The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has had a banner October, pacing for a 2.1% monthly gain and fresh off an all-time high. Looking ahead to November, several stocks could extend the positive momentum, if history is any indicator, including travel concern Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK). On the flip side, red-hot real estate investment trust (REIT) stock Duke Realty Corp (NYSE:DRE) could be facing seasonal headwinds ahead of earnings.
ALK Stock Flies High in November
Below are the 25 best SPX stocks to own in November, looking back 10 years. Alaska Air stock easily tops the list, ending the month higher 100% of the time, and averaging a one-month gain of 10%, per data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White.
ALK shares have been on fire since skimming the $57 in late August, and marked a year-to-date high of $72 last Friday, Oct. 25, following well-received earnings and guidance. What's more, the stock has surged more than 30% since touching a four-year low of $53.39 in late March, breaking out to the upside recently after an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. From the security's current perch of $69.61, another 10% surge next month would put it around $76.57 -- north of its late 2018 highs.
A continued short squeeze could help keep the wind at ALK's back. Short interest has been dropping recently, but still accounts for nearly a week's worth of pent-up buying demand, at the airline stock's average pace of trading.
Plus, in light of the equity's post-earnings volatility crush, near-term options are attractively priced. The stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 24% sits in just the 11th percentile of its annual range, meaning now is an opportune time to speculate on ALK's short-term trajectory with options.
Duke Realty Stock Could Slip After Earnings
Duke Realty tops the list of the worst stocks to own in November, looking back 10 years at current S&P 500 components. The equity has ended the month higher just 20% of the time -- the worst of the group -- and has averaged a loss of roughly 3.2%.
DRE shares are on pace for their fifth straight gain today, and their eighth gain in nine sessions. What's more, the stock earlier notched a 12-year high of $35.72, and has rallied more than 37% in 2019, with pullbacks contained by its 100-day moving average. From DRE's current perch of $35.62, a 3.2% dip would put the shares around $34.48.
As alluded to earlier, Duke Realty is slated to report earnings after the close tomorrow, Oct. 30. After moving higher after each earnings release in 2018, DRE shares have reacted negatively after two of the last three earnings releases. On average, though, the stock has moved just 1.9% in the session after the firm's last eight quarterly reports.
Despite earnings on the horizon, DRE's near-term options remain relatively cheap. The stock's SVI of 23% is higher than just 15% of all other readings from the past 12 months, suggesting traders expecting another November pullback could scoop up near-term puts at a relative bargain.