connecticut all declared states of emergency as the storm moved in.

Storm surge warnings and watches

Peter Aldhous / BuzzFeed News / Via NOAA/NWS

Flooding from surging seas is expected to be a major hazard from Henri. On Sunday morning, the NHC was predicting surges of up to five feet on Long Island and parts of New England. “The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the center warned.

Forecast track and rain in the next 24 hours

Times shown are US Eastern Time. Peter Aldhous / BuzzFeed News / Via NOAA/NWS

Heavy rain from the storm is expected to cause further flooding. This map shows the forecast track and anticipated rainfall over the coming day. “Henri is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday, with isolated maximum totals near 12 inches,” the NHC warned on Sunday. “Heavy rainfall from Henri may result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding.”

Forecast track and flooding

Times shown are US Eastern Time. Peter Aldhous / BuzzFeed News / Via NOAA/NWS

This map shows risks of flash flooding from rain in the coming 24 hours, together with longer-term forecasts of river flooding from stream gauges where those are available. Flooding began in parts of New York City and New Jersey on Saturday night.

Rain from tropical cyclones, especially if they move slowly after coming ashore, is a particular hazard in more developed urban areas, where paved surfaces prevent water from draining quickly. Henri is expected to slow after landfall and then make a turn to the east after passing through Massachusetts.

Henri is the third hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic season, following Elsa, which weakened to a tropical storm after entering the Caribbean, and Grace, which hit Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula as a Category 1 hurricane on Thursday morning. Grace then made a second landfall on the coast of central Mexico early on Saturday morning as a Category 3 storm, with maximum winds around 125 mph.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts that 2021 will be an above average Atlantic season, with 15 to 21 named storms and 7 to 10 hurricanes. 2020 was the busiest hurricane season on record with 30 named storms.

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